US semiconductor stocks plunged overnight, Intel dropped over 5%, Chinese concept stocks broadly declined, and international oil prices fell sharply in short-term trading

Reporter | Jin Shan, Wu Bin

Editor | Li Yutong

On Thursday (March 12), the three major U.S. stock indexes all closed lower, with the Dow down 1.56%, the S&P 500 down 1.52%, and the Nasdaq down 1.78%.

Large tech stocks declined across the board, with Tesla down over 3%, Facebook down more than 2%, Apple nearly 2%, and Google, Nvidia, and Amazon each dropping over 1%.

Chip stocks generally fell, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index down 3.43%, Intel dropping over 5%, TSMC down 5%, Microchip Technology, Texas Instruments, and NXP Semiconductors each falling over 4%, AMD down more than 3%, and Micron Technology down over 3%.

Bank stocks all declined, with JPMorgan Chase down over 1%, Goldman Sachs down more than 4%, Citigroup down over 3%, Morgan Stanley down more than 4%, Bank of America nearly 3%, and Wells Fargo down over 2%.

Aerospace stocks were weak, with Boeing down over 4%, United Airlines down more than 4%, Delta Air Lines down over 2%, Southwest Airlines down more than 7%, and United Airlines down over 4%.

Energy stocks rose against the trend, with ExxonMobil up over 1%, Chevron up more than 2%, ConocoPhillips up over 2%, Schlumberger down more than 7%, and Western Oil up over 5%.

Most Chinese concept stocks declined, with the NASDAQ Golden Dragon China Index down 1.02%. Hesai Technology fell over 5%, China Internet Plus Holdings down more than 5%, iQIYI down over 4%, Atour Lifestyle down more than 4%, and Xiaopeng Motors down over 4%; meanwhile, Xpeng Motors rose over 3%, Tencent Music increased over 2%, and Atlas Solar Energy nearly 2%.

On March 13, gold and silver opened with mixed movements. As of press time, spot gold was up 0.2%, at $5,088 per ounce. Spot silver briefly fell over 0.3%, then rebounded to rise, currently at $84 per ounce.

International crude oil opened higher, with WTI crude briefly surpassing $98 per barrel, then sharply dropping below $96 per barrel.

According to CCTV News, on the 12th local time, Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Ravanchi said in an interview that Iran allows some countries’ ships to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. Ravanchi stated that some countries have discussed the issue of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz with Iran, and Iran has cooperated with them, but countries involved in aggression against Iran do not enjoy “safe passage rights” through the strait.

Additionally, according to CCTV News, the spokesperson for Iran’s Hatem Abiyah Central Command said on the 12th local time that Iran warns the U.S., Israel, and all their allies that any actions targeting Iran’s energy facilities and ports will trigger a strong Iranian response. If such incidents occur, all oil and gas facilities within the region operated by the U.S. and its allies will face the risk of being ignited and destroyed.

As hopes for a quick resolution to Middle East conflicts nearly vanish, U.S. inflation risks have significantly increased, and soaring oil prices could transmit to core inflation.

According to Lu Zhe, Chief Economist at Dongwu Securities, if oil prices stay between $80 and $100 per barrel, the U.S. CPI over the next six months should be around 0.3% to 0.4% month-on-month, with the year-over-year CPI growth rate by September likely between 2.8% and 3.5%. If oil prices spiral out of control upward, U.S. inflation could repeat the double peak of the stagflation period in the 1970s.

Fitch Ratings, in its latest “Global Economic Outlook March 2026,” raised its forecast for Brent crude oil’s average price in 2026 from $63 to $70 per barrel, assuming the Strait of Hormuz remains closed for about a month. By the second half of 2026, oil prices are expected to fall to around $60 per barrel. This revision does not significantly impact the basic economic outlook.

However, if oil prices rise to $100 per barrel and stay there, global supply will face severe shocks. Fitch expects that after four quarters, global GDP will decline by 0.4%, and U.S. inflation will rise by 1.2 to 1.5 percentage points.

CME’s latest “Federal Reserve Watch” shows a 90% probability that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points by March, with a 99.1% chance of holding rates steady. The probability of a 25 basis point cut by the Fed by April is 3.9%, with a 96.0% chance of no change, and a 0% chance of a 50 basis point cut. By June, the probability of a 25 basis point cut is 19.5%.

Due to increased inflation risks from Middle East conflicts, Goldman Sachs has delayed its expectations for Fed rate cuts, now predicting the Fed will cut rates by 25 basis points in September and December. Previously, Goldman Sachs had expected a new rate-cut cycle to begin in June, with another cut in September.