10-year Treasury yields edge higher as investors weigh renewed Iran war uncertainty

NoodlesOrTokens · 2026-03-24T09:17:16+00:00

The article discusses the rise in U.S. Treasury yields amid renewed volatility in oil markets and ongoing tensions in the Middle East. As oil prices rebound, investor uncertainty grows, impacting both energy and rates markets.

NoodlesOrTokens

2026-03-24 09:17:16

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Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) on March 19, 2026 in New York City.

Spencer Platt | Getty Images

The 10-year Treasury yield rose on Tuesday as renewed volatility in oil markets and lingering Middle East tensions kept investors on edge.

The benchmark yield was up more than 3 basis points at 4.37% as of 04:36 a.m. ET. The 30-year yield added over 2 basis points to 4.937%, while the 20-year yielded 4.968%, up about 3 basis points.

One basis point is equal to 0.01%, and yields and prices move in opposite directions.

The move higher in yields came as oil prices rebounded in Tuesday Asian trading, reversing part of the sharp losses seen in the previous session as traders reassessed developments in the Middle East conflict.

Oil had initially slumped on Monday after U.S. President Donald Trump said Washington and Tehran had held “very good and productive conversations” toward ending hostilities, adding that he had ordered a five-day pause on planned strikes against Iran’s energy infrastructure.

However, the rebound in crude prices on Tuesday suggests markets remain unconvinced that tensions will ease quickly, particularly after Iranian officials denied that any talks had taken place.

Analysts noted that conflicting headlines have reinforced uncertainty, keeping both energy and rates markets sensitive to developments. Easing tensions and lower oil prices had briefly supported Treasurys earlier in the week, but renewed uncertainty is once again weighing on sentiment.

“Headline risk remains particularly elevated as the war continues without a clear off-ramp,” BMO’s head of U.S. rates strategy, Ian Lyngen, wrote, adding that U.S. rates are likely to take their primary cue from swings in energy prices until there is greater clarity on the conflict.

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