Three major stock index futures rise together; Middle East conflict escalates amid "Super Central Bank Week," potentially leading to record-breaking stock market volatility

Pre-Market Market Trends

1. On Monday, March 16, U.S. stock futures rose across the board. As of press time, Nasdaq futures up 1.13%, S&P 500 futures up 1.00%, Dow futures up 0.79%.

2. European markets also gained: Germany DAX up 0.60%, UK FTSE 100 up 0.58%, France CAC40 up 0.14%, Euro Stoxx 50 up 0.39%.

3. Crude oil prices declined: WTI down 1.43% at $95.46 per barrel; Brent down 0.28% at $102.85 per barrel.

Market News

The escalation of Middle East conflict coincides with a “Super Central Bank Week,” testing AI faith! Since the U.S.-Israel airstrikes on Iran at the end of February ignited a new wave of Middle East geopolitical turmoil, market volatility has intensified. This week, such rare volatility may become even more severe. After Trump announced a “fierce airstrike” on Iran’s oil hub at Khark Island, tensions in the Middle East continue to escalate, with the possibility of Iran taking more aggressive countermeasures. Strait of Hormuz disruptions and Gulf oil producers forced to cut output could push international oil prices toward $150 or even $200. Meanwhile, the “Super Central Bank Week” will keep investors on high alert for market swings, as multiple central banks—including the Fed, ECB, Bank of Japan, Bank of England, Reserve Bank of Australia, and Bank of Canada—release new interest rate decisions and monetary policy guidance amid a macro environment clouded by “stagflation” pessimism. Additionally, AI faith, which influences global tech stocks, faces a major test this week—NVIDIA’s GTC conference and the Optical Fiber Conference (OFC) will be held, and memory giant Micron will also report earnings.

The “Quadruple Witching” event is coming! Will U.S. stocks experience record volatility? The Quadruple Witching—when stock index futures, options, and individual stock options and futures all expire—will occur this Friday. Historically, U.S. markets tend to see extreme swings on this day. With Middle East conflict unresolved, oil prices high, and derivatives expiring simultaneously, U.S. markets may see record volatility, with global markets following suit. Goldman Sachs recently released a report indicating that the current U.S. stock market is at a critical point of “collapse” and “short squeeze,” suggesting that since the late February U.S./Israel airstrikes on Iran ignited a new Middle East geopolitical storm, market volatility could intensify further.

Goldman Sachs sets the tone for U.S. stocks: earnings growth supports upside, S&P 500 could hit 7,600 by year-end. Strategists believe U.S. stocks still have room to rise, with projections that by the end of 2026, driven by sustained corporate earnings expansion and moderate economic growth, the S&P 500 could reach 7,600. This forecast is based on deep analysis of constituent companies’ earnings prospects—estimating that the S&P 500’s earnings per share (EPS) will grow to about $309 in 2026, and further to about $342 in 2027, with annual growth rates of approximately 12% and 10%, respectively. This earnings growth supports the price targets, implying a potential return of about 14% from current levels. The outlook suggests that even with high interest rates and a slightly tightening financial environment, markets remain confident in ongoing corporate profit expansion. Tech companies continue to be the core engine of U.S. stock earnings growth.

If oil prices stay high long-term, the S&P 500 could fall 15%? JPMorgan warns of a “domino effect.” JPMorgan Private Bank states that if oil prices do not fall back, the recent sell-off in the S&P 500 could deepen further. In a client report, analysts said rising oil prices could trigger a “domino effect,” where sustained high oil prices increase selling pressure in equities, spreading from the U.S. to global markets and ultimately impacting economic growth. They warn that if oil remains above $90 per barrel for an extended period, the S&P 500 could see a 10-15% correction, with spillover effects on international and emerging markets.

Inflation pressures render the 60/40 investment strategy ineffective! Wall Street insiders advocate embracing commodities. Peter Bukval, CIO of One Point BFG Wealth Partners, states that rising energy prices and inflation have weakened bonds’ protective role, causing the traditional 60/40 portfolio to fail. He notes that bond allocations in recent weeks have not provided safe haven. The energy price surge from Middle East conflicts has shifted market focus to inflation expectations as a new macro driver. For investors seeking alternatives to bonds, Bukval recommends commodities. Since 2025, a commodities bull market initially centered on precious and industrial metals has expanded to include oil, natural gas, and agriculture—benefiting from disruptions in fertilizer and ammonia supplies.

Gold faces a rare tug-of-war, direction hinging on Powell’s words! Gold investors face the most critical week of the year. The Fed will hold meetings on March 17-18. Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s comments this week could cause gold prices to swing sharply in either direction. Over the past two weeks, gold has been under pressure from a strong dollar. As of press time, spot gold hovers near $5,000. JPMorgan analysts describe the current situation as a “collision between geopolitical concerns and a strong dollar rebound.” This rare scenario makes short-term gold price prediction extremely difficult. Most analysts agree that Powell’s language and the rate decision itself are equally important. Whether he describes oil price shocks as “transitory” or “persistent” could move gold prices by hundreds of dollars within a single trading day.

Strait of Hormuz blockage impacts global aluminum market! Bahrain Aluminum (Alba) forced to cut production by 19%, aluminum prices may break $4,000. Due to the Strait of Hormuz being blocked, one of the world’s largest single smelters—Bahrain Aluminum—has begun phased shutdowns of three major production lines, reducing about 19% of its annual capacity. As a key aluminum supplier in the Middle East, logistical disruptions have turned into tangible production cuts. Goldman Sachs and other institutions warn that if the blockade persists and regional inventories deplete, aluminum prices could surge past $4,000 per ton, significantly impacting downstream manufacturing costs worldwide. As of press time, LME aluminum futures are at $3,390 per ton, having touched $3,494.50 intra-day.

Individual Stock News

NVIDIA (NVDA.US) GTC Conference kicks off! Can the AI leader maintain dominance? Investors are watching closely for new strategies in the “post-training era.” The NVIDIA GTC 2026 conference will be held from March 16-19 in San Jose, California. CEO Jensen Huang will deliver a keynote on March 16 at 2 p.m. ET. The four-day event is not only a showcase for NVIDIA’s latest advances in chips, data centers, CUDA software, AI agents, and robotics, but also a critical test of the company’s strategic direction. After delivering strong earnings but failing to boost stock prices significantly, investors are eager for reassurance: that NVIDIA’s profit-driven AI ecosystem strategy is working. eMarketer analyst Jacob Bourne expects NVIDIA to update its full-stack roadmap from Rubin to Feynman, emphasizing reasoning, autonomous AI, networking, and AI infrastructure. GF Securities believes this event could be a catalyst for NVIDIA and the entire semiconductor sector.

Meta (META.US) plans 20% layoffs: using “AI substitution” to optimize workforce and support massive capital expenditure. Reports indicate Meta is planning large-scale layoffs affecting about 20% or more of its staff, roughly 16,000 jobs. The company aims to offset high AI investments and improve efficiency through AI-assisted employees. Meta reportedly plans to spend up to $600 billion on AI capital expenditures through 2028. According to three insiders, the company has not finalized the layoff date or scale. Some say senior management has recently discussed this plan with other executives and instructed them to prepare for layoffs. Despite efforts to pivot toward an “AI-driven” company, Meta’s core model development has faced setbacks, intensifying internal restructuring pressures.

U.S. retail sector shows signs of slowdown: after Dollar Tree and Walmart, Dollar Tree (DLTR.US) issues weak guidance. Dollar Tree reported Q4 earnings: revenue up 9% to $5.5 billion, beating estimates; adjusted EPS of $2.56, 4 cents above expectations. The company said sales growth boosted results. Its low-price strategy resonates with consumers under economic pressure, attracting even higher-income shoppers. However, Dollar Tree’s outlook for 2026 is mixed—projected sales of $20.5–$20.7 billion, slightly below expectations; adjusted EPS of $6.50–$6.90, roughly in line. Similar to Dollar General, Dollar Tree forecasts a sluggish year amid macroeconomic volatility, with consumers remaining frugal.

NIO (NIU.US) Q4 revenue beats expectations; Q1 guidance signals strong growth. NIO announced Q4 results: revenue of RMB 676.2 million (about $96.7 million), down 17.4% YoY but exceeding estimates by $5.65 million. Net loss per ADS was RMB 1.1 ($0.16). Electric scooter sales totaled 172,763 units, down 23.8%. In China, sales were 158,782 units (down 12.9%), and international sales were 13,981 units (down 68.4%). Looking ahead, NIO expects Q1 2026 revenue between RMB 887 million and RMB 1.023 billion, up 30–50% YoY; full-year 2026 sales projected at 1.7–1.9 million units, up about 40–60%. As of press time, NIO’s pre-market shares are up over 4%.

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