每周编辑精选 Weekly Editor's Picks（0328-0403）

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The information flow is too fast—deep-dive analysis articles can easily get swallowed by the latest hot topics. The “Weekly Editors’ Picks” section pulls out pieces with real judgment value from massive streams of information, helping you filter out noise, keep what matters, and bring insight.

Macroeconomic backdrop

A global economic downturn—has it quietly already begun?

The author redefines a downturn from an “economic outcome” into a “strategic condition.” It doesn’t just compress growth and employment—it also weakens a country’s negotiating power, ability to attract capital, and external credibility, causing it to lose initiative in global competition. That’s why governments around the world are using fiscal, diplomatic, and even geopolitical tools to replace monetary instruments. In essence, they’re buying time for growth slowdown and trying to avoid being forced into negotiations during a recession.

Within this framework, the market’s core is no longer the interest-rate path itself—it’s “who can break free from constraints, and who is still trapped in them.”

That difference first shows up in the FX and interest-rate markets, and then propagates into asset prices and capital flows. When valuations continue to rise even as growth slows, the reason may not be improving fundamentals, but instead policy expectations that “a recession won’t be allowed to happen.”

Warren Buffett’s first visit after stepping down: This is not a time to buy the dip—nuclear weapons will be used sooner or later

Apple sold early, but it’s not buying now either.

Don’t buy the dip on U.S. stocks at this time.

The most dangerous scenario is that the person holding the nuclear button is either about to die themselves, or is facing a massive humiliation. In such a situation, no one can predict what decision one person will make. In the next 100 years—or perhaps 200—nuclear weapons may be used.

$700B heading into AI: Americans tasted the pain of inflation first

The more you invest in AI, the higher inflation is, the farther away rate cuts are, and the higher financing costs get—but investment is still accelerating.

The arms race among big tech companies can’t be stopped. One data center can equal the total electricity use of an entire state.

$700B in U.S. dollars is pouring into AI infrastructure. Is this money the cause of inflation, or the prelude to a productivity revolution? It depends on a question that no one can yet answer: will the models running inside these data centers actually make the economy more efficient?

A conversation with Pantera’s founder: Bitcoin has reached escape velocity—traditional assets are being left behind

It’s not that gold set a new high—it’s that paper money is setting an all-time low.

The average age of first-time homebuyers in the U.S. has shifted from 28 to 40.

We’re facing a generational turning point where money and the nation separate. Stablecoins are very likely to take half of bank deposits within the next decade. Bitcoin has already reached escape velocity.

Investing & Entrepreneurship

Interviewing 10 Dubai workers: Someone was required to sign a “life-and-death contract”

In reality, Dubai is already a battlefield.

Some Web3 workers have escaped, some have held their ground, and others have signed life-and-death contracts (company disclaimers) and returned to Dubai—hoping to bet on high professional payoffs amid high risk.

The “receding tide” token model of ve: Why three major protocols proactively gave up their former ace?

The reason isn’t a theoretical error—it’s failure at the execution layer: low participation rates, governance captured, emissions flowing into unprofitable pools, and token prices falling hard even as usage grows.

Meanwhile, Curve’s veCRV and Aerodrome’s ve(3,3) are still developing healthily. But this model only works where the emissions it incentivizes can create real economic demand for liquidity.

At the same time, other protocols are choosing alternatives that support income via buybacks, deflationary supply mechanisms, or liquidity governance tokens—replacing the ve token model.

Tiger Research: Analysis of the current state of retail investors across Asia’s nine biggest markets

Tiger Research covers the nine largest markets in Asia by user volume, analyzing the barriers for retail investors to enter and the strategies exchanges use to respond. Core findings: in markets like South Korea, Japan, and Vietnam, there are structural differences in entry barriers, and the key variable for whether an exchange’s localization strategy can work is whether it can be executed successfully. This has reference value for projects looking to expand from targeting into Southeast Asia.

Also recommended: “Odaily Interview with SharpLink: Ethereum’s ‘productive capitalists’.”

Web3 & AI

What exactly is an AI Agent doing? Full解析 of Claude Code’s 500k lines of leaked code

For AI products, the competitive moat may not be at the model layer, but at the engineering layer.

For AI products, model inference costs may not be the most expensive layer—cache management failures are.

Followed AI tools for a year—zero output: A reflection from a serial entrepreneur

Don’t treat “trying new tools” as “building something yourself.” When everyone can use the same models, the only moat left is taste and depth—and taste can only be earned through real outcomes and sustained focus.

Tiger Research: What AI services are crypto companies providing?

Adoption motivations differ across different sub-sectors. Exchanges aim to prevent user churn. Security firms aim to fill audit blind spots. Payment infrastructure targets the emerging agent economy.

FOMO and competitive pressure in artificial intelligence are accelerating adoption—far beyond actual needs. Both real demand and competitive anxiety are at work.

Distinguishing adoption that creates value from adoption that just puts a label on something is the key question.

Prediction Markets

Why is the $1 return rate only 43%, yet 87% of Polymarket players are losing money?

“Out-of-consensus preferences” are one of the most expensive mistakes in prediction markets. Traders often systematically overestimate low-probability events and pay too high a price for contracts that look “cheap.”

Traders who truly outperform prediction markets over the long term aren’t necessarily the people with “the most accurate judgment,” but those who adjust their views the fastest and most reasonably when new evidence appears.

Bayesian methods essentially provide a way to measure this “adjustment speed.”

Don’t bet based on hunches: AI is picking up “free money” on Polymarket

The article introduces a method to identify arbitrage opportunities on Polymarket and execute them systematically: use Perplexity to do research and pinpoint discrepancies between data and market pricing; use Claude to build the trading logic, control risk, and automatically execute; and finally complete trades and realize profits on Polymarket.

For ordinary participants, a more realistic path is to first find certainty through research, then amplify returns with a system.

Also recommended: “Polymarket Smart Money Panorama: 26 long-term trackable addresses (broken down by track).”

CeFi & DeFi

Stripe up, PayPal down: A new king is crowned in payments

Stripe’s view is straightforward: once AI Agents start making purchase decisions on behalf of humans, whoever controls the payment rails will be the first to grasp the core lifeline of the AI economy. Stripe’s forward-looking vision keeps it ahead of the entire payments industry.

PayPal, meanwhile, is stumbling. PayPal’s business model lives on “fees on fund flows,” while stablecoins’ business model depends on “holding assets to earn interest from government bonds.” There is a natural conflict between these two logics. Every time PayPal promotes PYUSD stablecoin payments, to some extent it’s actually eroding its own traditional fee income. In the current PayPal business framework, it’s hard to solve this problem.

BTC is barely holding on—why is HYPE surging 20% against the trend?

The RWA trading market of Hyperliquild powered by HIP-3 provides new support for value creation.

A comprehensive deep dive into Hyperliquid HIP-4: Routing through prediction markets and options trading to swallow traditional finance

The market overall is in a downward trend, yet HYPE shows remarkably strong stability. The key reason is undoubtedly Hyperliquid’s solid fundamentals: focus on generating revenue and continually using profits for HYPE buybacks.

HIP-3 (the perpetual contract market deployed by builders) has already shown a clear pattern: when infrastructure is permissionless and has been validated by the market, liquidity tends to cluster around stronger teams, regardless of whether they receive extra ecosystem support.

The same logic will apply to HIP-4 as well. HIP-4 focuses on “outcome trading,” bringing prediction markets and certain specific types of options into Hyperliquid—products that can produce non-linear payoff outcomes while carrying no liquidation risk.

In the past, no protocol was good enough to truly bring sustainable options trading into the crypto world. Hyperliquid has done it—and the way it operates is different from every other platform. This platform has no investors and isn’t influenced by any external pressure, so Jeff can freely decide what the company should do. In that sense, Hyperliquid is a lot like Telegram: it doesn’t need to spend much money on marketing—the key is the belief itself. If the product is good enough, people will come to use it sooner or later.

Hyperliquid has a chance to capture the entire crypto options market.

Winners will build real-world products, embedding crypto as the underlying implementation detail. Losers will keep holding onto the old narrative of “crypto for crypto,” and expect the whole world to adjust itself to them.

Airdrop opportunities & interaction guide

Hot interaction collection | Abstract new badge quest; Noise Beta version is live (April 2)

Meme

Making A7 per month in the post-00s era—trapped in three screens

Odaily interviews Meme P up-and-comer still getting big results in 2026, along with a past Meme diamond-hand, to learn their ways of making money and their work-life.

Bitcoin

Lose $19k for every mined coin—Bitcoin mining companies collectively defect to AI

CoinShares’ latest mining report shows that the weighted average cost for listed miners to mine one Bitcoin has risen to about $80k, while BTC’s current price is $68,000–$70k—meaning a loss of $19k per mined coin.

The Bitcoin mining industry is undergoing the most fundamental transformation since its founding. The clearest signal isn’t computing power or difficulty adjustments—it’s the balance sheet, and the way out is a comprehensive pivot to AI infrastructure.

When Bitcoin mining rigs fly into space

For Bitcoin miners currently operating, space mining may not yet pose a real competitive threat in the short term. But it’s also true that a large number of startups are continuously trying—showing that the massive cost-reduction opportunity it represents remains very attractive, with plenty of room for imagination. This also indirectly reflects that the whole industry is facing structural cost pressure.

The logic of space mining is the ultimate extrapolation of the trend above: if cheap electricity on the ground will eventually get squeezed due to demand competition, then go to the place with the most abundant energy—space, or the universe.

Security

Google’s major breakthrough in quantum computing—crypto may need to “change locks” early

Google’s quantum research team led by top quantum circuit experts including Craig Gidney (Google Quantum AI) has made two moves in succession.

First, on March 25, Google officially proposed a timeline for migrating to post-quantum cryptography (PQC), targeting 2029. Second, on March 31, Google Quantum AI specifically published a research report aimed at the crypto industry, stating plainly that based on the latest research results, the resources required for future quantum computers to break the elliptic curve cryptography protecting cryptocurrencies will be far less than what was previously believed.

The industry’s past estimates of timelines need to be revised. Google set its migration target to 2029, and Google Quantum AI also mentions in the article that it is working with institutions such as Coinbase, the Stanford Blockchain Research Institute, and the Ethereum Foundation to responsibly advance according to the 2029 timeline.

For every crypto project, this means a brand-new security dividing line. Whoever can recognize the problem earlier, push upgrades, and complete the “lock change” will have a better chance of preserving its security boundaries into the next era.

Also recommended: “Odaily interview with Yu Xian (余弦): Anthropic’s nuclear-bomb-level new model leak—how does it affect crypto security offense and defense?”

Weekly hot topic crash course

Policy & macro markets

U.S. lawmakers’ offices plan to release a draft stablecoin yield terms next week; the industry is preparing counter-proposals;

CFTC clarifies its top 5 enforcement priorities: “crack down” on insider trading in prediction markets and market manipulation;

Views & statements

Trump: Negotiations have made major progress; Trump threatens to strike Iran’s energy facilities—oil prices keep rising and U.S. stock index futures fall; Iran’s president: We’re prepared to end the war, but we hope to receive guarantees; Iran will charge transit fees to ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz;

Trump: Bitcoin has an important position—America needs to stay ahead;

10x: The “safe-haven” myth of Bitcoin fails under the U.S.-Iran conflict; ETF capital reshapes the pricing logic;

Trader Eugene: Exited after cutting losses; plans to reduce trading frequency;

Institutions, big companies, and top projects

SpaceX may go public in June, with an IPO target valuation of over $2 trillion, planning to raise up to $75 billion; OpenAI completes a $122 billion financing round, reaching a valuation of $852 billion;

Bitfarms plans to clear all Bitcoin on its balance sheet and fully pivot to AI infrastructure;

Aster adjusts its tokenomics structure and sharply reduces monthly unlock size;

edgeX airdrop Waterloo;

MagicEden: Wallet to be delisted tomorrow and enter export-only mode;

Dmail Network will gradually shut down starting May 15; users need to export their emails before then;

Security

Drift Protocol attacked, losses at least $200 million (detailed breakdown).

Sent through the “Weekly Editors’ Picks” series. See you next time~