Today’s five major financial market events: oil prices surpass $100, Adobe to announce earnings report

Investing.com - Futures linked to major U.S. stock indexes declined slightly as investors remain concerned about the escalating conflict in the Middle East. Oil prices surged again above $100 per barrel, with ships near a key southern Iranian waterway attacked, raising fears of ongoing supply disruptions. Gold stabilized but remains under pressure from inflation concerns triggered by rising oil prices. Adobe is set to release its latest earnings report, while oil giant Shell will also announce its results.

1. Futures Decline

On Thursday, U.S. stock index futures fell as oil prices once again rose above $100 per barrel, despite efforts to release large crude oil reserves to help offset supply disruptions caused by the Iran conflict.

As of 04:10 a.m. Eastern Time (17:10 Beijing Time), the Dow futures dropped 218 points, down 0.5%; S&P 500 futures fell 25 points, down 0.4%; Nasdaq 100 futures declined 93 points, down 0.4%.

On Wednesday, the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at its lowest level this year, reflecting market concerns that rising oil prices could hurt a range of U.S. companies and consumers.

However, the benchmark S&P 500 edged lower only slightly, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite rose modestly. Cloud computing giant Oracle’s better-than-expected earnings boosted market sentiment, with the company issuing an optimistic forecast for AI data center demand. U.S. February consumer price data also met expectations, though inflation outlooks have darkened as observers prepare for the impact of soaring oil prices.

While the ongoing U.S.-Israel joint strikes against Iran remain the main focus, other themes continue to simmer in the background, including anxiety in the private credit sector, ongoing uncertainty over U.S. tariffs, and concerns over the returns on massive AI investments.

2. Oil Prices Break Above $100

Oil prices briefly surged above the critical $100 per barrel level as the Iran conflict continued to escalate across much of the Middle East, with fears of supply disruptions showing little sign of easing.

As of 04:05 a.m. Eastern Time, global benchmark Brent crude futures rose 4.3% to $95.92 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) increased 3.8% to $90.54 per barrel.

Recent wild swings in oil prices highlight how sensitive investors are to the evolving Iran situation. Earlier this week, Brent crude soared close to $120 per barrel, the highest since 2022.

The core concern for the oil market remains the disruption of supplies through the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway off southern Iran that carries about one-fifth of the world’s oil and natural gas, most of which is shipped to Asia and Europe.

Threats of attacks on ships have caused nearly a halt in tanker traffic, with shipping companies struggling to obtain insurance for these perilous voyages, further constraining transit.

Iran has increased its attacks, and the U.S. Navy has refused to escort ships through the strait. At least six ships have been attacked in the past day, and Bahrain reported its oil facilities were targeted.

Despite the International Energy Agency’s largest-ever release of emergency oil reserves aimed at stabilizing the volatile market, disruptions persist. The U.S. Department of Energy also announced it would release 172 million barrels from strategic reserves.

3. Gold Stabilizes

Gold prices stabilized after falling during Asian trading hours amid no signs of easing in the U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict, which has driven funds into energy prices and fueled inflation fears.

As of 04:54 a.m. Eastern Time, spot gold rose 0.1% to $5,178.65 per ounce, while gold futures increased 0.1% to $5,184.75 per ounce.

Although gold continues to fluctuate within the $5,000–$5,200 range, pressure from rising oil prices has some analysts worried this could reignite upward price momentum. As a result, the Federal Reserve and other central banks might be forced to reconsider recent rate cut plans, strengthening the dollar.

A stronger dollar could reduce gold’s appeal, making it more expensive for overseas buyers and diminishing its traditional safe-haven status. The dollar index recently rose about 0.2%, nearing a two-month high.

4. Adobe to Announce Earnings

Adobe is scheduled to release its latest earnings after Thursday’s market close, with investors curious about how the Photoshop maker will navigate recent concerns over AI’s impact on the software sector.

While AI was initially seen as a boon for the industry, the emergence of new AI tools over the past few months has sparked fears of potential disruption, possibly affecting a range of SaaS companies. Investors are especially concerned about new forms of this technology, such as plugins for Anthropic’s Claude agent that can browse legal documents, which could significantly impact demand across areas from data analysis to marketing.

The S&P 500 Information Technology index, which includes Adobe, has fallen over 3% this year, a sharp reversal from 2025 when the index’s total return reached 24%.

Adobe’s stock reflects this trend, with its product suite—including InDesign and Acrobat—down more than 18% so far this year.

Even before the software industry faced a survival crisis this year, Adobe had been actively pursuing its own AI strategy to counter potential disruptions, integrating emerging technologies into its services through tools like Firefly and Adobe Express. These enhancements aim to attract users by enabling quick creation of images and videos within Adobe’s Creative Cloud.

Efforts to monetize AI development seem to position the company favorably, with executives forecasting full-year revenue and profit exceeding Wall Street expectations. The company expects annual revenue between $25.9 billion and $26.1 billion, with earnings per share estimated between $23.30 and $23.50.

5. Shell Earnings Report

Oil giant Shell reported adjusted earnings of $18.5 billion for 2025, down from $23.7 billion in 2024.

Operating cash flow reached $42.9 billion, compared to $54.7 billion the previous year. Free cash flow was $26.1 billion, below $39.5 billion in 2024.

Shell maintained substantial shareholder distributions this year, with total payouts around $22.4 billion, including $8.5 billion in dividends and $13.9 billion in share buybacks, accounting for about 52% of operating cash flow, at the high end of the company’s 40%-50% target range.

One day before this earnings release, Reuters reported that Shell, the world’s largest liquefied natural gas (LNG) trader, halted production at its 77 million tons per year LNG facility in Qatar and declared force majeure on shipments after an attack on its Qatar Energy purchases and global sales.

Analysts estimate Shell receives about 6.8 million tons of LNG annually from Qatar, while TotalEnergies is estimated to receive about 5.2 million tons, according to the report.

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