First Appearance in Government Work Report: How Far Away Is "Future Energy"?

During the National Two Sessions, member of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC) and Chief Scientist in Fusion at China National Nuclear Corporation (CNNC) Duan Xuru was repeatedly asked this question: When will China’s “Artificial Sun” become commercially available?

Behind the high enthusiasm for this topic is the search for an important era-defining question: “Future Energy.”

From the beginning of 2024, the seven departments issued the “Implementation Opinions on Promoting Innovation and Development of Future Industries” (referred to as the “Implementation Opinions”), which regard “Future Energy” as one of the future industries. This year, the government work report also mentioned “Future Energy” for the first time. What does this upgrade and deployment signify?

Several representatives and members interviewed believe that in the first year of the 14th Five-Year Plan, China has placed “Future Energy” in an important position for cultivating and developing future industries. This is not only a necessary requirement to safeguard energy security and pursue green transformation but also a strategic choice to seize the high ground in global industrial competition.

Recently, international oil prices have experienced a “rollercoaster” ride, highlighting how geopolitical risks are disrupting the outlook for the global energy economy.

“China, as the world’s largest energy consumer, always prioritizes ensuring stable and resilient energy supply,” said Lu Chunxiang, a researcher at the Shanxi Coal Chemistry Institute of the Chinese Academy of Sciences and a National People’s Congress (NPC) deputy. Currently, the world faces the depletion of fossil fuels and the challenge of green low-carbon transformation. The development of new technologies like AI has driven explosive growth in electricity demand. Whoever leads in “Future Energy” will gain the initiative in future development.

In this regard, Ma Yongsheng, a CPPCC member and academician of the Chinese Academy of Engineering, also expressed deep feelings: “‘Future Energy’ is not just an energy issue but also a development issue.”

So, what exactly is the “Future Energy” that China aims to cultivate? How far are we from integrating it into our daily lives?

According to Yang Quanhong, a CPPCC member and Beiyang Chair Professor at Tianjin University’s School of Chemical Engineering, this concept does not refer to a single energy form but rather a cluster of cutting-edge energy technologies. Lu Chunxiang summarized its characteristics as high-tech, more efficient, renewable, low-carbon, or zero-carbon.

Looking at specific sectors, according to the “Implementation Opinions,” the “Future Energy” industry mainly focuses on nuclear energy, nuclear fusion, hydrogen energy, biomass energy, and includes new types of crystalline silicon solar cells and energy storage. The draft outline of the 14th Five-Year Plan also emphasizes “forward-looking layout of future industries” and explicitly mentions promoting “hydrogen and nuclear fusion energy” as new drivers of economic growth.

The warming of top-level strategies depends on breakthroughs in underlying technologies and the advancement of industrial ecosystems.

Take hydrogen energy as an example. Currently, China’s hydrogen industry is the largest in the world, with green hydrogen production capacity exceeding 220,000 tons annually, accounting for over 50% of the global total. Core equipment manufacturing capabilities such as electrolysers have advanced to the world’s forefront. Green hydrogen is rapidly penetrating high-energy-consuming industries like transportation, refining, chemicals, and metallurgy.

The commercialization process of controlled nuclear fusion, known as the “Artificial Sun,” is also accelerating. China’s fusion industry is gradually forming a new pattern led by national teams and diversified innovation by private enterprises. Magnetic confinement fusion research is already among the top internationally. Duan Xuru predicts that fusion burning experiments could begin by 2027.

However, for China to open the door to commercializing “Future Energy,” many challenges remain in science and technology, industrial ecology, policy standards, and more.

How will breakthroughs be achieved in the future? Strengthening original innovation and tackling key core technologies are undoubtedly the top priorities.

“China’s scientific and technological innovation capability from zero to one needs to be improved, and from one to full industry application, intellectual property protection must be strengthened to form self-growing and self-iterating production lines,” said Lu Chunxiang.

Jin Yanjian, an NPC deputy and executive director and Party secretary of Jilin Petrochemical Company of China National Petroleum Corporation, suggested vigorously implementing green and low-carbon technological innovation projects and reserving forward-looking and disruptive technologies.

Duan Xuru revealed that in the next three to five years, China’s core focus in fusion technology R&D will still be on solving scientific and technological issues related to plasma burning and steady-state operation. Meanwhile, advanced technologies such as high-temperature superconductivity and artificial intelligence will be further integrated into fusion research.

At the same time, leveraging China’s large market scale and rich application scenarios is equally crucial.

For example, in hydrogen energy, a major challenge is the “production-to-use gap”—“producing, transporting, and using are disconnected.”

“China is in the first tier of global hydrogen competition, but the lead is not in technological high ground but in market size and application depth,” said Ma Yongsheng. To truly enable hydrogen to flow and be used, breakthroughs are needed in “large-scale infrastructure,” “industrialization of application scenarios,” and “closed-loop business models.”

After six months of on-site work at the Daan wind and solar green hydrogen synthesis ammonia demonstration project, Li Wenhui, an NPC deputy and expert in thermal control at the Baishan branch of China Power Investment Corporation’s Jilin Energy Investment, shared deep reflections: the bottleneck in hydrogen industry development has shifted from single equipment to system integration, with policy standards and multi-skilled talent becoming key constraints. He suggested accelerating the cultivation of a domestic “green market” through policies like guaranteed electricity prices and fee reductions to promote high-quality development of green hydrogen energy.

Industry analysts expect that by 2026, China’s hydrogen industry could reach a turning point from demonstration exploration to large-scale development. Huatai Securities’ research report indicates that by 2030, global demand for green hydrogen could reach 8.3 million tons, with China’s green hydrogen market having nearly 15 times the growth potential. Cost reductions in renewable electricity, rising carbon prices, and policy support will jointly push green hydrogen toward parity pricing. Domestic project operators, hydrogen ammonia equipment suppliers, and electrolyzer manufacturers are expected to benefit.

Developing future industries requires not only increased forward-looking planning but also patience in respecting industry development laws. The government work report states, “Establish mechanisms for increased investment in future industries and risk-sharing.”

“‘Future Energy’ investments should be phased, risk-classified, and supported by scientific evaluation and fault-tolerance mechanisms to ensure safety,” Yang Quanhong suggested. Basic research and foundational innovation need long-term stable support from the state; pilot and demonstration phases should be jointly built by government, central enterprises, local governments, and social capital; and industrialization should more actively leverage market forces and patient capital.