CITIC Securities | European EV Tracking February: Sales Growth Accelerates Under New Policies, Optimistic on European EV Upside Opportunities

Article | Xu Lin, Qu Wenmin

In February, the nine European countries sold 227,900 electric vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 29%, a month-on-month increase of 6%, with a penetration rate of 30.9%, up 6.3 percentage points year-on-year and 0.6 percentage points month-on-month. In 2026, Germany and Sweden will restart EV subsidies, and Spain will replace the “MOVES III” plan with a new “Auto+” program. These policy boosts continue to drive sales growth. Based on this, we maintain our forecast of 5.15 million EVs sold in Europe in 2026, a 29% increase year-on-year.

Main country sales performance analysis: France’s sales increased by 23%, with stable year-on-year growth driven by subsidies; Italy implemented a super car subsidy plan, boosting sales by 98% YoY; Norway’s new energy vehicle sales surged 241% MoM, mainly due to the removal of VAT exemption starting January, with negative impacts expected to diminish; Spain’s new energy vehicle sales rose 77% YoY, mainly due to the adoption of the new “Auto+” subsidy plan in 2026.

In February, the nine European countries sold 227,900 EVs, up 29% YoY and 6% MoM, with a penetration rate of 30.9%, up 6.3 percentage points YoY and 0.6 percentage points MoM. From January to February 2026, cumulative sales reached 442,700 units, a 27% YoY increase, with a penetration rate of 30.6%, up 6.7 percentage points YoY. Breakdown by country:

1. France: February sales of 39,000 units, up 23% YoY and 11% MoM, penetration rate 32.3%, down 0.5 percentage points MoM. Eco-friendly subsidy policies boosted sales in January, maintaining stable growth in February.

2. Germany: February sales of 70,600 units, up 28% YoY and 10% MoM, penetration rate 33.4%, down 1.1 percentage points MoM. Stable YoY growth under subsidy support, with ongoing policy stimulation.

3. UK: February sales of 32,300 units, up 13% YoY but down 33% MoM, penetration rate 35.8%, down 8.0 percentage points MoM.

4. Portugal: February sales of 7,300 units, up 21% YoY and 8% MoM, penetration rate 35.5%, down 4.6 percentage points MoM.

5. Spain: February sales of 23,000 units, up 77% YoY and 51% MoM, penetration rate 23.7%, up 2.9 percentage points MoM. The large YoY increase is mainly due to the new “Auto+” subsidy plan adopted in 2026, with continued growth in February.

6. Norway: February sales of 7,200 units, down 17% YoY but up 241% MoM, penetration rate 98.6%, up 3.9 percentage points MoM. January tax policy adjustments caused a sharp decline, but recovery began in February, with expectations that tax impacts will continue to lessen.

7. Sweden: February sales of 12,600 units, up 5% YoY and 22% MoM, penetration rate 65.0%, up 0.8 percentage points MoM.

8. Denmark: February sales of 9,900 units, up 23% YoY but down 8% MoM, penetration rate 82.6%, down 1.4 percentage points MoM.

9. Italy: February sales of 26,100 units, up 98% YoY and 19% MoM, penetration rate 16.4%, up 1.1 percentage points MoM. The significant YoY growth is mainly due to the “Super Car Subsidy Plan” launched in October 2025, with applications continuing until June 2026.

Policy updates:

1. France announced extension of the eco-bonus originally set to expire at the end of 2025 until December 31, 2026. Low/middle-income and other households can receive up to €5,700 (original cap €4,000)/€4,700/€3,500 in subsidies for car purchases.

2. Germany will launch a new EV subsidy policy in 2026 with a total budget of €3 billion, lasting until 2029, supporting approximately 800,000 EVs. Subsidies for private buyers include €3,000–€6,000 for pure electric vehicles and €1,500–€4,500 for plug-in hybrids/extended-range vehicles.

3. Sweden plans to restart EV purchase subsidies between 2026-2032, using a “monthly subsidy + one-time reward” model. Eligible households will receive a climate bonus of 1,300 SEK (~€120) monthly for up to 36 months. Low-income families will receive a one-time bonus of 18,000 SEK (~€1,650).

Tesla impact analysis:

1. In February, Tesla’s combined sales in the nine countries totaled 14,130 units, up 17.5% YoY and 167.6% MoM; market share 6.2%, down 0.6 percentage points YoY but up 3.7 points MoM. Outside Tesla, total sales in these countries reached 213,700 units, up 30.0% YoY and 2.0% MoM.

2. Tesla’s February sales showed regional divergence: Portugal, Spain, Germany, France, and Norway all saw recovery, with YoY increases of 112%, 74%, 59%, 53%, and 32%, respectively, mainly due to low base effects from 2024. The UK continued a YoY decline of 37%. Denmark, Sweden, and Italy saw YoY decreases of 18%, 10%, and 8%.

Investment recommendations: The restart of EV subsidies in Germany and Sweden, and the new “Auto+” plan in Spain, support our forecast of 5.15 million EVs sold in Europe in 2026, a 29% increase YoY. We remain optimistic about the domestic midstream lithium battery and materials supply chain.

1. Downstream EV production and sales may underperform expectations due to macroeconomic impacts; upstream raw material price volatility and high electricity costs could also affect profitability and valuations across the industry chain.

2. Raw material prices have risen faster than expected since 2021, with significant fluctuations, which may impact end-market demand and profitability of related companies.

3. Policy support may fall short of expectations if subsidies are reduced, potentially dampening demand.

Securities Research Report Title: “Europe February EV Tracking: Accelerated Sales Growth Under New Policies, Favoring Outperformance Opportunities”

Release Date: March 11, 2026

Published by: CITIC Securities Co., Ltd.

Analysts:

Xu Lin SAC No.: S1440522110001

SFC No.: BVU271

Qu Wenmin SAC No.: S1440524050004