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Fidelity Demonstrates Strong Signal of Solana's Reliability 516% with One

Solana
SOLUSD
has decreased approximately 71% from its all-time high in 2025. Amid this price decline, holders are experiencing significant unrealized losses, according to Fidelity Digital Assets' Q2 2026 Signal Report.

This decline is reflected in the Net Unrealized Profit/Loss metric (NUPL), which has now dropped to -0,67. This level is typically associated with a median one-year return of 516%, although Fidelity emphasizes that this pattern may not recur.

Fidelity Highlights Bullish Signal for Solana, Warns Pattern May Not Repeat

In Q1 2026, Solana's NUPL score plummeted by 148%, from -0,27 to -0,67 as the price fell 33%. This figure falls deep into the zone referred to by Fidelity as “Capitulation”.

“There are early signs of stabilization. The NUPL score has risen 29% from the February low of -0,94, which could be a capitulation point for investors unwilling to hold losses. However, the risk of further decline remains, and a new bottom formation is still possible,” the report states.

The company notes that when NUPL SOL touched -0,67, the median one-year return was 516%. Meanwhile, the compound annual growth rate over three years at this level is 62%.

Nevertheless, Fidelity warns that this forward return data is based on only 10 historical observations for one year, and just 6 for three years. This highlights Solana’s still short track record and the “extremity of current metric values.”

The report also finds that the correlation between the current NUPL level and future returns remains weak. More specifically, the relationship with one-year returns is zero, while the three-year correlation is -0,16, indicating a weak inverse relationship over the long term.

This limited and inconsistent relationship aligns with Fidelity’s general view that lower NUPL levels “tend to be more positive.” However, the company emphasizes that past patterns may not necessarily repeat in the future.

“Most importantly, the historical relationship between the NUPL SOL score and future returns may not continue,” Fidelity states.

Solana Network Activity Shows a Different Story

Although prices have weakened, Solana network usage has actually increased. The number of active monthly addresses rose 50% in Q1 2026, and new addresses surged 35%.

“Solana usage has spiked despite the asset’s price decline. This indicates Solana as a growing financial ecosystem with users still transacting actively despite high volatility,” the report explains.

Stablecoin activity also remains steady. The average transfer value over 30 days increased by about 8%, reaching US$7.2 billion during this quarter.

Fidelity interprets this difference as evidence of a “strong and less cyclical user base,” suggesting that Solana is beginning to shift from its meme coin identity towards more mainstream and sustainable financial activity.