【US Stock Market Update】Iran's Supreme Leader Speaks for First Time: Vows Revenge, Threatens to Block Strait of Hormuz, Attack US Military Bases; Brent Crude Surges Above $100; Dow Jones Falls (Continuously Updated)

Oil tankers in the Persian Gulf were attacked by Iranian unmanned boats, causing oil prices to surge again. Iran’s Supreme Leader, Mujeh Tabataba (Hussein Khamenei’s son), issued a statement for the first time, claiming revenge, opening new fronts, closing the Strait of Hormuz, pressuring enemies, and warning all U.S. military bases in the Middle East to close immediately; otherwise, they will be attacked. This drove Brent crude oil futures up over 10%, briefly breaking $100 per barrel.

Chubb Insurance (CB) announced it will be the primary underwriter for a $20 billion U.S. government-led plan to insure ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz. It will cooperate with the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation (DFC) to help oil tankers and other commercial vessels resume navigation amid the risks of the Iran conflict.

U.S. stocks opened lower on Thursday, with the Dow down 65 points to 46,751, the S&P 500 down 1.3% to 6,690, and the Nasdaq down 1.6% to 22,348.

Last week, initial unemployment claims in the U.S. were 213,000, below the market expectation of 215,000. For the week ending February 28, the continued claims were 1.85 million, a decrease of 21,000 from the previous week, in line with expectations. January new home starts rose 7.2% month-on-month to 1.487 million units, surpassing the forecast of 1.34 million.

The US dollar index recovered above 99, currently at 99.56; concerns about inflation slowing the Fed’s rate hikes pushed U.S. long-term bond yields above 4.2%, now at 4.23%. International gold is at $5,140 per ounce, down 0.3%.

Goldman Sachs revised upward its forecast for Brent crude oil and NYMEX WTI for Q4 2026 from $66 and $62 to $71 and $67 per barrel, citing the current Iran war situation and the possibility that disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz could last longer than previously estimated.

The bank also warned that if the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz persists until the end of March, international oil prices could exceed the 2008 high, potentially surpassing $147 per barrel. They continue to assume that oil supply through the strait will be reduced to 10% of normal levels for about 21 days, longer than the previous estimate of 10 days, after which transportation may gradually recover.

Hong Kong stocks and ADR markets are continuously updated. See: Next Page

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Market Trends:

【22:30】Iran’s Supreme Leader speaks for the first time: vows revenge, blockades the Strait of Hormuz, attacks US military bases. Brent crude surpasses $100, Dow drops.

【21:30】Supreme Leader: Must close the Strait of Hormuz, US bases in the Middle East will be attacked. Brent crude exceeds $100, Dow falls 565 points.

【18:20】Dow futures down 217 points, Nasdaq futures down 0.3%, Brent crude over $100.

【13:33】Dow futures down 496 points, at 46,952; S&P futures down 59 points, at 6,720; Nasdaq futures down 222 points or 0.9%, at 24,760.

【13:26】【ORCL Analysis】Oracle’s earnings surge 9% after earnings report; JPMorgan upgrades rating, optimistic about long-term value of data management business.

【12:59】【US Stock Focus】Short positions hit over 3-year high; Goldman Sachs: positive news could trigger “extreme” rally in US stocks.

【11:51】【Oil Price Analysis】IEA releases oil reserves; prices rise nearly 9%, analysis: “a drop in the bucket,” short-term volatility expected.

【11:20】【Iran Crisis】Morgan Stanley maintains forecast of two rate cuts by the Fed this year, but oil shocks may delay rate cuts until September.

【11:04】【Yen Trend】Yen approaches lowest of the year, at 4.92 HKD; outlook: official intervention thresholds have increased.

【10:58】【Iran Crisis】Oxford Economics: if oil stays at $140 for two months, global recession and 5.8% inflation could occur.

【10:07】【Apple】Rumors: foldable iPhone may feature iPad-like interface after unfolding; wide-screen ratio as a key selling point?

【09:54】【US Tariffs】US initiates new trade investigations on 16 partners including China, Japan, South Korea, and Europe, paving the way for new tariffs.

【08:32】【Gold Trend】Gold declines for the second day, affected by rising oil prices and bleak rate hike outlook.

【07:28】【Iran Crisis】Two oil tankers in the Persian Gulf catch fire and explode; Brent crude surges past $100 again. Iran hints at blocking the Red Sea entrance; ongoing updates.

【07:15】【Iran Crisis】IEA members agree to release 400 million barrels of emergency oil reserves; US releases 170 million barrels, Japan 80 million, South Korea 22.46 million, UK 13.5 million.

Below $1: US Market Conditions on March 11

Wednesday: US military warns Iran civilians to stay away from the Strait of Hormuz, pre-attack alert; oil rises 4%, Dow drops 289 points, Nasdaq steady.

The U.S. Central Command warns civilians that Iran is using civilian ports along the Strait of Hormuz for military actions, threatening international shipping, and legally becoming military targets under international law. Oil prices climb again, with the Dow dropping up to 520 points.

Market Close:

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Dow closes at 47,417, down 289; S&P 500 retraces 0.08% to 6,775; Nasdaq dips 0.08% to 22,716. Oracle’s earnings and outlook beat expectations, stock surges 9.2%; Nvidia up 0.7%.

Oil prices continue rising, NYMEX at $87.25 (+4.55%), Brent at $91.98 (+4.76%).

Iranian media reports that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps announced that the Mayuree Naree was attacked after ignoring warnings. According to MarineTraffic, the vessel is in the Strait of Hormuz.

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The statement from a military spokesperson quoted by Fars News Agency: “The policy of proportional retaliation has ended; from now on, our policy will be continuous strikes. No oil passage through the Strait of Hormuz will be allowed to benefit the U.S., Zionist regime, and their partners.”

However, Japan and other countries will release oil reserves. IEA states that 32 member countries have agreed to release 400 million barrels from emergency reserves, the largest in history, to address market chaos caused by Middle East war.

Chubb Insurance will lead a U.S. government-backed plan to insure ships crossing the Strait of Hormuz. As part of a $20 billion plan, Chubb will cooperate with the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation (DFC) to help oil tankers and commercial ships resume navigation amid Iran war risks.

U.S. February inflation data meet expectations: overall CPI up 2.4% annually, monthly increase at 0.3%, core CPI up 2.5% annually, monthly rise at 0.2%. Notably, this does not yet reflect the impact of soaring international oil prices due to the Middle East conflict.

Reports suggest the Trump administration will launch trade investigations to pave the way for new tariffs; The New York Times reports that after the Supreme Court rejected Trump’s tariff agenda, the Biden administration will announce a series of trade investigations on Wednesday under Section 301 of the Trade Act, covering digital service taxes and currency manipulation, marking a step toward rebuilding a “tariff wall.”

Hong Kong stocks and ADR markets are continuously updated. See: Next Page

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Market Trends:

【21:30】Memory stocks rebound; Micron up 2%. Dow up 101 points, Nasdaq up 0.3%. Oil pulls back 8%.

【18:00】Dow futures up 101 points, Nasdaq futures up 0.3%. Oil pulls back 7%. Oracle reports earnings after market close.

【12:43】Dow futures down 183 points, at 47,586; S&P futures down 24 points, at 6,777; Nasdaq futures down 84 points or 0.3%, at 24,906.

【12:09】【Apple】Apple reduces dependence on China; iPhone production in India now accounts for 25%.

【11:00】AI + Defense | Anthropic sues US Department of Defense to remove blacklist designation.

【10:31】【Iran Crisis】Trump says war will end soon; gold rebounds sharply.

【08:28】【Iran Crisis】Several oil tankers attempt to pass through the strait; Iran issues warnings again. Trump: war will end soon but no timeline promised; ongoing updates.

【08:26】【AI + Nvidia】Nvidia reportedly plans to launch open-source AI platform “NemoClaw.”

【08:00】【Apple】Apple reportedly delays smart home display device launch to wait for new Siri.

Below $1: US Market Conditions on March 9

Monday: Trump says war is nearly over; oil plunges, Dow rises 239 points.

Trump in an interview said the war is almost over, very complete; Iran has no navy, no communications, no air force; their missiles are left in small numbers. Drones are destroyed everywhere, including manufacturing plants.

Market Close:

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Dow closes at 47,706, up 239; S&P 500 down 0.21% to 6,736; Nasdaq down 1.5% to 22,061. Trump claims Iran has nothing left militarily, threatens to take action in the Strait of Hormuz, warning Iran that any misstep will be their end, and they will never hear that name again. He also states the strait is open, with ships entering, and is considering taking control.

The U.S. Department of Defense posts on X: “We are just getting started” and “No mercy.”

Following the statements, oil prices sharply decline, and US stocks rebound. Brent crude drops 1.5% to $91.2, NYMEX crude drops 3.4% to $88.

The Dow initially fell 886 points to 46,615, the S&P 500 dropped 1.5% to 6,636, and Nasdaq fell 1.5% to 22,061.

By close, the Dow gained 239 points to 47,740, the S&P up 0.8% to 6,795, and Nasdaq up 1.4% to 22,695.

Brent crude surged nearly 30%, approaching $120 per barrel. G7 finance ministers held an emergency meeting to discuss coordinated release of strategic petroleum reserves via IEA to counter the spike.

French Finance Minister Roland Lescure said G7 has not yet decided on releasing emergency reserves after the US-Israel war.

In Brussels, Lescure told reporters, “Our consensus is to use all necessary means to stabilize the market, including possible release of reserves.” He added that governments are closely monitoring the situation, with no supply issues reported so far.

Japan’s Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki said, “The IEA calls on countries to coordinate release of oil reserves. Given current circumstances, G7 agrees to continue monitoring energy markets and take necessary measures, including releasing reserves.” The G7 will soon hold a meeting of energy ministers to discuss further steps.

As of 2022 data, IEA member countries control over 1.2 billion barrels of emergency oil reserves, mostly crude oil, under OECD control. IEA rules require all members to maintain emergency reserves equivalent to at least 90 days of net imports, sufficient to support at least three months of consumption.

Market stabilizes; the US dollar index falls 0.1% to 98.877; U.S. 10-year Treasury yields stabilize at 4.107%.

Gold’s decline narrows to 0.6%, at $5,138, silver rises 2.5% to $86.63.

U.S. military continues to demonstrate strength. According to BBC, B-52 and B-1 heavy bombers are stationed at RAF Fairford, with three B-52s landing in one day—the first appearance of B-52s in the UK since the conflict erupted.

B-52s are typical “forward-deployed” strategic bombers, indicating a large-scale air campaign or imminent escalation. As heavily armed “old cows,” once enemy air defenses are weakened, they can deliver massive conventional ground-attack munitions to destroy infrastructure, industrial targets, or large ground forces.

Additionally, U.S. stock markets enter daylight saving time, opening one hour earlier at 9:30 p.m. Hong Kong time.

Swiss bank UBS notes that the oil market has entered a panic state, with prices soaring into triple digits, mainly driven by market sentiment, as the conflict itself has not seen any substantial changes. So far, supply disruptions are mainly due to cautious ships avoiding the Strait of Hormuz, causing trade blockages rather than military blockades. However, it is expected that in the coming week and beyond, Middle Eastern oil supply could face up to 75% shutdown.

The bank says it will continue to monitor the situation closely. Currently, no significant damage to energy infrastructure has been reported, and Iran’s military power appears to be waning. Solutions focusing on ensuring shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remain feasible. Given the fog of war, they reaffirm a neutral stance on oil and natural gas, maintaining the expectation that energy prices will peak at current or slightly higher levels.