JPMorgan says go long energy stocks, short the market until Strait of Hormuz reopens

The situation in the Middle East shows no signs of ending soon, leaving investors nervous. Another three ships were struck in the Persian Gulf overnight, while shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has ground to a halt. President Donald Trump said earlier this month he is ready to use the U.S. Navy to escort ships through the Strait, but Energy Secretary Chris Wright told CNBC’s " Squawk Box " on Thursday that the U.S. isn’t ready to move forward with such an operation . This put U.S. stocks under pressure in early trading, while crude prices surged again . West Texas Intermediate futures were last up around 7% at $93.23 per barrel. Brent oil touched $100 per barrel overnight and was recently around $98. With so much uncertainty, JPMorgan’s trading desk compiled two scenarios for the war. The first scenario has hostilities ending in the near future via a “successful U.S. military assault OR (ii) a diplomatic, solution,” though they added that an assault was more likely at this point. The second scenario is for a long-term conflict. “If the U.S. cannot achieve a short-term victory, it seems likely that it will be forced to attempt a ground war to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. If so, this could transform into a multiyear war,” they said. For now, the trading desk advises investors stay long energy (crude, natural gas) and energy stocks. Investors can gain exposure to oil and natural gas via ETFs such as the United States Oil fund (USO) and the First Trust Natural Gas ETF (FCG) . The trading desk is also short the broader equity market. “If we get to Sunday when futures open without a resolution, we think risk assets will see a more aggressive sell-off,” they said.