Non-farm payrolls are at 178k, but the market doesn't know which way to go anymore.

Expected only 60k, but it actually ran up to 178k. With employment this good, what reason does the Federal Reserve have to cut rates? In theory, the US dollar should rise and risk assets should fall. But the market isn’t moving like that.

BTC wavered just above 66,000, while ETH didn’t budge at 2,050. The wave of longs that priced in a rate cut ahead of the jobs report should have already exited. But prices haven’t crashed, which suggests the shorts also don’t want to smash it lower from this level.

The reasons to stand aside are:

1. The employment data is too contradictory—on one side, companies can’t find workers; on the other, the Fed says inflation is still high.
2. The fighting in the Middle East is still ongoing, and oil prices are still elevated.
3. Powell will step down in May; the new chairman’s direction is unclear.
4. At this level, BTC can’t really push higher or break down—65,000 is the annual support, and 70,000 is the resistance.

Today is the weekend, and the CME is closed, so liquidity is low to begin with. The jobs report results have been out for about 48 hours, and the market is still digesting them.

Standing aside is the right call. In this kind of situation, don’t make a move—wait until the direction becomes clear. If 65,000 holds, there will be a rebound; if it doesn’t, it will drop. Don’t guess.