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First, an overview of the market

As usual, start with the morning market thoughts. Last night, oil futures surged again, but I mentioned before the market opened that oil futures fluctuate back and forth. However, the market’s fear is gradually diminishing. Take the steel rod as an example: the first drop was over twenty points; the second drop was five points; this time, before opening, it dropped more than one point. So, although it’s negative news, the market is digesting it. From initial panic to now becoming normal.

Yesterday, two strong sectors appeared: first, the shift from electricity to energy substitution, mainly driven by wind power; second, chemical prices rising.

Before the market opened, oil futures moved abnormally, benefiting chemical price increases. But regarding electricity and energy, all started to hype energy sectors, while computational power sectors showed increasing weakness.

Today’s pre-market plan is to focus only on these two areas. The tip from Jinniu indicates a low-buy opportunity. The bidding shows Baichuan opening high, along with two coal stocks, all pointing to Jinniu. But it’s worth noting that the funds operating chemical stocks are really dirty—they deliberately smashed Baichuan to drag down Jinniu.

In terms of sentiment, the first thing to observe is Ningbo Construction. Yesterday, it hit the highest turnover and broke the limit. Recently, stocks hitting four limit-ups tend to fluctuate or even rebound. But Ningbo opened slightly lower and quickly couldn’t hold, dropping sharply. This naturally indicates strength in computational power. Meili Yun also quickly hit the limit down.

At the same time, energy sectors, including electricity and energy, are holding up well and even continuing to rise. But computational power sectors are very weak today. This is related to Ningbo’s weakness, and of course, the extreme drop of Meili Yun is a bit over the top.

In the four-in-five sector, Zhongnan Culture, yesterday’s wind power fermentation led it to hit the top limit. Today, it added orders, which is expected. But under wind power’s fermentation, three consecutive one-word limit-ups are standard. Zhongnan added orders, and all the smaller stocks are timid. This shows that the bidding divergence in electricity and energy sectors is significant. Even the strongest wind power didn’t meet expectations, so other sectors are even less likely. The bidding suggested reducing positions in Yunnan Energy to prevent extreme market moves.

In the three-in-four sector, Lvhua yesterday was more proactive than Huadian. It hit the top limit amid wind power fermentation, but it didn’t open as expected. Huadian Energy’s opening was also somewhat a mistake—its position in coal was strong, but it didn’t hit the limit immediately; it dropped first, then recovered after the market stabilized. This indicates large divergence in electricity and energy sectors and also shows that even the top stocks can’t reach new heights, revealing internal disagreements among funds.

In the two-in-three sector, it only advanced to Jinniu, the only opponent of wind power among the two limit-up stocks, with chemical stocks at the top. Many stocks helped Jinniu at the open; Baichuan, if it opens high and rises, makes Jinniu stronger. But after Jinniu hits the limit-up, Baichuan starts to sell aggressively. It feels like chemical funds are very sneaky—they either backstab or get backstabbed, never supporting properly. I also mentioned that Jinniu’s strength depends on whether it can break away from Baichuan. If it can, it’s strong; if not, it’s weak.

In the one-in-two sector, Lubao and Zhengzhou Coal Electric both opened with a limit-up but were quickly smashed down after the open. These are both supporting Jinniu. Fasheng opened at the limit, previously controlled by three main players, still feeling the same. Some brothers say Xin Duoduo is playing now; if so, believe it early. Brothers who are still holding back in Guosheng should remember that.

Looking at today’s ideas: first, oil futures surged, check chemical bidding. If chemical stocks are very strong, they will definitely impact the power grid. But today, chemical strength isn’t obvious, so if chemical doesn’t surge, the bidding in electricity and energy sectors will be even less expected.

Construction stocks yesterday had huge volume and fell sharply today, but still managed to hit new highs, which helps stabilize the sector sentiment. But Ningbo Construction’s surge was intense—opened slightly lower but then kept falling. This definitely indicates weakness in computational power.

In the electricity and energy sectors, continuous weakness in computational power suggests that the power sector might also collapse soon. The sector has been hot for a long time; everyone should be cautious.

In the three-in-four sector, Huadian’s card in green energy was unexpected. I didn’t participate in its top limit, and I mentioned in the comments that the significance of such positioning is limited—these two attributes are similar, with Huadian adding coal. If coal surges, it might matter; otherwise, such positioning is just for positioning, risking early break and more opportunities for rebound.

In the two-in-three sector, wind power stocks are the only opponents to Jinniu. So I only look at the only rival, Jinniu, and consider other stocks as supporting roles. Better to watch for positioning actions.

Today’s interesting point: in the one-in-two sector, there’s a strong presence of “A San” (third-tier stocks). Kuntai bid with a big order at the top limit, which is inexplicable. Learning from Wang Li, the opening was a limit-down kill. It’s possible “A San” is still controlling the market, just at the wrong node. The sell-off indicates that the second and third limit-up stocks don’t recognize today’s market.

Looking at the first limit-up stocks, many seem to have layout plans, but after the market opened, fewer stocks continued to build positions. This might be because the early layout was completed or because the market’s sharp drop interrupted the fermentation.

Review of today’s operations:
Yuneng Holdings: The computational bidding didn’t meet expectations; I unfollowed half, keeping the other five-day support.
Jilin Carbon Valley: Jilin Chemical Fiber didn’t continue to rise as expected; after opening with a sharp drop, it couldn’t recover above the average line, so I unfollowed.
Xinjin Road: Bet on oversold rebound; it opened low and broke below the 30-day moving average, so I unfollowed.
Jinniu Chemical: Baichuan opened high and hit the limit, with two coal stocks at the limit, focus on the surge.
Reis Kangda: Optical communication stock Zhaochi moved; watch for the breakout.

Thanks again to all brothers who supported me yesterday: @asdfghzxcvbn, @WolfKingTravelThousandMiles, @dandy3574, @IAmThatHusky, @LimitlessCauliflower, @XiaoYueGe, @NotDuiCaiDeA-Miao, @CookPorridge, @SocialAnimal.

Thanks to the top supporter @IAmThatHusky, second place @NotDuiCaiDeA-Miao, third place @808HuangFeiHong.

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