So here's what went down today - stocks actually staged a solid market rebound after getting hammered this morning when the US and Israel launched those joint military operations on Iran. Pretty wild volatility to start the day.

The S&P 500 managed to close up 0.07% despite the chaos, while the Nasdaq climbed 0.44%. The Dow was basically flat at -0.06%. What's interesting is how quickly things reversed. Initially everything sold off hard, but once the dip buyers came in and we got that better-than-expected ISM manufacturing data (52.4 vs expectations of 51.5), the market rebound accelerated.

The geopolitical situation is obviously the elephant in the room. Trump said combat operations could drag on for weeks, and Iran's not exactly interested in negotiations. But here's the thing - this crisis is creating some pretty clear winners and losers in the market.

Defense stocks are absolutely crushing it. Aerovironment jumped over 12%, Northrop Grumman and RTX both up more than 4%. The logic is straightforward - higher defense spending prospects. Energy stocks are also ripping, with oil hitting an 8.25-month high and soaring over 65%. Tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz basically halted after Iran attacked three tankers, which is a big deal since that strait handles about a fifth of global oil supply. Marathon Petroleum, ConocoPhillips, Devon Energy all up over 3%.

On the flip side, chipmakers got crushed today. Seagate down over 5%, AMD and Western Digital both down over 3%. Airline stocks also took it on the chin - American Airlines down nearly 4.5%, United down over 3%. Higher oil means higher jet fuel costs eating into margins. Cruise lines got hammered too, with Norwegian Cruise Line forecasting weaker-than-expected earnings.

Here's what caught my eye though - Bitcoin and crypto-related stocks are having a monster day. BTC is up over 6% and sitting around $75.99K. MicroStrategy up 7%, Marathon Digital up 8%, Galaxy Digital up 5%, even Coinbase up 4%. This market rebound in crypto seems to be benefiting from the broader risk-on sentiment once stocks stabilized.

The bond market's doing its typical flight-to-safety dance. Yields initially fell but then climbed back as inflation concerns kicked in - that ISM prices paid index jumped to a 3.5-year high at 70.5. The 10-year yield is now at 4.04%, up 10 basis points. The Fed's basically off the table for rate cuts near-term with markets pricing in only a 2% chance of a cut at the March meeting.

Earnings season is winding down with over 90% of S&P 500 companies reported. The good news is 74% of them beat expectations, and Q4 earnings growth is tracking at 8.4% year-over-year. Even excluding the Magnificent Seven, we're seeing 4.6% growth. That's been helping support this market rebound.

Week ahead looks busy - ADP employment data Wednesday, ISM services Thursday, jobless claims also Thursday, and the big nonfarm payrolls report Friday. Expectations are pretty modest (60K jobs expected for February), which might be why the market's been able to hold onto these gains despite the geopolitical uncertainty. If anything, softer employment data could actually help the market rebound narrative by reducing inflation pressure and keeping the Fed patient.