Recently, I’ve been pondering a question: How regular are the bull and bear market cycles in the crypto world? I looked into historical data and discovered that there’s actually a fascinating time code hidden behind it.

Let’s first review what has happened in the past. In 2013, 2017, and 2021, these three points marked Bitcoin’s bull market peaks, roughly every four years. So, the crypto bull and bear cycles generally follow a four-year pattern. This cycle is closely related to Bitcoin’s halving events, each of which triggers a new bull run.

Specifically, bull markets usually last about 6 months to a year, while bear markets tend to last longer, possibly two years or more. When Bitcoin surged to $20,000 in 2017, everyone was shouting “To the moon,” eager to get in. But the subsequent bear market in 2018-2019 hit many hard, with prices falling from the highs. During that time, the market was clearing out bubbles, and only projects with real strength survived.

Regarding the 2025 forecast, many people predicted Bitcoin would reach $150,000 or even $200,000. Looking back now, that expectation was overly optimistic. But it also reflects a phenomenon: before each bull cycle begins, the market accumulates a large amount of capital. institutions and whales start positioning early, then attract retail investors with good news (like halving events). When a flood of new traders enters and market FOMO reaches its peak, it’s often a sign that the bull market is nearing its end.

Now it’s 2026, and we’ve gone through a complete bull and bear cycle. Reviewing this cycle—from the deep bear market starting in 2023, to the early bull phase in 2024, and the mid-bull in 2025—the market rhythm largely aligns with historical patterns. Halving events have indeed become good excuses for price rallies, and the Federal Reserve’s liquidity injections have also boosted risk assets.

For investors, understanding the regularity of bull and bear cycles is crucial. Don’t get caught up in emotions at the top of a bull market, and don’t give up entirely during despairing bear markets. Cycles are normal; the key is to stay rational, choose projects with real value, and avoid blindly following the crowd. Each cycle acts as a filter—strong projects get stronger, while bubbles eventually burst.

As blockchain technology develops, these cycles may become more complex, influenced by policies, economic conditions, and technological progress. But one thing remains unchanged: time is the best witness. Rationality and patience are always the best weapons for survival in the crypto space. Those who can stay clear-headed through bull and bear cycles will ultimately succeed in this long-term game.