Pig Price "10 Yuan Threshold Battle": In early February, leading listed pig enterprises reduced volume year-on-year, while some mid-tier companies expanded production against the trend

Cailian Press, March 11 — (Reporter Zhang Chenjing) Under the background of pig prices breaking below ten yuan and policy guidance to reduce capacity, the listed pig companies’ February slaughter data has been gradually disclosed. The current industry strategy of “selling more to compensate for lower prices” is becoming unsustainable, and capacity restructuring is showing signs of differentiation. Several industry insiders told Cailian Press that policy market regulation will continue through 2026, and pig price fluctuations will narrow. Overall, breeding profitability in 2026 may not surpass that of 2025.

Pig Company Revenue Declines in February

Among the disclosed listed pig companies, except for Muyuan Foods, which saw a slight year-on-year decrease in slaughter volume in February, most companies experienced year-on-year sales growth. Month-on-month, due to the impact of the Spring Festival holiday, many companies saw a decline in sales.

It is worth noting that since May last year, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs has repeatedly organized special meetings with several listed pig companies, explicitly calling for a halt to expanding breeding sows and controlling slaughter weights, requiring companies to cooperate with industry capacity reduction. In an exclusive report by Cailian Press, relevant departments held a meeting on March 3 with some pig companies, emphasizing comprehensive regulation of pig capacity and focusing on accurate early warning information.

Currently, capacity regulation has been ongoing for nine months. In terms of year-on-year growth, leading companies such as Zhenbang Technology (002157.SZ), Kemin Foods (002661.SZ), Dongrui Co., Ltd. (001201.SZ), and Dabeinong (002385.SZ) showed notable increases in sales, with growth rates of 68.01%, 49.34%, 41%, and 39.38%, respectively. Among top pig companies, Muyuan Foods (002714.SZ) slaughtered 4.603 million pigs in February, a slight decrease of 0.77% year-on-year; Wen’s Co., Ltd. (300498.SZ) sold 2.697 million pigs, up 3.80%; and New Hope (000876.SZ) sold 980,000 commercial pigs, up 19.97%.

Industry experts told Cailian Press that this year’s policy focus is shifting from the previous “stability of production” mindset, which prioritized quantity, to a new approach that balances quantity and quality, supply and efficiency, emphasizing “improving quality” and “regulation.” In 2025, pig farming is expected to remain mildly profitable, but internal industry costs will vary significantly. Market regulation will continue into 2026, with a gentle market recovery.

Cailian Press learned from Muyuan Foods that the company proactively adjusted its capacity structure in 2025, reducing the breeding sow inventory from 3.62 million in January 2025 to 3.13 million in January this year, a total reduction of nearly 500,000. The company has also controlled pig slaughter weights around 120 kg and has completely stopped selling fattening pigs to secondary fattening clients since May 2025, ensuring all fat pigs flow directly to slaughterhouses.

Pig Prices Under Pressure Across the Board

After the Spring Festival, pig prices continued to decline, and the willingness of breeders to cull breeding sows increased significantly. According to data from Zhuochuang, monitoring 196 sample breeding farms, the number of breeding sows and the total pig inventory showed divergence in February. The number of breeding sows increased by 0.38% month-on-month in January but decreased by 0.35% in February. Meanwhile, total pig inventory decreased by 0.57% in January but increased by 0.80% in February.

For listed pig companies, the average selling price in February was below 12 yuan per kilogram, with revenue generally declining year-on-year. Some companies experienced a situation where sales volume increased but revenue decreased. As of March 11, the national pig price hit a nearly four-year low, approaching 10 yuan per kilogram, with some regions falling below 10 yuan.

Currently, pig prices are far below industry breeding costs and even below most companies’ cash costs. According to periodic disclosures from listed pig companies, most breeding costs are around 12-13.5 yuan per kilogram.

Zhuochuang Information pig analyst Rong Zhifa told Cailian Press that the real decline in breeding sow inventory occurred in September 2025, with slaughter volume reductions mainly expected in the second half of 2026. In the first half of 2026, pig supply will still be relatively ample, and prices are likely to fluctuate downward. However, slaughter volume is expected to gradually decrease in the second half of the year, with most industry participants expecting pig prices to stabilize and rebound in the second half of 2026. Nonetheless, improvements in sow production efficiency may significantly limit the price increase in the second half of 2026. The consensus among industry insiders is that pig prices may stop falling and rebound in the second quarter of 2026, but the overall rebound will be limited, and profitability for the year may not surpass that of 2025.

(Cailian Press, Zhang Chenjing)