March 16, 2026 Spot Gold Midday Analysis

Early session rallied then pulled back, $5000 level saw repeated tug-of-war, cautious sentiment awaits

Last week gold rallied and fell back, weekly cumulative decline nearly 3%, profit-taking at highs and capital shifting to dollar assets pulled prices down from peak levels. Asian session this morning directly probed $4967, briefly breaking below the $5000 psychological level, then quickly rebounded to oscillate around $5010 - typical "emotion-driven selling + low-level buying," not a trend reversal.

News fundamentals boil down to two key points: First, Fed maintaining rates unchanged in March has >99% probability, rate cut expectations delayed to June, high rates suppressing gold holding costs; Second, dollar index firmly holding above 100 level, gold under pressure but central banks continuing to buy gold and geopolitical risks not fully dissipated provide support at lower levels. This week focus closely on the 19th Fed decision, treat it as oscillation for now, don't chase emotionally.

Broke below short-term moving averages, MACD death cross but RSI entering oversold territory, technical rebound needed - don't blindly go short; 4-hour: Bollinger Bands opening downward, $5000 is the dividing line between bulls and bears, holding firm for rebounds, breaking for weak oscillation. Support at $4980-$4950, resistance at $5030-$5100.

Midday operation strategy: light long positions on pullback to $4980-$4990, stop-loss at $4950, target $5020-$5040; strict position control, don't bet heavy on one direction.

Above is personal advice only, for reference only, not investment basis. Specific operations follow Cheng Jingsheng Shifu layout!! $XAU ‌#XAU