【US Stock Pre-Market】Iran's Supreme Leader Threatens to Close Strait of Hormuz as Pressure Mounts, Brent Crude Rebounds Above $100—Dow Futures Down 450 Points (Continuously Updated)

2026-03-12 13:38:56

Oil tankers in the Persian Gulf were attacked by Iranian unmanned boats, causing oil prices to surge again. Iran’s Supreme Leader Khamenei issued a statement for the first time, saying that closing the Strait of Hormuz is a way to pressure the enemy, emphasizing that the country will not give up revenge, and warning all U.S. military bases in the Middle East to close immediately, or they will be attacked. This drove Brent crude oil futures up over 10%, briefly breaking $100 per barrel.

Chubb Insurance (U.S.: CB) announced it will be the primary underwriter for a $20 billion plan led by the U.S. government to insure ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz. It will cooperate with the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation (DFC) to help oil tankers and other commercial vessels resume navigation amid the risks of the Iran conflict.

U.S. stock futures declined before the open on Thursday, with Dow futures down 450 points at 46,998, S&P 500 futures down 51 points at 6,727, and Nasdaq futures down 70 points or 0.3% at 24,913. Last week, initial unemployment claims in the U.S. were 213,000, below the market expectation of 215,000. The continuing claims as of the week ending February 28 were 1.85 million, a decrease of 21,000 from the previous week, in line with expectations. U.S. January new home starts rose 7.2% month-over-month to 1.487 million, beating the market forecast of 1.34 million.

The US dollar index recovered above 99, currently at 99.36; concerns about inflation slowing the Fed’s rate hikes have pushed the U.S. long-term bond yield above 4.2%, now at 4.22%. International gold is at $5,190 per ounce, up 0.2%.

Goldman Sachs has raised its forecast for Brent crude oil and NYMEX WTI for Q4 2026 from $66 and $62 to $71 and $67 per barrel, citing the current situation in Iran and the possibility that disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz could last longer than previously estimated.

The bank also warned that if the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz continues until the end of March, international oil prices could exceed the 2008 high, potentially surpassing $147 per barrel. Goldman Sachs’s baseline assumption is that oil supplies passing through the strait will be reduced to 10% of normal for about 21 days, longer than the previous estimate of 10 days, after which transportation may gradually recover.

Hong Kong stocks and ADR markets are continuously updated. See the next page for details.

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Market Trends:

【18:20】Dow futures down 217 points, Nasdaq futures down 0.3%, Brent crude oil back above $100

【13:33】Dow futures down 496 points at 46,952; S&P futures down 51 points at 6,727; Nasdaq futures down 70 points or 0.9% at 24,913.

【13:26】【ORCL Analysis】Oracle’s earnings surge 9% after results; JPMorgan upgrades rating, optimistic about long-term value of data management business

【12:59】【US Stock Focus】Short positions hit a 3-year high; Goldman Sachs: positive news could trigger “extreme” rally in US stocks

【11:51】【Oil Price Analysis】IEA releases strategic oil reserves; prices rise nearly 9%; analysis: “a drop in the bucket,” short-term volatility expected

【11:20】【Iran Crisis】Morgan Stanley maintains forecast of two rate cuts by the Fed this year, but oil shocks may delay rate cuts until September

【11:04】【Yen Trend】Yen approaches lowest of the year, at 4.92 against HKD; outlook: official intervention thresholds have increased

【10:58】【Iran Crisis】Oxford Economics: if oil stays at $140 for two months, global recession and 5.8% inflation could occur

【10:07】【Apple】Rumors: Foldable iPhone may feature iPad-like interface; wide-screen aspect ratio as a key selling point?

【09:54】【US Tariffs】US initiates new trade investigations on 16 partners including China, Japan, South Korea, and Europe, paving the way for new tariffs

【08:32】【Gold Price Trend】Gold declines for the second day, affected by rising oil prices and bleak rate hike outlook

【07:28】【Iran Crisis】Two oil tankers in the Persian Gulf catch fire and explode; Brent surges past $100; Iranian officials hint at blocking the Red Sea entrance (ongoing updates)

【07:15】【Iran Crisis】IEA members agree to release 400 million barrels of emergency oil reserves; US releases 170 million barrels, Japan 80 million, South Korea 22.46 million, UK 13.5 million

$1 or less for March 11 US stock market overview====

Wednesday: US military warns Iranian civilians to stay away from Hormuz port, pre-attack alert, oil up 4%, Dow drops 289 points, Nasdaq steady

The U.S. Central Command issued a warning to Iranian civilians, stating that Iran is using civilian ports along the Strait of Hormuz for military actions, threatening international shipping, and that such actions are now legitimate military targets under international law. Oil prices rose again, with the Dow dropping up to 520 points.

Market close summary:

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+10

The Dow closed at 47,417, down 289 points; the S&P 500 retreated 0.08% to 6,775; the Nasdaq edged up 0.08% to 22,716. Oracle’s earnings and outlook exceeded expectations, soaring 9.2%; Nvidia rose 0.7%.

Oil prices continued to rise, with NYMEX crude at $87.25, up 4.55%; Brent crude at $91.98, up 4.76%.

Iranian media reported that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps issued a statement claiming that the Mayuree Naree was attacked after ignoring warnings from IRGC Navy. According to shipping website marinetraffic, Mayuree Naree is in the Strait of Hormuz.

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The French news agency AFP quoted a military spokesperson saying: “The policy of proportional retaliation has ended; from now on, our policy will be continuous strikes. No oil shipment passing through the Strait of Hormuz will be allowed to benefit the U.S., Zionist regime, or their partners.”

However, Japan and other countries will release strategic oil reserves. The International Energy Agency (IEA) issued a statement that 32 member countries have agreed to release 400 million barrels from emergency reserves on March 11, the largest such release ever, to address the market chaos caused by the Middle East war.

Chubb Insurance will lead a U.S. government-led plan to insure ships crossing the Strait of Hormuz. As part of a $20 billion initiative, Chubb will cooperate with the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation (IDFC) to help oil tankers and other commercial vessels resume navigation amid Iran war risks.

U.S. February inflation data met expectations, with overall CPI rising 2.4% year-over-year, and monthly increase at 0.3%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. Core CPI rose 2.5% annually, with a monthly increase of 0.2%, down 0.1 percentage points. However, this does not yet reflect the impact of soaring international oil prices due to the Middle East conflict.

Reports suggest the Trump administration will launch trade investigations to pave the way for new tariffs; The New York Times cited sources saying that after the Supreme Court rejected Trump’s tariff agenda, the Biden administration will announce a series of trade investigations on Wednesday under Section 301 of the Trade Act, covering digital service taxes and currency manipulation, marking an important step in rebuilding the “tariff wall.”

Hong Kong stocks and ADR markets are continuously updated. See the next page for details.

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Market Trends:

【21:30】Dow down 22 points at 47,683; Nasdaq up 0.3%; oil prices retreat 8%

【19:04】Dow futures up 101 points; Nasdaq futures up 0.3%; oil prices retreat 7%; Oracle (ORCL) earnings announced after market close

【12:43】Dow futures down 183 points at 47,586; S&P futures down 24 points at 6,777; Nasdaq futures down 84 points or 0.3% at 24,906

【12:09】【Iran Crisis】Oil prices surge past $100, NYMEX crude up 30%; major Middle Eastern oil producers cut output

【11:00】【Iran Crisis】Oil prices spike, with Brent near $120, NYMEX up 30%; more Middle Eastern producers cut output

【10:20】【Iran Crisis】Oil price surge drags down Asia-Pacific stocks; “Black Monday” in Japan and Korea, both down over 7%; South Korea considers oil price cap measures

【09:56】【Iran Crisis】JPMorgan estimates Middle East oil capacity will decrease by 4 million barrels daily by next weekend

【09:50】【Iran Crisis】Schroders’ Tedder: Oil may hit $100; “I won’t reduce energy stocks in next 2-3 years”

【08:17】【Iran Crisis】Gold drops over 2%, testing $5,000; oil surge fuels inflation fears

【07:30】【Iran Crisis】Black Monday begins; oil up 20%, approaching $111; Trump: low cost, Dow futures plunge 1,112 points (ongoing updates)

【07:30】【Global Outlook】Focus on Middle East conflict and US inflation data; US markets open an hour earlier at 9:30 p.m. HK time

【07:30】Concerns over oil supply disruptions and worse-than-expected US jobs data caused last Friday’s sharp decline; Dow fell 945 points to 47,009; VIX volatility index soared 21.6% to 28.88; Dow closed down 453 points, S&P down 1.33%, Nasdaq down 1.59%.

Market close summary:

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