No AC coins? Estonia flirts with Trump: We're willing to help

[Text/Observer Network Ruan Jiaqing]

The Baltic region definitely has some say: first Lithuania was shouting about sending troops to help the U.S. fight Iran, now Estonia is also jumping up and down, eager to join the Trump-led naval escort plan that other European allies are avoiding…

According to Politico on the 18th, during an interview Tuesday evening, Estonian Defense Minister Hanno Pevkur stated that although the U.S. has not officially requested assistance from Tallinn, he has noticed widespread statements from President Trump calling on NATO allies to support the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Estonia is open to assisting the U.S. in Iran-related conflicts.

Pevkur said he is meeting with U.S. officials and military leaders, including Deputy National Security Advisor Andy Bieker, “We are willing to discuss this.”

He added, “Since the President (Trump) has made such a statement, we should at least be open to discussion to clarify how we can jointly respond to the current situation.”

Estonian Defense Minister Pevkur. Oriental IC

The U.S. claims Iran is laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz. Pevkur said Estonia can provide support with mine-clearing expertise. But he also emphasized, “Any mine-clearing operations must be preceded by a ceasefire.”

Earlier, when Trump called on countries to join military actions against Iran and dispatch warships to escort the Strait of Hormuz, several core U.S. allies explicitly refused. Pevkur declined to comment on the differing choices of European allies, only saying “Maintaining unity is crucial. Once unity is lost, it plays right into Russia’s hands after decades.”

“It’s pointless to worry about how the situation will develop,” he also said, “The fact is, the conflict has already started and continues. We must find a solution.”

But this stance clearly shows some overconfidence. Indeed, Estonia, as a post-WWII minefield hotspot, has extensive experience in mine clearance. Its tiny navy of about 400 personnel has almost all resources dedicated to mine-hunting technology, making it one of NATO’s most professional mine warfare forces in the Baltic.

However, Estonia’s navy only has three small minesweepers and a few patrol boats, lacking deep-sea supply capabilities and anti-air, anti-submarine systems. Facing Iran in the Strait of Hormuz, these vessels, each only around 400 tons, might be unable to escort commercial ships and could easily become targets themselves. Moreover, sending these fragile vessels halfway around the world would leave Estonia vulnerable at home if its defenses are compromised.

In this regard, German Defense Minister Pistorius has a clearer understanding: “Does Trump expect a few European frigates to do what the mighty U.S. Navy cannot?”

“This is not our war, and we did not start it,” he straightforwardly rejected, which is also the common attitude among many European countries toward Trump’s call.

Reuters on the 18th pointed out that even under Trump’s public pressure and trade threats, major European powers like Germany, France, the UK, Spain, and Italy have directly stated that the Iran conflict “has nothing to do with us,” and expressed concern over Trump’s lack of clear strategic goals in military strikes and the global risks involved.

The report notes that despite fears that angering Trump might cause him to abandon Europe on Ukraine or threaten NATO’s survival, European leaders’ blunt refusal to intervene in Iran reflects worries about being dragged into an uncoordinated, unclear, and unpopular conflict.

“European countries have weighed the benefits of staying out, which far outweigh the multiple risks faced by the already strained transatlantic relations,” Reuters also mentioned, adding that this move also carries a “retaliatory” tone. In their view, Trump’s easing of sanctions on Russian oil to lower prices is like a “backstab” against European allies.

Among European allies, Trump is especially displeased with UK Prime Minister Stamer, who initially refused to allow U.S. military use of UK bases. On the 17th, Trump even publicly mocked, “Stamer is not Churchill.”

Trump points to Churchill’s statue. Screenshot

But Stamer’s stance has strong public support. A YouGov poll shows 49% of Britons oppose the strike, with only 28% in favor. This forced Nigel Farage’s populist Reform Party and the opposition Conservative Party to retract their initial support for U.S. and UK actions, even rallying behind Stamer.

“I am the harshest critic of Stamer, but the White House’s mudslinging is childish,” said Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch. Reform Party member Robert Jenrick also stated, “I don’t want to see our Prime Minister scolded by foreign leaders.”

In Spain, Prime Minister Sanchez immediately condemned the attack on Iran as reckless and illegal, ignoring Trump’s trade sanctions threats, asserting “We will never be anyone’s vassal, never accept threats, and will defend our values.”

The Spanish government’s stance also enjoys broad public support. According to local polling firm 40dB, 68% of Spaniards oppose the war.

Even Germany’s initially supportive Chancellor Merkel, on Wednesday, told parliamentarians that while she agrees Iran should not threaten neighboring countries, she questions the legitimacy of the U.S.-led conflict.

“To date, the U.S. has not presented a convincing success plan, nor have they consulted with us or mentioned European assistance,” she said.

She told lawmakers, “We do not recommend the current course of action, so we declare that as long as the war continues, we will not participate in any way, including military means, to ensure the freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz.”

Reuters commented that for Merkel, who claims to be a “transatlanticist,” this statement was “remarkably frank.”

German ARD TV’s “Germany Trends” poll shows a similar trend: 58% of Germans oppose war, only 25% support. Even the far-right German Alternative for Germany (AfD), usually pro-Trump, criticized, “Trump came to power as a peace president, but he will end up as a war president.”

Reportedly, Europe is seeking to bypass the U.S. and independently establish a security coordination mechanism for the Strait of Hormuz.

Stamer recently revealed that the UK is working with allies to develop plans to reopen the strait; France is leading an alliance to escort merchant ships once stability is restored, explicitly excluding U.S. participation.

French President Macron said the plan will involve political and technical consultations, including discussions with shipping and insurance industries, “This work requires dialogue with Iran and efforts to de-escalate the situation.”

The report believes that European countries are striving to maintain unity and adapt to Trump’s unpredictable leadership style. EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Borrell told Reuters this week, “The EU is now calmer because we are used to dealing with unpredictable situations, staying calm and focused.”

It remains to be seen how this former Estonian Prime Minister and current EU official will evaluate their own government’s eagerness to “pledge allegiance” to the U.S.

This article is an exclusive report by Observer Network. Unauthorized reproduction is prohibited.