The US Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE) is about to be released, and the market has generally entered a cautious wait-and-see phase. As a key inflation indicator that the Federal Reserve focuses on long-term, core PCE data not only relates to assessments of US inflation trends but will also directly impact market expectations for the subsequent interest rate policy path. Currently, institutions generally expect that the core PCE monthly rate will remain in a moderate range, but if actual results exceed expectations, it may further reinforce market judgment that high interest rates will be maintained for a longer period.

Currently, the mainstream market expectation for this US PCE is: core PCE monthly rate approximately 0.3%~0.4%, and annual rate roughly maintains in the 2.8%~2.9% range. If the final data falls within this range, it suggests that US inflation has not experienced obvious cooling, and the Federal Reserve will likely continue to maintain a cautious stance, with near-term rate cut expectations unlikely to significantly increase.

From a market impact perspective, if data exceeds expectations, it means inflation stickiness remains strong, the US dollar and US Treasury yields typically rise, risk assets face initial pressure, Bitcoin is prone to rapid pullbacks, and Ethereum often shows larger volatility, with short-term trends potentially sharper declines before finding support. If data comes in below expectations, the market will re-strengthen easing expectations for the year, fund risk appetite improves, Bitcoin typically leads the charge toward upper liquidity, while Ethereum more easily forms enlarged volume follow-ups.

Combining current market conditions, both are in the pre-data compression consolidation phase. The real key is not the data itself, but whether the market achieves volume breakout of the current oscillation structure after data release. Usually the first wave is emotion, the second wave is the true direction, so tonight is more suitable for processing in the direction of the trend after confirmation #比特币站上七万美元 $BTC