Institution: Humanoid robots are at the dawn of large-scale commercialization

The humanoid robot industry in China has already reached a significant scale. According to the consulting firm IDC’s “Global Humanoid Robot Market Analysis,” global shipments of humanoid robots are expected to reach approximately 18,000 units by 2025, representing a year-over-year increase of about 508%, with Chinese manufacturers leading the market. Based on the rapid development of China’s robotics industry, institutions are optimistic about the sales volume of humanoid robots in China. Morgan Stanley has raised its forecast for China’s 2026 humanoid robot sales from 14,000 units to 28,000 units. It also predicts that by 2030, sales will reach 262,000 units, and by 2035, 2.6 million units.

Wanlian Securities believes that the humanoid robot industry is at the dawn of transitioning from technological breakthroughs to large-scale commercial production. On the supply side, Tesla and Yushu Technology are steadily advancing mass production; on the demand side, aging populations and rising labor costs are creating long-term driving forces. Meanwhile, with policy support and capital investment, AI large models continue to inject intelligence into robots. Humanoid robots are expected to form an emerging industry, gradually moving from B2B to B2C markets, with vast future market potential. 2026 will be a critical window for mass production validation and scenario implementation. Key areas to watch include: ① Focus on core component suppliers that have entered or are expected to enter the supply chain, especially in high-value, high-technical-barrier areas such as precision gear reducers, actuators, and sensors. ② Price is a crucial prerequisite for large-scale commercialization. Focus on cost reduction strategies, breakthroughs, and volume increases in domestic supply chains. Domestic companies are rapidly reducing the overall machine price from millions to hundreds of thousands through technological R&D and supply chain integration. With cost advantages and continuous iteration, domestic supply chains are expected to shift from substitution to leadership. Companies that master core components such as motors, gear reducers, and controllers, and can achieve low-cost, high-quality mass production, are worth attention.

Guohai Securities believes that under the wave of electrification and intelligence, domestic and international humanoid robots are continuously evolving, opening up a broader market space than automobiles. The humanoid robot industry chain will present an important investment opportunity from “0 to 1.” Robots are undergoing ongoing product iterations from the main body to component suppliers, while rapidly advancing business collaborations and scenario applications. Actively exploring large-scale production and commercial deployment, the humanoid robot industry may usher in a “ChatGPT moment.”