Chang'an Futures Liu Na: The lower support is strong; consider a bullish outlook for rubber.

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Natural Rubber and 20# Rubber Comment:

Due to the turbulence in the Middle East situation, crude oil has been swinging significantly, which has made the overall chemical sector relatively strong. For rubber-related products, synthetic rubber is stronger than natural rubber. However, please note that synthetic rubber has had a larger price increase: the BR05 contract’s March rise reached 36%. In the short term, it may not be advisable to chase the rally. This time, natural rubber and 20# rubber did not follow crude oil’s sharp surge; they are still mainly driven by fundamentals. The RU05 contract’s March settled down 4.36%. From late March to now, the RU05 contract has rebounded modestly; today, its intraday maximum gain was over 1.5%, and the gain eased slightly in the afternoon. The March NR05 contract settled down 1.8%. Since late March, the rebound strength has been stronger than that of RU05. The technical-to-the-bearish outlook for natural rubber and 20# rubber has already changed.

From the supply side of rubber, according to data from Wind, in February, the Rubber Manufacturers Association of the Southeast Asia (ANRPC) rubber production was 726.8 thousand tons. Both the month-on-month and year-on-year figures declined. In the first two months, cumulative production fell slightly. The main production areas in Southeast Asia have entered a period of gradually slowing output release. In China, cutting started in mid to late March, and earlier-month production was relatively low: in March, production did not exceed 20 thousand tons, while production in April is around 50 thousand tons. At present, there is relatively less pressure on rubber supply.

As for inventories: according to data from SteelHome (Ganglian), in the week of March 27, Qingdao dry rubber stocks were 691.3k tons, higher than 685.5k tons from the prior week. Social inventories were 1.35 million tons, lower than 1.3608 million tons from the prior week. After the Lantern Festival (Yuanxiao Festival), as tire factories resumed large-scale operations, social inventories continued to decline. Although Qingdao dry rubber stocks saw some fluctuations, the overall inventory build-up situation has improved.

From the demand side, according to Wind data, in February, the Rubber Manufacturers Association of the Southeast Asia (ANRPC) rubber consumption was 773 thousand tons, with both month-on-month and year-on-year declines. Among them, consumption was down 3.88% compared with the same period last year. Over the first two months, total consumption was slightly lower than last year. Judging from downstream operating rates, for the week of April 2, the operating rate for full-steel tires was 70.71%, and for half-steel tires it was 77.66%. Both the full-steel and half-steel tire operating rates fell versus the previous week, but after the Lantern Festival, tire operating rates rebounded significantly. In particular, the operating rate of full-steel tires has been at a high level for the same period from 2020 to the present.

Overall, it appears that the current situation of rubber inventories has improved. Combined with relatively low production pressure on the supply side, rubber support on the downside is fairly strong. In the next phase, marginal improvement in demand will provide a boost to natural rubber and 20# rubber. It is suggested that natural rubber and 20# rubber be treated with a low-price-buy / slightly bullish mindset. Risk factors: other unexpected events such as a sharp drop in crude oil.

Chang’an Futures: Liu Na

F3070799　　Z0015395　　April 3, 2026

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责任编辑：李铁民