#原油价格上涨

Crude Oil Price "Breaks 100" Behind It: Blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and Global Energy Competition

March 12, 2026, the international crude oil market once again staged a "roller coaster" rally. Brent crude oil futures prices briefly broke through the 100 dollar/barrel mark during intraday trading, hitting a new high in nearly four years. This round of violent price fluctuations not only shakes the nerves of the global economy but also reveals the profound impact of geopolitical risks on energy markets.

I. Price Anomalies: From Panic Rally to High-Level Volatility

Since entering March, international oil prices have experienced the most intense fluctuations in recent years. On March 9, Brent crude oil futures prices surged to nearly 120 dollars per barrel at one point, then plummeted more than 11% in just two trading days. However, the decline did not persist, and on March 12, oil prices staged a strong rebound, breaking above the 100 dollar mark again.

The core driving force behind this boom-bust cycle is not the traditional supply-demand fundamentals, but the dramatic shift in Middle East geopolitical situations and the rapid switching of market expectations. Traders are navigating through fog, where any slightest news about the progress of the war could trigger violent price reversals.

II. Core Driver: The "Bottleneck" of the Strait of Hormuz

The fundamental reason for this round of oil price increases lies in the shipping disruptions at the "strategic chokepoint" of global oil supply——the Strait of Hormuz.

1. Shipping Nearly Paralyzed

The Strait of Hormuz handles approximately 25% to 30% of global seaborne oil trade. Since the escalation of the US-Iran conflict, shipping through the strait has nearly ground to a halt. According to Kpler data, vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz plummeted by approximately 97% following the conflict. The UK Maritime Trade Operations Center has received at least 10 attack reports, with numerous tankers stranded for more than a week, forcing Middle Eastern oil-producing countries to implement preventive production cuts as storage facilities approach capacity limits.

2. Massive Supply Gap

Although the International Energy Agency (IEA) announced the release of 400 million barrels of strategic petroleum reserves, the market widely believes this falls short of filling the massive daily supply gap. Rebecca Babin, senior energy trader at Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce Private Wealth, points out that the current supply disruption scale in the Middle East is approximately 16 million barrels per day, while the pace of strategic reserve releases is far insufficient to close this gap.

III. Outlook for Future Markets: High-Level Volatility and Potential Risks

Regarding future trends, market analysis institutions generally believe that oil price swings are far from over, with the short term expected to enter a phase of high-level volatility.

1. Short-Term Volatility Dominates

As war-related news continues to fluctuate, the market gradually enters a state of "aesthetic fatigue." The Trump administration has repeatedly sent signals that the conflict may end quickly, and this "expectation cooling mechanism" has clearly suppressed the persistence of extremely bullish moves in the short term. Short-term oil prices are expected to fluctuate widely in the 90-100 dollar range.

2. Long-Term Risks Persist

If the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz continues for weeks or even months, oil prices could face greater upward pressure. Goldman Sachs warned that if the strait remains obstructed through the end of March, international oil prices could exceed the 2008 peak (approximately 147 dollars/barrel). Capital Economics also predicts that if the conflict continues and causes damage to Gulf energy infrastructure, Brent crude could rise to 150 dollars/barrel in the next 6 months.

IV. Global Impact: Inflation Pressure and Economic Divergence

The oil price surge will produce a diverging effect on the global economy. On one hand, Canada and Latin America may become beneficiaries leveraging their energy export advantages; on the other hand, Central Europe, Eastern Europe, and India and other regions with high energy dependency will suffer severe impacts. Central banks such as the Federal Reserve face pressure from inflation resurfacing, with increased uncertainty in monetary policy.

Conclusion

The "breaking 100" of crude oil prices is no accident; it is a direct reflection of geopolitical risks in the energy market. Until the navigation issue in the Strait of Hormuz is resolved, high-level oil price volatility will become the norm. For global consumers and enterprises, this means rising fuel costs and intensified inflation pressures. The future trajectory of oil prices ultimately still hinges on the evolution of the Middle East situation——whether it will be quickly resolved or evolve into prolonged conflict.