massive earnings day tmrw - google, amazon, microsoft, meta and apple are spending $600B+ on AI this year, tmrw we find out if its worth it,

some indicators over the last 7 days:
- openai is back. codex isn't good, its fucking great and developers are switching over.
- consensus: gpt 5.5 > opus 4.7
- "openai missed revenue target" this is a LAGGING indicator. codex wasn't good back then, gpt 5.4 wasn't competitive. now they're both #1
- microsoft came out winning in the openai break-up. they take 20% of openai rev, can support competitors on azure and don't have to pay openai azure rev. they also own 27% of openai
- amazon in undergoing a narrative shift, people are waking up to the fact they're #1 distributor of models (i expect to see this reflected tmrw)
- google investing up to $40B in anthropic + the money comes back to them in compute rev = great.
- meta's going to unwind the manus deal which might disrupt their ai advertising lead over google (but that won't show till q2)
my guess: ai cloud revenue is going to CRUSH. amazon, google and microsoft beat expectations.
mythos and spud have made it clear more (a lot more) compute is needed to build better models.