On the twelfth day of the war, Trump has left the whole world bewildered.

On the twelfth day of the war, global audiences have been left bewildered by Trump.

Early Tuesday Beijing time, he said casually to CBS cameras: this war is almost completely over, America is far ahead of schedule.

Before the words even faded, the Pentagon's account posted a blunt message: "We are just beginning to fight."

Hours later, Defense Secretary Hegseth fired back at a briefing: today will be the most intense day yet, with the most fighter jets and bombers about to be deployed.

A reporter asked Trump: who is right, you or the Defense Secretary? Trump answered without hesitation: "I think both are right."

By evening, he switched to another version: "We have already achieved victories in many areas, but not enough. We will move forward with greater determination than ever before, fighting for final victory."

Same day, same president, four completely different scripts.

This isn't a head of state's war speech. This is a desperate gambler at the poker table talking incoherently.

BBC was left stunned, saying the president's messaging is dizzying, and those looking for clues about when the war will end end up with far more questions than answers.

But anyone with basic financial knowledge can see right through Trump's scheme—he's manipulating markets.

Forbes magazine noticed that after Trump told an interviewer the war was nearly over, international oil prices plummeted accordingly, with Brent crude falling from near the $120 highs.

US stocks got a dead-cat bounce too, with all three major indices turning red at close after plunging in early trading.

But Tuesday evening before US markets opened, Trump floated through Fox the possibility of possible willingness to talk with Iran, sending oil prices into violent swings again.

This isn't commanding a war at all. This is using presidential rhetoric to do wave trading on stocks and oil prices.

Trying to both steady voters terrified by oil prices and maintain military pressure on Iran, Trump wishes he could split himself in two, playing both red face and white face.

But the problem is, Iran won't cooperate with the script.

Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister Araghchi laid it out plainly: the primary condition for ceasefire is no more aggression, and the ultimate decision on the situation belongs to Iran.

Parliament Speaker Kalibaf was even harsher: we will never seek a ceasefire; we must strike the aggressors head-on, so they never dare invade Iran again.

Trump threatened that if Iran blocks the Strait of Hormuz, America will deliver strikes twenty times more fierce than before.

Iran's Revolutionary Guard spokesman shot back: you're using lies and deception to apply psychological pressure; the end of the war is decided by Iran, not by Trump.

What really frustrates Trump is that the old Khamenei he personally took out has now been replaced by a younger version standing again.

After the new Supreme Leader Mujtaba was sworn in, millions of Iranians poured into the streets to pledge loyalty. Iran's media says the new leader will deliver a speech in hours, though it keeps getting delayed for security reasons, but the regime machine keeps running.

A CNN commentary laid bare Trump's predicament.

The article says the only direct way to solve the Strait of Hormuz crisis is for the US Navy to conduct escorts—which Trump promised to launch soon last week.

But sources describe the strait's current situation as a "valley of death," meaning convoy duty would put naval vessels in danger, with the sole purpose of protecting tankers, offering no clear strategic advantage to the war itself.

In other words, Trump now faces a choice: either watch oil prices soar, voters explode in anger, and midterm elections collapse; or send the US Navy into that narrow 33-kilometer-wide passage, turning warships into live targets for Iranian anti-ship missiles.

What's that called? That's called being stuck between a rock and a hard place, trapped on all sides.

The Wall Street Journal revealed that due to soaring oil prices and concerns that prolonged conflict could trigger political backlash, some of Trump's advisors have privately urged him to find an exit plan from the war.

The team recently concluded they need a more aggressive communication strategy to convince the public to support the war, as many consumers are facing rising gas prices.

But the problem is, the initiative to exit the war isn't in Trump's hands.

Iran has already made it clear: no hostile forces are allowed to export a single drop of oil from this region.

Any Arab or European country that expels American and Israeli ambassadors can pass freely through the Strait of Hormuz the next day. This is clearly creating a dilemma for Gulf states—you can't both stay allied with America and get an oil transit pass from Iran.

On the twelfth day of war, Trump's victory narrative has been shredded to pieces.

He wanted to quickly crush Iran with a decapitation strike, but instead created an Iran in national martyrdom; he wanted to control the Strait of Hormuz to command the global energy lifeline, but instead drove oil to $120 boomeranging against himself; he wanted to showcase American hegemonic lightning strikes, but instead trapped himself in a dead end where either the economy collapses or the Navy collapses.

More ironically, the old Khamenei he personally killed is now the spiritual totem of the Iranian people, the martyr saint of Islam.

Trump's strike not only failed to destroy Iran's resistance will, but instead sent all of Iran's surrender faction into history's trash bin.

So you see, after Trump posted another threatening tweet Tuesday evening, the White House press secretary could only come out to smooth things over: the president will decide when Iran is in a position of unconditional surrender; this doesn't mean Iran's regime will come out and declare surrender itself, but when the president decides it no longer poses a threat, it is in a state of surrender.

Translated into plain language: I declare you have surrendered, so you have surrendered, even if you're still fighting.

This self-delusional logic exposes Trump's deepest anxiety—he cannot thoroughly defeat Iran on the battlefield, so he can only use rhetoric to declare victory.

And that new leader hiding in the rubble, that Iran still shooting missiles out every day, is telling him with the most stubborn stance:

Go ahead and make your case, I'll keep fighting. Let's see who gives up first. $ETH