Breaking news! The world's most dangerous man has pressed pause again, and Wall Street collectively "plays dumb" while frantically buying—whose bottom line is being traded this time?

I’m truly exhausted. Didn’t this script already play out two weeks ago? This morning, that guy on Twitter who’s been running the country with tweets spoke again, saying they’re pushing back the Iran attack deadline by five days, and talking about “very good dialogue” and “comprehensive resolution.” As soon as the news broke, wow, the scene was surreal. Crude oil prices plummeted over 13%, and Brent oil shot past $100. The US stock market went even crazier, with the Dow jumping over a thousand points intraday, and the S&P hitting its biggest gain in months. Bond yields also dropped. The entire market was like it was on steroids, as if the war would end tomorrow and the world would be at peace.

But here’s the question: are these moves really driven by institutional buying?

No way. Iran’s side didn’t even last an hour before officials came out to slap the rumors down, saying there’s no negotiations happening at all. That’s a face slap, loud and clear. But guess what? Wall Street’s elite act like they didn’t hear a thing—prices still rose, just with smaller gains. By the close, the S&P was up 1.2%, and the Dow gained over 600 points. It’s almost surreal—knowing they’re just blowing smoke, why are they still buying? Some analysts say it’s clever—they’re not buying into the “peace” narrative, they’re buying into the “President fears a stock market crash” bottom line! They think as long as the President feels sick seeing green on the screens, he won’t dare escalate the situation. Basically, the market isn’t trading the truth; it’s trading the President’s weakness.

It’s really daring to fall like this.

What’s even more interesting is that this unpredictability has become a “stabilizer” for the market. Think about it—today he says he’ll attack, tomorrow he says he won’t, making bulls hesitant to go all-in, afraid he’ll flip again; bears also hold back, worried that one tweet could wipe them out. Piper Sandler’s strategist put it well—this uncertainty actually keeps overconfident bears in check, giving the market some breathing room. Isn’t that classic “lying is shameful but effective”? As long as it prevents a market crash, who cares if it’s true or false—just throw it out there first. And now, this game feels more like a giant “guess what others are thinking” game. Westwood Capital’s partner explained it clearly: the market isn’t based on facts, but on “what I think others will do.” Even if I think he’s lying, if I believe you think it’s good news and will buy in, I have to jump in before you do! That’s pure FOMO—fear of missing out—borderline paranoia.

But if this keeps going, won’t it blow up?

The trouble now is, this three-week-long game has already dragged the global economy down badly. Key shipping lanes are blocked, oil prices soared, and inflation pressures are back. The global bond market has evaporated over $2.5 trillion, practically unrecognizable. The two-year US Treasury yield is climbing fast, almost blocking the Fed’s rate cuts. RBC analysts say Trump might have been trying to keep oil prices down, but this time, the bond market forced him to change his tune. BCA Research’s chief strategist warned that if things aren’t settled in the next 7 to 10 days, the global economy could face a “big standstill.” Today’s statement shows even he’s worried about a potential economic cliff. So, this isn’t just in his control anymore. Hirtle Callaghan’s chief investment officer fears it’s not like imposing tariffs—once the other side’s leadership is still in power, and the Strait remains closed, those who rely on the President’s “market response” might have confidence misplaced. Mizuho Bank’s strategist also laments that predicting how the White House will speak and how the market will react is now the hardest part—not just predicting the war itself. We’re facing a completely confused market, unable to tell if this is really ending or just another “wolf is coming” show.

So, brothers, don’t be fooled by today’s rally—this water is too deep. You think you’re bottom-fishing, but maybe you’re just taking the bait. You think they’re trading peace, but really they’re trading someone’s fear of K-line patterns. The market isn’t just about fundamentals and technicals anymore; now it’s also about “Twitter psychology” and “bottom-line bargaining.”

It’s exhausting.

Follow me for more real-time analysis and insights on the crypto market! $BTC $ETH $SOL