Polymarket: The probability that the "Claude Mythos Model" will be released before April 30 has dropped to 28%.

Odaily Seer’s oracle channel monitoring shows that on Polymarket, the probability of “Claude Mythos model to be released in April” has fallen sharply to 28%, down 26% over the past 7 days. The amount staked is around $42k. The probability of “Claude Mythos model to be released in June” is temporarily reported at 53%, with the amount staked at around $11.6k. The event contract rules are: If Anthropic releases “Claude Mythos” or confirms that it is the same model mentioned in the aforementioned leak, and the model is made available to the public on the specified date (US Eastern Time), then this market will resolve to “Yes.” Otherwise, this market will ultimately resolve to “No.” Eligible models must be named “Claude Mythos” (for example, Claude Mythos 1, Claude Mythos 5, Claude Mythos X, all count), or confirm the same model as mentioned by Anthropic in the leak, or be confirmed by consensus as reported by credible sources. Models labeled as Claude Haiku, Sonnet, and Opus 4.7/5.0 or similar products do not count toward the determination of this market unless it is confirmed that they are the same model mentioned in the leak. For the market to ultimately resolve to “Yes,” the eligible models (as defined above) must be launched and publicly available, including via open testing or open rolling waitlist with registration. Closed testing or any form of private access does not satisfy the corresponding conditions.

Earlier news: Anthropic announced it would prohibit users from subscribing to “free-riding” (whitepicking). OpenClaw’s use of Claude requires pay-as-you-go billing or using an API.

Odaily Seer’s oracle channel continues to monitor prediction markets, and before pricing, sees the changes.