How to Implement the "15th Five-Year Plan"? In-Depth Analysis by Securities Firms on Capital Market Development Direction

CNR Beijing, March 11 — (Reporter Fan Rui) On March 6, 2026, CSRC Chairman Wu Qing attended the Fourth Session of the 14th National People’s Congress Economic Press Conference. He clarified the five major enhancement goals for high-quality development of the capital market during the 14th Five-Year Plan, disclosed two core incremental policies: deepening the reform of the Growth Enterprise Market (GEM) and optimizing the refinancing mechanism. He elaborated on the regulatory authorities’ clear direction and pathways for capital work throughout 2026 and during the 14th Five-Year Plan, outlining the future development path of the capital market.

To interpret policy impacts and identify key directions, CNR Finance interviewed several chief analysts and directors of research institutes from securities firms, breaking down policy benefits and industry opportunities.

Deploying the Five Major Enhancement Areas for the Capital Market During the 14th Five-Year Plan

At the meeting, the CSRC clarified the core development goals for the capital market during the 14th Five-Year Plan, focusing on serving China’s modernization and building a strong financial nation. The plan coordinates risk prevention, strengthened regulation, and high-quality development, aiming to achieve five new improvements: a more resilient market, a more inclusive system, higher-quality listed companies, more effective regulation and investor protection, and a higher level of opening up.

“This deployment establishes the main development line for the capital market during the 14th Five-Year Plan, with a policy tone of stability and prioritizing quality, alleviating market uncertainty about policy directions, and stabilizing the long-term confidence of market participants,” said Zhao Ran, Chief Analyst of Non-Banking Financials at CITIC Construction Investment Securities. “The 14th Five-Year Plan is a critical period for laying the foundation for basic socialist modernization, requiring the capital market to better serve resource allocation and match the needs of modern industrial system construction.”

Zhang Yi, Chief Economist at Financial Street Securities, pointed out that this deployment clarifies the functional positioning of the capital market in supporting industrial transformation during the 14th Five-Year Plan: at the institutional level, by reforming the GEM and optimizing refinancing mechanisms to shift institutional supply from inclusive to targeted; at the regulatory level, establishing a long-term governance logic of “punishment to promote integrity and penalties to build trust,” pushing the capital market from a phase of scale expansion to one of quality improvement. He believes this has profound guiding significance for work throughout the year and the entire 14th Five-Year Plan period.

Upcoming Overall Plan for GEM Reform

Wu Qing explicitly stated at the meeting that the CSRC will soon release an overall plan for GEM reform, focusing on three main measures: first, establishing a more precise and inclusive listing standard to support high-quality innovation and entrepreneurship enterprises in new industries, new formats, new technologies, and modern service sectors; second, copying and promoting reform experiences such as pre-IPO review, existing shareholder capital increases, and optimized issuance pricing from the STAR Market to GEM; third, improving the entire system from listing selection to full-process regulation.

“Chairman Wu’s remarks clearly define the reform direction for GEM to address the current shortcomings in matching relevant enterprises,” said Wang Jun, Chief Strategy Analyst at Bank of China Securities. “This is not just about loosening thresholds but about expanding GEM’s coverage from focusing on ‘advanced manufacturing + technology growth’ to a more diversified new productive force.”

Zhao Ran pointed out that GEM is positioned to serve innovative and entrepreneurial enterprises. Currently, the listing standards lack inclusiveness for new business formats, and reforms are needed to align with industry upgrading trends. The reform of the STAR Market has established a mature system supporting tech innovation enterprises, providing a foundation for promotion to GEM, enabling the capital market to support innovation across all sectors. Through GEM reform, GEM can better serve local economies and private sector development, broadening direct financing channels for high-quality innovative startups.

Wang Jun sees two potential reform paths for the “fourth set” of GEM standards: one is introducing a “market value + revenue + cash flow” robust standard, mainly targeting mature chain consumer and brand service companies with scaled revenue but short-term profit fluctuations due to marketing or offline expansion; by examining operating cash flow, risks dependent on financing expansion can be eliminated, selecting industry leaders with genuine self-sustaining capabilities. The second is building a “market value + financial growth + non-financial innovation” growth standard, aimed at rapidly expanding new consumer enterprises, referencing the detailed logic of the STAR Market’s “fifth set” standards with four screening criteria.

Deepening Investment and Financing Reforms in Three Dimensions

The CSRC stated that it will optimize refinancing mechanisms from three aspects: first, improving system inclusiveness by refining strategic investor recognition standards, launching shelf issuance, perfecting lock-in pricing mechanisms, and streamlining procedures to facilitate participation of medium- and long-term funds; second, strengthening the “support the excellent, support the tech” orientation by extending the “light-asset, high R&D” recognition standards of the STAR and GEM to the main board, relaxing R&D funding limits, shortening financing intervals, and improving review efficiency for high-quality tech firms; third, strengthening full-process regulation by cracking down on “hype-style” refinancing and violations of fundraising use.

Zhao Ran emphasized that refinancing is a core channel for listed companies to improve and strengthen themselves and sustain R&D investment. Previously, the system’s fit for high-quality tech firms was insufficient, and issuance efficiency and convenience needed enhancement. System optimization should meet the reasonable financing needs of quality enterprises while balancing investor interests, guiding rational and effective financing.

Sun Yin, Deputy Director of Western Securities and Chief Analyst of Non-Banking Financials, believes that deepening investment and financing reform centers on serving the real economy with high quality and improving investor returns. On one hand, mechanisms at the financing end should be optimized to solidify the supply foundation for high-quality development. Building on the existing measures at the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing exchanges, regulators will further improve review and registration mechanisms for refinancing, enhancing system inclusiveness and adaptability, emphasizing “support the excellent, support the tech,” and increasing the proportion of direct and equity financing in China.

On the other hand, the investment side should be improved to enhance long-term market stability. Sun Yin noted that currently, medium- and long-term funds hold over 50% of A-shares’ circulating market value. Future regulation will continue to optimize standards for strategic investors in refinancing, making it easier for medium- and long-term funds to participate in the capital market and facilitate a two-way flow between assets and funds.

“Only through continuous deepening of investment and financing reforms, serving the real economy with a focus on quality and risk prevention, can we enhance the core competitiveness of the capital market and better serve high-quality economic and social development during the 14th Five-Year Plan, injecting strong capital momentum into building a strong financial nation,” Sun Yin told CNR Finance.

Strengthening Market Stability Mechanisms

At the release, the CSRC reiterated the importance of stabilizing the capital market, including “consolidating and strengthening strategic reserve forces and stability mechanisms, further improving the long-term funds’ entry mechanisms, dynamically refining policies to address external risks, and being prepared to use these tools to maintain market stability.”

Guosheng Securities Chief Economist Xiong Yuan pointed out that this indicates future efforts to stabilize the market will shift toward normalization and institutionalization, with a policy environment still friendly. He expects regulators to clarify more comprehensive policy tools, improved risk monitoring and regulation, and more streamlined inter-departmental coordination, while emphasizing balancing internal and external risks and building buffers.

Xiong Yuan believes that internally, “long-term funds entering the market” are crucial for stability, beyond current efforts to promote social security, insurance, and other funds. Future focus will include the “dynamic improvement of policies to address external input risks,” covering risks from major central bank monetary spillovers, extreme fluctuations in international financial markets, geopolitical tensions, and commodity shocks. He explained that “being prepared and using the tools” may imply the need for new policy reserves.