【Huaxi Nonferrous】Anglo American's Q4 2025 copper production decreased 14% year-over-year to 170,000 tons, with 2026 copper production guidance revised from 760,000-820,000 tons to 700,000-760,000 tons

West China Nonferrous Metals

(1) Production and Operations

1. Copper

In Q4 2025, copper production was 170,000 tons, down 14% year-over-year and down 8% quarter-over-quarter. This mainly reflects reduced output from the Quellaveco mine due to expected lower ore grades.

In 2025, copper production totaled 695,000 tons, a 10% decrease year-over-year.

2. Iron Ore

In Q4 2025, iron ore production was 15.1 million tons, up 6% year-over-year and 6% quarter-over-quarter. This was mainly due to increased output at the Kumba mine.

In 2025, iron ore production was 60.8 million tons, flat year-over-year.

3. Manganese Ore

In Q4 2025, manganese ore production was 909,000 tons, up 22% year-over-year and down 7% quarter-over-quarter.

In 2025, manganese ore production was 2.975 million tons, up 30% year-over-year.

4. Diamonds

In Q4 2025, rough diamond production was 3.8 million carats, down 35% year-over-year and 51% quarter-over-quarter. This was mainly due to maintenance shutdowns at the Jwaneng and Orapa mines.

In 2025, rough diamond production was 21.7 million carats, down 12% year-over-year.

5. Coking Coal

In Q4 2025, coking coal production was 2.1 million tons, down 15% year-over-year but up 11% quarter-over-quarter. This was mainly due to the sale of a minority stake in the Jellinbah project in January 2025, and seasonal factors such as wet weather and mining schedules reducing Dawson open-pit output. This was partly offset by increased underground production at Aquila, which continued strong continuous mining operations.

In 2025, coking coal production was 8.2 million tons, a 43% decrease year-over-year.

6. Nickel

In Q4 2025, nickel production was 10,300 tons, up 3% year-over-year and 2% quarter-over-quarter. This reflects improved ore grades and recovery rates.

In 2025, nickel production was 39,700 tons, up 1% year-over-year.

(2) 2025 Production Guidance

1. Copper

In the Q3 2025 production report, management indicated an update to the 2026 copper guidance in Q1 2026, expecting Collahuasi’s output to remain similar to 2025—processing low-grade and difficult-to-process stockpiles until the end of 2026.

Accordingly, the 2026 total copper guidance was revised to 700,000–760,000 tons (previously 760,000–820,000 tons).

Chile’s 2026 guidance is 390,000–420,000 tons (previously 440,000–470,000 tons), reflecting expected lower output from Collahuasi, partly offset by the restart of Plant 2 at Los Bronces. Increased mining flexibility, strict cost control, and a strong copper price environment will enable Plant 2 to remain profitable until the dismantling of the Perez Caldera tailings dam in 2027. A second concentrator is expected to increase production by about 25,000 tons in 2026. Collahuasi’s output will benefit from gradually increasing high-grade fresh ore mining in 2026, with focus on the second half of the year.

Peru’s 2026 guidance is 310,000–340,000 tons (previously 320,000–350,000 tons), reflecting recent actual performance and expected slight declines in ore grades and recovery rates. Production is expected to be concentrated in the second half of 2026.

The 2027 total copper guidance was revised to 750,000–810,000 tons (previously 760,000–820,000 tons).

Chile’s 2027 guidance remains unchanged at 450,000–480,000 tons, supported by new ore supply at Collahuasi and the full-scale operation of a larger, more modern concentrator at Los Bronces, along with the full exploitation of the Donoso No. 2 orebody, which will improve ore grades and output.

Peru’s 2027 guidance is 300,000–330,000 tons (previously 310,000–340,000 tons), due to planned maintenance at Quellaveco, including the concentrator and conveyor systems.

2028 copper production guidance is 790,000–850,000 tons.

Chile’s 2028 guidance remains at 500,000–530,000 tons, supported by new high-grade ore at Los Bronces and increased throughput at Collahuasi after the completion of a 210,000-ton-per-day expansion at the end of 2027.

Peru’s 2028 guidance is 290,000–320,000 tons, reflecting stable production levels.

Copper guidance depends on water resource availability.

2. Iron Ore

2026 guidance has been raised to 55–59 million tons (previously 54–58 million tons), including 31–33 million tons at Kumba and 24–26 million tons at Minas-Rio (previously 23–25 million tons). The upward revision for Minas-Rio reflects expected strong operational performance and stable ore supply leading to higher recovery rates. Kumba’s 2026 output will be below 2025 levels due to the commissioning of the Ultra-High-Pressure Dense Media Separation (UHDMS) plant in the second half of 2026, but sales are expected to remain unaffected by inventory drawdowns. Kumba’s output guidance is constrained by third-party rail and port availability and operational performance.

The 2027 guidance remains unchanged at 59–63 million tons (Kumba 35–37 million tons; Minas-Rio 24–26 million tons).

The 2028 guidance is 58–62 million tons (Kumba 35–37 million tons; Minas-Rio 23–25 million tons). Minas-Rio’s output slightly declines due to ore feed variability in the more complex zones, offsetting gains from the reinstalled flotation towers.

3. Diamonds

Given the challenging environment for rough diamond trading, 2026 guidance is adjusted to 21–26 million carats (100% basis), down from 26–29 million carats previously. De Beers will continue monitoring the rough diamond market to align production with current demand.

Anglo American is actively progressing with De Beers’ dual-track separation plan, with an organized sale process underway.

4. Coking Coal

Anglo American is committed to divesting its coking coal business, with the sale process progressing smoothly and expected to conclude with a transaction in 2026.

5. Nickel

Anglo American has signed a final agreement to sell its nickel business to MMG Singapore Resources Private Limited, currently advancing EU antitrust approval.

Risk Warnings

1. Unexpected tightening of Federal Reserve policies and recession risks;

2. Ongoing Russia-Ukraine and Israel-Palestine conflicts;

3. Domestic consumption weaker than expected;

4. Renewed severe overseas energy issues.

Securities Analyst: Yan Rong S1120519100004

Publication Date: March 8, 2026

“Anglo American’s Q4 2025 copper output decreased 14% YoY to 170,000 tons; 2026 copper guidance revised from 760,000–820,000 tons to 700,000–760,000 tons”

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