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Oil remains the main source of pressure: higher prices are reinforcing inflation risks and constraining risk appetite. Against this backdrop, yields are rising, the U.S. dollar is strengthening, and the market continues to scale back expectations for Fed rate cuts.
Additional downside pressure is coming from concerns around private credit and new U.S. trade investigations.
At the same time, the latest scorecard still does not point to a full breakdown:
Total Raw Score: -0.35
Regime: Balanced the pressure is coming through asset repricing, but the signal remains weak
Bottom line: conditions for risk assets have become more challenging, but for now this looks more like a negative drift than a confirmed global risk-off regime.