【US Stock Market Update】Iran's Supreme Leader Speaks for First Time: Vows Revenge, Threatens to Block Strait of Hormuz, Attack US Military Bases; Brent Crude Surges Above $100; Dow Jones Falls (Continuously Updated)

Oil tankers in the Persian Gulf were attacked by Iranian unmanned boats, causing oil prices to surge again. Iran’s top leader, Mujeh Tabataba (son of Khamenei), issued a statement for the first time, claiming revenge, opening new fronts, closing the Strait of Hormuz, pressuring enemies, and warning all U.S. military bases in the Middle East to close immediately; otherwise, they will be attacked. This drove Brent crude futures up over 10%, briefly surpassing $100 per barrel.

Chubb Insurance (CB) announced it will be the primary underwriter for a $20 billion U.S. government-led plan to insure ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz. It will cooperate with the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation (DFC) to help oil tankers and other commercial vessels resume navigation amid the Iran war risks.

U.S. stocks opened lower on Thursday, with the Dow down 65 points at 46,751, the S&P 500 down 1.3% at 6,690, and the Nasdaq down 1.6% at 22,348.

Last week, initial unemployment claims in the U.S. were 213,000, below the expected 215,000. For the week ending February 28, continued claims were 1.85 million, a decrease of 21,000 from the previous week, in line with expectations. January new home starts rose 7.2% month-on-month to 1.487 million, beating the forecast of 1.34 million.

The US dollar index stabilized above 99, now at 99.56; concerns about inflation slowing the Fed’s rate cuts have pushed the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries above 4.2%, currently at 4.23%. International gold is at $5,140 per ounce, down 0.3%.

Goldman Sachs raised its forecast for Brent crude in Q4 2026 from $66 to $71 per barrel, and WTI from $62 to $67, citing the current Iran conflict and longer-than-expected disruption of oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz.

The bank also warned that if the blockage persists until the end of March, international oil prices could exceed the 2008 high, potentially surpassing $147 per barrel. Their baseline assumption is that oil supply passing through the Strait of Hormuz will drop to 10% of normal for about 21 days, longer than the previous estimate of 10 days, after which transportation may gradually recover.

Hong Kong stocks and ADR markets are continuously updated. See: Next Page

▼Click image to enlarge

Market Trends:

【22:30】Iran’s top leader speaks for the first time: vows revenge, blockades the Strait of Hormuz, attacks US military bases. Brent crude surpasses $100, Dow drops.

【21:30】Supreme Leader: Must close the Strait of Hormuz, US bases in the Middle East will be attacked. Brent crude exceeds $100, Dow falls 565 points.

【18:20】Dow futures down 217 points, Nasdaq futures down 0.3%, Brent crude over $100.

【13:33】Dow futures down 496 points, at 46,952; S&P futures down 59 points, at 6,720; Nasdaq futures down 222 points (0.9%), at 24,760.

【13:26】【ORCL Analysis】Oracle’s earnings surge 9% after earnings report; JPMorgan upgrades rating, optimistic about long-term value of data management business.

【12:59】【US Stock Focus】Short positions hit over 3-year high; Goldman Sachs: positive news could trigger “extreme” rally in US stocks.

【11:51】【Oil Price Analysis】IEA releases oil reserves; prices rise nearly 9%, analysis: “a drop in the bucket,” short-term volatility expected.

【11:20】【Iran Crisis】Morgan Stanley maintains forecast of two rate cuts this year, but oil shocks may delay easing until September.

【11:04】【Yen Trend】Yen approaches lowest of the year, at 4.92 HKD; outlook: official intervention thresholds have increased.

【10:58】【Iran Crisis】Oxford Economics: sustained $140 oil for two months could cause a global recession, inflation at 5.8%.

【10:07】【Apple】Rumors: foldable iPhone may feature iPad-like interface after unfolding; wide-screen ratio as a key selling point?

【09:54】【US Tariffs】US initiates new trade investigations on 16 partners including China, Japan, Korea, and Europe, paving the way for new tariffs.

【08:32】【Gold Trend】Gold declines for the second day, affected by rising oil prices and bleak rate cut prospects.

【07:28】【Iran Crisis】Two oil tankers in the Persian Gulf catch fire and explode; Brent crude surges past $100 again. Iran hints at blocking the Red Sea entrance (ongoing updates).

【07:15】【Iran Crisis】IEA members agree to release 400 million barrels of emergency oil reserves; US releases 170 million barrels, Japan 80 million, Korea 22.46 million, UK 13.5 million.

Below $1: US Market on March 11

Wednesday: US military warns Iran civilians to stay away from the Strait of Hormuz, preps for attack; oil prices up 4%; Dow drops 289 points; Nasdaq steady.

U.S. Central Command warns Iran civilians that Iran is using civilian ports along the Strait of Hormuz for military actions, threatening international shipping, and legally becoming military targets under international law. Oil prices climb again, Dow drops up to 520 points.

Market Close:

▼Click image to enlarge

Dow closes at 47,417, down 289; S&P 500 retraces 0.08% to 6,775; Nasdaq dips slightly 0.08% to 22,716. Oracle’s earnings and outlook beat expectations, stock jumps 9.2%; Nvidia up 0.7%.

Oil continues rising, with WTI at $87.25 (+4.55%), Brent at $91.98 (+4.76%).

Iranian media reports that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps states that the Mayuree Naree was attacked after ignoring warnings. According to MarineTraffic, the vessel is in the Strait of Hormuz.

▼Click image to enlarge

The spokesperson for the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said: “The policy of proportional retaliation is over; from now on, our policy will be continuous strikes. No oil passage through the Strait of Hormuz will be allowed to benefit the US, Zionist regime, and their partners.”

However, Japan and other countries will release oil reserves. IEA issued a statement: 32 member countries have agreed to release 400 million barrels from emergency reserves, the largest ever, to address market chaos caused by Middle East conflict.

Chubb Insurance will lead a U.S. government-backed plan to insure ships crossing the Strait of Hormuz. As part of a $20 billion initiative, Chubb will cooperate with the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation (DFC) to help oil tankers and commercial ships resume navigation amid Iran war risks.

U.S. February inflation data met expectations: overall CPI rose 2.4% annually, monthly increase 0.3%, up 0.1 percentage point from last month; core CPI rose 2.5% annually, but monthly increase slowed to 0.2%. Notably, this does not yet reflect the impact of soaring oil prices due to the Middle East conflict.

Reports suggest the Trump administration will launch trade investigations to pave the way for new tariffs; The New York Times cites sources that after the Supreme Court rejected Trump’s tariff agenda, the Biden administration will announce a series of trade investigations on Wednesday under Section 301 of the Trade Act, covering digital service taxes and currency manipulation, marking a key step in rebuilding the “tariff wall.”

Hong Kong stocks and ADR markets are continuously updated. See: Next Page

▼Click image to enlarge

Market Trends:

【21:30】Memory stocks rebound; Micron up 2%, Dow up 101 points, Nasdaq up 0.3%, oil down 8%.

【18:00】Dow futures up 101 points, Nasdaq futures up 0.3%, oil down 7%. Oracle reports earnings after market close.

【12:43】Dow futures down 183 points, at 47,586; S&P futures down 24 points, at 6,777; Nasdaq futures down 84 points (0.3%), at 24,906.

【12:09】【Apple】Apple reduces dependence on China; iPhone production in India now accounts for 25%.

【11:00】AI & Defense | Anthropic sues US Department of Defense to remove blacklist designation.

【10:31】【Iran Crisis】Trump says war will end soon; gold rebounds in response.

【08:28】【Iran Crisis】Several oil tankers attempt to pass through the Strait; Iran issues warnings again. Trump at press conference: war will end soon, but no timeline promised (ongoing updates).

【08:26】【AI & NVDA】Nvidia reportedly plans to launch open-source AI platform “NemoClaw.”

【08:00】【Apple】Apple reportedly delays smart home display device launch, waiting for new Siri.

Below $1: US Market on March 9

Monday: Trump says war nearly over; oil prices plunge, Dow rises 239 points.

Trump told foreign media that the war is almost over, very complete; Iran has no navy, no communications, no air force; their missiles are left only in scattered numbers. Drones are destroyed everywhere, including manufacturing plants.

Market Close:

▼Click image to enlarge

Dow closes at 47,706, up 239; S&P down 0.21% at 6,736; Nasdaq down 1.5% at 22,061; VIX spikes 21.6% to 28.88 amid fears of escalation.

The US military claims to have successfully escorted a oil tanker through the Strait of Hormuz, but Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps denies this, calling it a lie, and warns that any US or allied action will be within missile and drone range.

Market hopes for an end to US-Iran conflict; oil prices fall sharply: Brent drops 11.94% to $83.45, WTI down 3.4% to $88.

The Dow initially surged 479 points but closed down 34, at 47,706; S&P fell 0.21%; Nasdaq down 1.5%. Gold rebounded 1.9% to $5,206 per ounce.

U.S. Secretary of Defense, Pete Hegseth, said Tuesday would be the most intense day of military strikes against Iran, deploying the most fighters and bombers. Chairman of the Joint Chiefs, General Caine, said the US is targeting Iranian missile boats.

Hegseth described the strikes as precise and targeted, not a prolonged “nation-building” campaign.

UAE oil refinery halted operations after drone attacks. Seven countries’ energy ministers (Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, UK, US) held emergency talks on releasing strategic oil reserves. CNBC sources say the US considers releasing 300-400 million barrels appropriate.

Amazon is returning to bond markets, with reports of up to 11 tranches, from 2 to 50 years. The longest tranche, maturing in 2076, is preliminarily priced about 1.55% above US Treasuries.

The US dollar index fell 0.3%, to 98.93; 10-year Treasury yield steady at 4.159%. Gold rebounded 1.9%, at $5,138; silver up 2.5%, at $86.63.

U.S. military shows force: BBC reports B-52 and B-1 bombers at RAF Fairford, with three B-52s landing — the first time since the conflict erupted.

B-52s are typical “forward-deployed” heavy bombers, signaling imminent large-scale air campaigns or escalation. They can deliver massive conventional ground-attack munitions after enemy air defenses are weakened.

U.S. stock market enters daylight saving time, opening one hour earlier at 9:30 p.m. Hong Kong time.

Swiss bank UBS notes the oil market is in panic, with prices soaring into triple digits, mainly driven by sentiment, as the conflict itself has not seen major changes. Disruptions are mainly due to cautious ships avoiding the Strait, not military blockades. However, disruptions could reach 75% of Middle Eastern oil supply in the coming weeks.

The bank will continue monitoring the situation. No significant damage to energy infrastructure has been reported; Iran’s military power appears to be weakening. Shipping routes around the Strait of Hormuz remain a feasible solution. Given the fog of war, neutrality on oil and gas remains, with prices expected to peak at current or slightly higher levels.