Interpreting the "15th Five-Year Plan" Outline | Exclusive Interview with Zhang Yuzhuo: Future Economic Growth Will See More Increments from Emerging Pillar Industries, Next-Generation Information Technology, New Materials, New Energy and Other Fields Are Expected to Become Emerging Pillar Industries First

The 15th Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development of the People’s Republic of China (hereinafter referred to as the “Plan”) was announced externally on March 13.

In the area of “cultivating and strengthening emerging and future industries,” the Plan proposes to strengthen source technology supply, accelerate the construction of application scenarios and ecological systems, cultivate more pillar and leading industries, and build new advantages for industrial development. It also makes specific deployments in three aspects: developing and expanding emerging industries, forward-looking layout of future industries, and improving the ecological environment for industrial innovation and development.

What signals are released from shifting from “strategic emerging industries” to “emerging pillar industries”? Which industries are likely to become the first to grow into emerging pillar industries? How should we understand the “demonstration projects for future industry development”? What are the main considerations behind exploring new regulatory approaches like “sandbox regulation” and trigger-based supervision?

In response to these questions, NBD (National Business Daily) interviewed Zhang Yuzhe, researcher at the Institute of Industrial Economics and Technological Economics, National Development and Reform Commission.

Most future economic growth will come from emerging pillar industries

NBD: The Plan emphasizes accelerating the development of strategic emerging industries such as new-generation information technology, new energy, new materials, intelligent connected new energy vehicles, robotics, biomedicine, high-end equipment, aerospace, etc., and building characteristic, complementary strategic emerging industry clusters based on local conditions. It aims to cultivate a number of emerging pillar industries with great growth potential, high technological content, and broad penetration. What signals are conveyed by the shift from “strategic emerging industries” to “emerging pillar industries”?

Zhang Yuzhe: First, “strategic” indicates their important status; “emerging” suggests they are still in a potential development stage and not fully developed; while “emerging pillar” means they need to play a greater role.

From an industry development perspective, I believe that the value-added of traditional industries can still be improved in quality, but the room for quantity growth will become smaller, and development scale may face bottlenecks. In this context, future-oriented strategic emerging industries and future industries will gradually take on the “main role,” transforming into emerging pillar industries. Previously, discussions focused more on their “potential” and “technological strength.” In the future, the focus will shift to transforming potential into strength—while the technology itself remains unchanged, the change lies in moving from “growth potential” to “actual scale.”

NBD: For “strategic emerging industries” to become “emerging pillar industries,” what proportion of the overall industry should they reach?

Zhang Yuzhe: Generally, reaching 5% of GDP can be considered as a pillar industry. But “emerging pillar” emphasizes the rapid growth stage within the industry development cycle, not full maturity. During this period, most of the incremental growth will come from these sectors. That is, the existing scale of traditional industries is large, making it difficult for incremental growth alone to drive the stock or change the structure. When incremental growth leads to structural changes in the stock, that growth must be very fast and play a larger role. However, becoming a pillar industry is a process that requires sustained effort—it cannot be achieved overnight.

NBD: Among these strategic emerging industries, which do you think will be the first to grow into emerging pillar industries?

Zhang Yuzhe: I believe that new-generation information technology, new materials, new energy, and high-end equipment are more likely to become emerging pillar industries first. The first three cover broader areas and have wider penetration; high-end equipment, to some extent, reflects the intelligence and high-end transformation of traditional industries, including stock upgrades and renovations that can be converted into high-end equipment. In comparison, industries like automobiles, robotics, and pharmaceuticals are more product-specific, and aerospace requires a longer development cycle.

On exploring “walk-and-see-and-manage” approaches for new business forms

NBD: The Plan proposes establishing mechanisms for increased investment and risk sharing in future industries, organizing demonstration projects for future industry development, and exploring multiple technological routes, typical application scenarios, feasible business models, and market regulation rules. How do you understand the “demonstration projects for future industry development”? What is their purpose?

Zhang Yuzhe: Future industries driven by technological innovation may become new engines and driving forces. Demonstration projects, from a practical perspective, are mostly government-organized showcases that represent future directions and trends, playing a leading and guiding role in relevant industry sectors. However, the internal economic characteristics of future industries vary—market sizes differ, some are just starting, others are in rapid growth phases; technological complexity varies, and product and technology penetration rates are different. Therefore, differentiated practical guidance should be provided based on these characteristics, using project-based approaches to promote resource allocation efficiency and effectiveness.

NBD: The Plan also proposes establishing efficient and convenient access mechanisms suitable for new business forms, and exploring new regulatory approaches like “sandbox regulation” and trigger-based supervision. What are the main considerations behind this?

Zhang Yuzhe: The unprecedented changes in the past century are reflected in the dual uncertainties faced by future industries—technological uncertainty and market uncertainty. Under this background, we need to encourage innovation and development while preventing safety accidents.

How to balance innovation and safety? “Sandbox regulation” involves conducting experiments in specific areas or scenarios; trigger-based supervision follows a pre-, during-, and post-event logic, rather than a one-size-fits-all approach—once certain conditions are triggered during the process, supervision is intensified, and similarly after the event. Both approaches aim to encourage innovation while avoiding expanding safety risks.

Take the recently popular OpenClaw (commonly called “Lobster”) as an example. It is an innovative product, and many regions are supporting its development, but there are also safety risks involved. It is more suitable for trigger-based supervision. Many risks only become apparent during use; we can pre-judge some risks in general but find it difficult to predict all specific risks in advance. Therefore, pre-approval supervision may hinder development; it is better to enhance resilience during the process—simply put, “walk-and-see-and-manage.”

NBD: During the 14th Five-Year Plan period, efforts will be made to cultivate and expand emerging industries and future industries, and localities will focus on these industries in their layouts. What should be paid attention to?

Zhang Yuzhe: First, avoid “biting off more than one can chew”—don’t rush into every trend just because it seems popular. Instead, tailor strategies to local conditions, focus on key areas, and coordinate development directions, resource allocation, and working mechanisms. For example, resource allocation—including human, financial, and material resources—should follow economic development laws, industry development patterns, and technological characteristics. Avoid reckless efforts just to boost economic growth; make better use of the government’s “visible hand.”

Second, regional development competition can help clarify trends and directions, but it’s important to avoid impulsiveness and overreach. Maintain a mindset of “success may not be achieved by me, but success will surely include me.”

Attention should be paid to AI’s negative impacts on employment, income distribution, and public services

NBD: The Plan proposes to fully implement the “AI+” action, strengthen the integration of AI with technological innovation, industrial development, cultural construction, people’s livelihood security, and social governance, and seize the commanding heights of AI industry applications to empower various sectors comprehensively. Does this mean AI will face great development opportunities? What role will AI play during the 14th Five-Year Plan?

Zhang Yuzhe: The Plan mentions AI multiple times, aligning with technological development trends and economic laws. AI will be like the steam engine and electricity in the past—an important driving force of the new industrial revolution. As a general-purpose technology, its penetration and enabling effects are crucial, and its development will determine the breadth, depth, and intensity of future growth.

We must correctly view the positive impact of technology on industries and the economy, leverage the rapid pace of technological progress and wide diffusion, and also prevent negative shocks that could cause structural impacts. Only then can we truly enhance people’s sense of gain.

NBD: To enable “AI+” to play such a significant enabling role in the next five years, do you see any challenges?

Zhang Yuzhe: AI is a general-purpose technology with strong versatility and integration potential across industries, so its development trend is clear.

One challenge is the maturity of the technology itself. AI is also rapidly evolving; currently, it may be transitioning from incubation to high-speed development. For example, generative AI based on Transformer architecture could see breakthroughs if new architectures or better technical implementations emerge, leading to new changes.

Another challenge comes from society. The negative impacts of AI on employment, income distribution, and public services need attention. AI replacing mid-skilled workers, including the employment pressure on young people, is already evident in many industries internationally. Regarding income distribution, it tends to be skill-based—those with higher skills accumulate more wealth, while those with less skill may see their incomes decline.