What Chinese history has taught me the most is this:


Don't make long-term plans, only short-term ones.
Why do so many Chinese people—whether in terms of IQ, ability, physical fitness, or health—possess first-rate qualities, receive moral education from childhood, never step out of line, yet end up with nothing and live in pain?
The reason is they believe in grand narratives and make long-term plans. What intellectuals love most and want to do is predict the future. They want to extract some pattern from it.
In reality, individual power is utterly insignificant before the overall tide and historical laws. This is what we call the tide.
Can anyone, no matter how strong, stop the tide?
According to the "test-taker" view of history: one unit of effort yields one unit of reward. If you work hard, you'll get good results. The best role models for test-takers are ancient capable ministers like Yu Qian—"let bones be crushed without fear, and leave a clean name for eternity." Work hard on the civil service exams, climb to high position, then serve the country with loyalty.
Yet the outcome is being beheaded and displayed, with corpses thrown on the streets. Truly crushed to pieces.
Before the tide, whether you're a capable minister, great general, or even an emperor, no one can resist the historical trend. Emperor Chongzhen—whether diligent or not—also pursued rigorous governance, yet the Ming Dynasty fell regardless. Everything is about historical moments. Some emperors spend all day in the palace hosting debaucherous parties—mixing big and small gatherings, engaging in LGBT activities—yet their dynasties maintain stability just fine. But catch a bad historical moment, and even if an emperor attends court daily and pursues diligent governance, the state still falls and the dynasty collapses. The first type of emperor, even after losing the nation, receives decent treatment because the new emperor knows they pose no threat, so they're kept alive to demonstrate benevolence—like Liu Chan or Chen Houzhu. But the second type of emperor necessarily perishes with their fallen nation.
Therefore, never believe in grand narratives. The future changes constantly. The ten, twenty, or thirty-year plans you carefully make can be destroyed by someone else in a single day.
To live well, only choose paths beneficial to yourself. Whoever asks you to pursue grand narratives and long-term plans while sacrificing present interests is harming you. That's just how it is.
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