Huatai Securities: March Non-Farm Payrolls Exceed Expectations, Indicating Resilience in U.S. Job Market; Inflation Now Core Variable for Fed Monetary Policy

On April 4, Huatai Securities stated that the March non-farm payrolls exceeding expectations demonstrate resilience in the U.S. job market. However, amid escalating conflicts in the Middle East, the impact of high oil prices on inflation expectations is more critical for the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy. The ongoing conflict in the Middle East has led to a blockade in the Strait of Hormuz, creating a crude oil supply gap that has driven up oil prices and inflation expectations. Currently, inflation is the core variable for the Fed’s monetary policy. The dual targets of employment and inflation provide some leeway, allowing the Fed to avoid raising interest rates to combat inflation. Furthermore, with rising inflation expectations, even if the Fed does not raise rates, the Treasury yield curve may shift upward, effectively resulting in a tightening of monetary conditions.