Goldman Sachs Predicts Brent Crude to Reach $93 in 60-Day Strait of Hormuz Disruption Scenario

LootboxPhobia · 2026-03-12T13:21:34+00:00

Goldman Sachs raised its oil price forecast due to potential extended disruptions in Hormuz Strait flow that could last up to 21 days, expected to create a supply shock of 16.2 million barrels per day. Brent crude is expected to average $71 per barrel in 2026, while WTI is projected at $67 per barrel. The market faces long-term uncertainty, with oil price risks tilted toward the upside.

LootboxPhobia

2026-03-12 13:21:34

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Investing.com - Goldman Sachs has upgraded its oil price forecast, assuming a longer and more severe disruption of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, and warns that if the disruption persists, the risk remains “tilted to the upside.”

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Goldman Sachs analyst Daan Struyven told investors that the firm is currently modeling a 21-day low-flow scenario in the Strait of Hormuz, with flow at only 10% of normal levels, compared to a previous forecast of 10 days followed by a gradual recovery over 30 days.

The firm states that its tracking data indicates “Persian Gulf exports are expected to be impacted by 16.2 million barrels per day,” describing it as “the largest oil supply shock on record.”

Based on its updated framework, Goldman Sachs expects Brent crude to average $71 in Q4 2026, up from $66 previously, while WTI is forecasted at $67.

The firm also incorporates “larger-scale policy responses and ongoing positioning related to geopolitical risks and investor shifts toward hard assets.”

Struyven said that, in the near term, the uncertainty about the duration of the disruption means “oil prices could move higher” until the market is confident that the disruption will not be long-lasting.

He added that the market may need “significant risk premiums to generate preemptive demand destruction.”

The firm estimates that coordinated global policy actions, including releasing 254 million barrels from strategic petroleum reserves and Russia’s oil mobilization, could reduce the inventory impact by nearly 50%.

Nonetheless, risks remain two-sided. A quicker end to U.S. military actions would eliminate the premium, but a prolonged disruption could be much more severe.

In a 60-day scenario, Goldman Sachs models Brent crude at $93 and WTI at $89. As of Thursday, Brent was trading above $96, while WTI was around $91.50.

This article was translated with the assistance of artificial intelligence. For more information, see our Terms of Use.

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