四大驱动力加持 煤炭板块早盘领涨 龙头股年内翻倍

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Source: Dongfang Wealth Research Center

On the morning of March 19, the three major A-share indices all declined, with the coal sector defying the trend to close up 1.05%, leading the market industry sectors. In individual stocks, Shaanxi Black Cat hit the daily limit, Dayou Energy rose over 4%, Shaanxi Coal Industry, China Shenhua, and China Coal Energy gained over 3%, and Yankuang Energy, Antai Group, JinKong Coal, and Haohua Energy increased over 2%.

Indonesia Coal Production Cuts Spark Turmoil

As the world’s largest coal exporter, Indonesia’s government recently announced a series of policies, including significant reductions in annual production quotas and increased export tariffs to limit coal exports. The coal production quota for 2025 was cut from the actual 7.9 billion tons in 2024 to 6 billion tons, with some mining companies reducing output by as much as 40%–70%. Under these policies, some miners have suspended new spot coal exports, directly disrupting the global coal trade landscape.

Indonesian President Joko Widodo recently stated that Indonesian coal, palm oil, and their derivatives must not be exported before meeting domestic demand to ensure energy and essential commodity supplies. He emphasized that Indonesia’s abundant natural resources must be maximized for the benefit of its people, and government resource management policies should prioritize national interests.

According to Guohai Securities research reports, in 2024, Indonesia’s thermal coal exports will account for 48% of global thermal coal exports (followed by Australia at 18% and Russia at 11%), making it the largest exporter. Over 60% of coal exports go to mainland China and India. In 2024, Indonesia exported 239 million tons to mainland China, 108 million tons to India, and 38.55 million tons to the Philippines, accounting for 43%, 19%, and 7%, respectively.

Image source: Guohai Securities

Four Major Drivers Reshape Valuation System

Guojin Securities pointed out that under the influence of four core drivers, the coal price center is expected to rise long-term.

1. Geopolitical conflicts boost energy premiums, substitution effects are significant

Macro background: The ongoing US-Iran conflict has caused international oil and gas prices to soar, with global capital paying increased attention to energy security issues.

Linkage effect: As a natural substitute for oil, coal demand has increased significantly. Coupled with Indonesia’s export policy adjustments, international coal prices have risen in tandem, with Newcastle thermal coal futures rising by as much as 17% in a week.

Conclusion: Geopolitical risk premiums are continuously injecting strength into the coal sector, enhancing its inflation resistance.

2. Dual supply-side contraction, solid cost support

Domestic capacity bottlenecks: Production inspections starting in late 2024 have led to spontaneous reductions in overproducing mines, with an estimated 200 million tons of capacity at risk of being cut.

Rising costs: Westward expansion of coal mining has led to systemic increases in extraction costs, supporting higher coal prices.

Overseas import inversion: Shipping costs from Russia’s Far East to China surged by 17%–27% in a week.

Price inversion: The gap between imported coal and domestic coal prices widened to 27.4 yuan/ton (imported costs higher than domestic), weakening the supplement role of imported coal and reinforcing domestic coal price support.

3. Explosive demand for coal chemical industry opens long-term growth space

Cost advantages: Under high oil prices, coal chemical routes have become significantly more economical.

Demand data: By 2025, coal consumption for chemical production will reach 362 million tons, an 11.5% increase year-over-year.

Future potential: Currently under construction and planned coal chemical projects have a potential coal demand exceeding 800 million tons, more than double current actual demand. This increase will provide long-term demand support and growth momentum for the coal industry.

4. “High dividend + resource revaluation” double boost

Defensive attribute: The average dividend yield of the coal sector exceeds 5%, making it highly attractive for allocation in the current market environment.

Funding aspect: Public funds still hold a low allocation in coal stocks, with significant room for replenishment.

Valuation re-assessment: As global mineral resource protectionism intensifies, coal, as a national energy security “ballast,” faces a systematic revaluation of its mineral resource value.

In the A-share market, supported by multiple favorable factors, coal stocks have recently been highly sought after, with rising stock prices. According to Dongfang Wealth Choice data, as of midday March 19, out of 35 constituent stocks in the CITIC Coal Industry, all but Dayou Energy rose this year, with a median increase of 19.03%. Among them, Jiangwu Equipment saw the largest increase, up over 113% year-to-date, with its stock price more than doubling.