4.3 Final Review: Rest and Recuperate, Focus on Three Key Areas After the Holiday

1. Cycle positioning: Trading is bleak before the holiday; crowding and backstabbing within the group drives in-house competition; the limit-down wave is here

Core judgment: Today’s market—on the last trading day before the holiday—went into broad-based weakness, with more than 4,000 stocks going flat. With repairs in the external market as the backdrop, Big A still moved independently to the downside, as trading volume shrank to 1.6T, and market participation was bleak. Pharmaceuticals (Jin Ya o Pharmaceutical) and optical communications (Yangfei Optical Fiber) formed a companion-versus-enemy dynamic: they互卡 intraday, but neither managed to kill the other. The number of limit-down stocks surged; the relay-style approach failed across the board. We wait for a decisive sweep after the holiday.

The cycle state has evolved from a “pullback confirmation + rotation between pharmaceuticals and batteries/electronics” to a “sweep before the holiday + in-group competition.” Jin Yao Pharmaceutical upgraded to a six-board streak and became the highest board heading into the holiday. Chongyao Holding, Huiyuan Communications, and Xinneng Taishan also advanced to the second board. The first board mainly came from computing power, optical communications, and pharmaceuticals, but the sector effect was extremely weak.

Key contradictions confirmed:

1. Trading is bleak before the holiday: Trading volume shrank to 1.6T; cash-out day funds didn’t return, and participation is quiet.

2. Group-think in-fighting and互卡: Pharmaceuticals and optical communications formed a companion-versus-enemy relationship. They互卡 intraday (China Pharmaceutical炸板 while Yangfei soared higher, then Yangfei fell back and China Pharmaceutical quickly sealed again), but neither managed to wipe the other out.

3. Limit-down wave arrives: The number of limit-downs skyrocketed; the relay model failed completely; we wait for a decisive sweep after the holiday.

4. “Youzi” premium shows up: “Youzi” plays such as Tongda Shares (Tu Wenbin) and Xinneng Taishan (Foshan) weakened-to-strong to provide a premium, but the late-stage relay got trapped.

2. Call auction phase: CNOOC Capital’s largest single+largest single bait-for-boats; trading is bleak before the holiday

Today’s call auction is the watershed between a pre-holiday sweep and in-group in-fighting.

1. CNOOC Capital’s largest single adding on top: RMB settlement news spurred stimulus; in the auction it kept adding orders all the way to 3 billion, but the quant tape didn’t recognize the move, and the stock exploded intraday. Conclusion: adding-on was bait-for-boats; cross-border payments can’t be chased.

2. Beiken Energy’s third-largest order: Oil futures jumped to new highs and closed at a high, but Beiken wasn’t the largest order; there was no desire to set up positions with capital. Conclusion: abandon the oil-and-gas direction.

3. Jin Ya o Pharmaceutical opens near the limit-up: An industrial-chain model—forcing a stubborn, hard-head play. Sector fermentation wasn’t strong; it was filled with negative catalysts; many people didn’t dare to buy in the call auction. Conclusion: highest board before the holiday, but the sector fermentation isn’t good.

4. Chongyao Holding, Huiyuan Communications, and Xinneng Taishan advance to second board: Chongyao imitates Hua Dian; Huiyuan adds on in the auction; optical communications picks up as a tool-user; Xinneng Taishan turns weak to strong.

5. No big single in tech category: It’s all risk-avoidance; it’s nauseating for the overall market.

3. Market projection: Pharmaceuticals and optical communications互卡; the limit-down wave arrives

Jin Ya o secures instant closure; pharmaceuticals rotate back

Jin Ya o Pharmaceutical opened near the limit-up and 秒封 to six boards. China Pharmaceutical, Chongyao Holding, and others followed. But sector fermentation wasn’t strong; after the mid-late and low-tier names jumped higher, they fell back.

Huiyuan adds on; optical communications rotates back

Huiyuan Communications added on in the auction; Yangfei Optical Fiber gapped up. Optical communications quickly rotated back. Institutions drove up Hengtong Optical and Fiber, and Fujing Technology, etc. But with small-cap first-board momentum lacking, it became a fake breakout “main rise.”

Pharmaceuticals and optical communications互卡, companion-versus-enemy

China Pharmaceutical’s limit-up ignited patriotism; the more Yangfei Optical Fiber kept rising, the more it went. When Yangfei was about to hit the limit-up, China Pharmaceutical炸板 and innovative drugs pulled back. When Yangfei fell back to a peer-top push (doing对子顶), China Pharmaceutical quickly sealed again. They互卡 but neither killed the other; a companion-versus-enemy relationship was established.

Tongda Shares turns weak to strong but gets trapped; “youzi” late-stage relay is hard

Tongda Shares抢到了 the auction by bidding for a 5.51% gap-up at the end; after the open it秒板, then got realized by the quant tape. Jin Ya o秒封; the mid-tier blocked the knife. Those who boarded yesterday got a premium; today, after the fact, they got trapped.

Limit-down wave arrives; relay fails across the board

The number of limit-downs surged; the relay model failed completely. The broader market opened higher and then weakened; volume shrank to 1.6T; it was a sweep before the holiday.

4. Structural analysis: Sweep before the holiday; in-group competition; waiting for clearing

5. Jin Ya o Pharmaceutical: Advances to six boards; highest board before the holiday

Core of innovative drugs; industrial chain; opens near the limit-up and秒封. Sector fermentation isn’t good, so any catch-up rallies can’t supply enough intensity for the leader. Rating: highest board before the holiday; after the holiday, watch whether it can get past 7.

2. Pharmaceuticals and optical communications: Companion-versus-enemy;互卡 without getting killed

· Pharmaceuticals: Jin Ya o Pharmaceutical (six boards), Chongyao Holding (two boards), China Pharmaceutical (first board)

· Optical communications: Huiyuan Communications (two boards), Xinneng Taishan (two boards), Yangfei Optical Fiber (trend)

· Rating: companion-versus-enemy; if one side is completely dead, the other side also won’t be good.

3. Second-board ladder: Jin Ya o threads through nodes and follows

Chongyao Holding (imitating Huadian), Huiyuan Communications (tool-user for optical communications), Xinneng Taishan (fiber; Foshan weak-to-strong). Rating: follow through the node; if Jin Ya o is strong, there’s a premium.

4. “Youzi” premium shows up

Tongda Shares (Tu Wenbin): boarded yesterday with a premium; today it turned weak to strong and got trapped. Xinneng Taishan (Foshan): weak-to-strong and upgraded. Rating: “youzi” starts building a winning-effect.

5. Elimination tier: Limit-down wave arrives; relay fails across the board

· Mid-tier stocks: Tongda Shares, Xin Zhonggang, Xinghui HuanCai—third-to-fourth in all three got smashed; the mid-tier served as the knife-block.

· Tech category: gap up then fade; institutions use good news to distribute.

· Huadian Liao Neng, Guangxi Energy: holding everyone back.

5. Analysis of consecutive-board structure

· Six boards (1 stock): Jin Ya o Pharmaceutical. Innovative drugs; opens near the limit-up and秒封; highest board before the holiday.

· Two boards (3 stocks): Chongyao Holding (innovative drugs), Huiyuan Communications (optical communications), Xinneng Taishan (fiber)

· First boards: Computing power (Zhong An Ke, Yunsai Zh lian), optical communications (Shijia Technology, Yashi Optical Electronics), pharmaceuticals (China Pharmaceutical), chemicals (SulI Shares), etc.

6. In-depth reading of key signals

7. CNOOC Capital 3 billion limit-up order blows the board: adding-on as bait-for-boats; cross-border payments can’t be chased.

8. Beiken Energy isn’t the largest order: oil futures surged to new highs, but capital had no desire to set positions.

9. Jin Ya o Pharmaceutical opens near limit-up and秒封: industrial chain; highest board before the holiday, but the sector fermentation isn’t good.

10. China Pharmaceutical and Yangfei Optical Fiber互卡: pharmaceuticals and optical communications as companion-versus-enemy;互卡 without getting killed.

11. Yangfei Optical Fiber drops after a peer-top push: optical communications trend stock—watch for risk signals from peer-top pushing.

12. Tongda Shares turns weak to strong but gets trapped: late-stage relay for “youzi” is hard.

13. Number of limit-downs surges: relay model fails completely.

14. Volume shrinks to 1.6T: trading before the holiday is bleak.

7. Post-holiday (4/7) core observations and strategy

Current positioning: sweep before the holiday + in-group in-fighting + limit-down wave. The core after the holiday is to see whether Jin Ya o Pharmaceutical can get past 7, whether Huiyuan Communications can continue the strength of optical communications, and whether Xinghui HuanCai can use upside elasticity to break the deadlock.

S级 (the only elastic breakout game across the whole market)

1. Xinghui HuanCai (300783)

Status: It tried for a board but didn’t succeed; however, it’s the 20cm “3-to-4” play, and with the logic of rising oil prices + derivatives from chemicals, it’s the key observation point for an elastic breakout after the holiday.

Buy point: If the call auction on 4/7 can open flat or slightly higher, and it’s supported by oil futures (if no major selloff during the holiday), then bet on a reversal back to 4.3 with an upper-wick. If it locks the board, it will directly drag down Jin Ya o and kick off a 300 elastic行情.

Risk: heavily dependent on the repair of the oil-and-gas sector.

A级 (board position and force combined)

2. Huiyuan Communications (2-to-3)

Status: Pioneer of optical communications; the only high-stand mapping of the big rise in US optical communications stocks; also backed by strong controlling intent shown by the auction add-on orders.

Buy point: On 4/7 it must continue to maintain the firmness of a one-word board, or strong turnover and re-close. It’s the little brother of Yangfei Optical Fiber. As long as Yangfei doesn’t fall, it’s the most stable tech relay on the main board.

3. Jin Ya o Pharmaceutical (6-to-7)

Status: the highest board in the whole market; the “continuous order” industrial-chain play; turning into a defensive safe-haven.

Buy point: If on 4/7, after it opens, there is turnover in the T-shape on the board that doesn’t roll over, you can cautiously gamble on冲击7. If it can’t seal within the first 5 minutes after the open, give up directly.

Watch out: Meiji demons/illusion tricks.

B级 (youzi premium and reversal-arbitrage)

4. Xinneng Taishan (2-to-3)

Status: Yesterday, Foshan heavy position ~230 million hard held it up. It successfully crossed over from power to fiber; market turnover relay produced a standard weak-to-strong.

Buy point: If the 4/7 auction can withstand sell pressure without sinking, you can gamble that it becomes the next generation “youzi” group-bidet leader.

5. Chongyao Holding (2-to-3)

Status: Perfect follow-up expansion for Jin Ya o. After Beida Pharma steps aside, it’s currently the purest positional follower on the pharmaceuticals line.

Buy point: Keep a tight watch on Jin Ya o. If Jin Ya o locks the board, the certainty that Chongyao goes from 2 to 3 is extremely high.

C级 (observe and avoid traps)

· Tongda Shares: Tu Wenbin locks the position and explodes the head. After the holiday, if it can’t do a reversal-to-cover, the negative feedback from seats will be very heavy. Only watch signals—don’t trade based on them.

· CNOOC Capital: 3 billion limit-up order blows the board. If there’s a “nuclear button” after the holiday, it will ripple across all the “China character”/state-owned names.

After-holiday core strategy: Don’t catch yourself without seeing the rabbit

1. Auction to set direction:

   · If Huiyuan Communications gets a big single one-word continuation → focus on tech/optical communications rotation back

   · If Jin Ya o Pharmaceutical gets a big single one-word continuation → focus on pharmaceuticals/defensive group positioning

   · If Xinghui HuanCai opens flat or slightly higher → focus on 300 elasticity arbitrage

2. Exclude interference: Any ticker where after 4.3 the board is blown and the 4.7 auction can’t return above flat, is judged as logic falsified.

3. Sentiment indicator: Watch whether Xinghui HuanCai can drive 300 pharmaceuticals. If it can, prioritize elasticity bets.

4. Control position sizing: If the market still shrinks volume, only do the certainty opportunities in S级 andA级.

New “character-stock” observations

· 6-to-7: Jin Ya o Pharmaceutical

· 2-to-3: Huiyuan Communications, Xinneng Taishan

· 1-to-2: China Pharmaceutical, SulI Shares, Shijia Technology

8. Mindset/mental rules: After the holiday, don’t act before you see the rabbit

Three realities to accept:

1. Trading before the holiday was bleak—volume shrank to 160 billion; staying in cash dodged the big drop.

2. Limit-down wave arrives—relay model fails across the board.

3. After the holiday is the life-and-death positioning battle between defensive leader Jin Ya o and the rotation back into tech/elasticity.

Three opportunities worth betting on:

1. Xinghui HuanCai opens flat or slightly higher—bet on an elastic breakout.

2. Huiyuan Communications continues with a one-word strong board—follow optical communications.

3. Jin Ya o has turnover on the board—bet on getting past 7.

Three warning signals worth watching:

1. Jin Ya o breaks the board with no follow-through.

2. Huiyuan Communications underperforms expectations.

3. CNOOC Capital hits the nuclear button.

Final words:

Brothers, during Qingming the “green rescue” was taken by the holiday—4,000 stocks were wiped out. In the comment section, give a 1 for anyone who stayed in cash before the holiday and dodged the big drop. Let me see who listened!

After the holiday is the life-and-death positioning battle between defensive leader Jin Ya o topping the charts and the rotation back into tech/elasticity. Xinghui HuanCai is the only hope for an elastic breakout; Huiyuan Communications is the most stable tech relay on the main board; Jin Ya o Pharmaceutical is the gamble of the highest board in the whole market.

After the holiday, do you favor the pharmaceuticals group run or the tech rotation back? Meiji specifically names Jin Ya o—do you think it can get past 7?

Don’t catch yourself without seeing the rabbit. If the market volume keeps shrinking, only trade the certainty opportunities in S级 andA级.

Track Xinghui elasticity closely, watch Huiyuan’s firmness, and if Jin Ya o gets past 7, pharmaceuticals will rotate back.