Everbright Futures: Significant Inventory Pressure for Silicon Wafers; Polycrystalline Silicon Continues to Underperform in the Short Term

After the Spring Festival, polysilicon prices continued the weak pattern seen before the holiday, with the price center of gravity moving further downward. As of this Friday, the 05 contract has broken below the 46,000 mark, only one step away from the prior low. Ahead of the holiday, downstream segments in crystalline silicon did not show any concentrated restocking actions. On the wafer end, high inventory pressure first led to a priority of reducing inventory; in addition, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology meeting once again released an anti-monopoly signal, and industry procurement strategies have leaned more toward caution. The signing of new polysilicon orders for February has effectively stalled, with orders pushed to resume negotiations after the holiday. Polysilicon production cuts have not been able to drive inventory drawdowns; factory inventories increased by more than 340k tons and still show an accumulation pressure trend. As polysilicon has fully priced in expectations for energy-consumption policies, going forward investors should remain alert to the risk of further pullbacks if policy expectations fail to materialize.

Looking at the spot market, according to Baichuan, the price of N-type re-melted polysilicon feedstock has fallen to 52,000 yuan per ton; the lowest-deliverable grade polysilicon feedstock price has also fallen to 52,000 yuan per ton. Spot premiums narrowed to 4,370 yuan per ton. Wafer trading has entered a one-deal-one-negotiation mode; quotations across multiple segments have stabilized amid stalemates in成交. After the holiday, market contradictions have shifted toward expectations for peak-season demand. Until demand starts and clearer signals emerge from the industry’s next round of policy cues, prices in the short term may continue to undergo weak adjustments. (Everbright Futures)