Is BTC reversal still a false signal or a trap for more gains?

Same question, is MaJie still around? It’s basically a counter-trend king, with unlimited liquidation, I really can’t stop laughing!

A reversal is a true trend change;诱多 (诱导多头) is just the market maker pulling the price up to lure in traders, then quickly dumping to harvest. Everyone has different opinions; there’s no absolute right or wrong.

Today, we’ll focus on three key points:

First, why did BTC suddenly rebound recently?

Second, what stage is the market currently in?

Third, are the main funds genuinely buying with real money, or just orchestrating a trap to lure in traders?

To judge whether the market is real or fake, we first need to understand: what is the core reason for this rally?

The biggest macro variable recently is the escalation of the US-Iran conflict.

Initially, the market reacted very directly: stocks and crypto all declined sharply, with US, Korean, and Japanese markets plunging collectively. The KOSPI index in Korea even hit two circuit breakers, panic was at its peak.

Then, we entered the second phase: funds started seeking safe-haven assets again, which we call alternative safe assets.

After the panic subsided, some funds began reallocating into BTC. This pattern is almost identical to the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022 — first a big drop, then a rebound.

You can see the chart I posted, right? This rebound has a key feature: trading volume is extremely high, and the change in open interest is very obvious. It’s real money entering the market to open positions, not just a false rally to lure in traders.

Also, by looking at ETF fund flows, you can clearly see funds entering.

Actually, market laws are like this: when emotions are extremely panicked, a rebound is more likely because most of the short positions that should be exited have already been closed, and selling pressure is thoroughly cleared.

Here’s a reminder: a rebound ≠ a reversal. They are not the same thing!

So next, we need to look at something more core: market structure.

From a structural perspective, BTC’s current state is very clear — it’s in a range-bound phase.

The main trading range now is roughly between 63,000 and 73,000, a typical wide-range oscillation.

This stage is crucial for institutions because it’s a key period for re-distribution and re-accumulation of chips.

Simply put: some are selling and exiting, others are buying in, and BTC’s price oscillates during this game. Whether it’s absorption or shakeout depends entirely on the movement of chips.

At this point, one data point becomes critical: chip distribution, represented by the blue and orange bars on the right side of the chart, which directly shows the majority of market participants’ cost basis.

By comparing the chip distribution in two recent periods, we see highly similar patterns — both are multi-peak structures.

A multi-peak structure usually indicates: rapid turnover of chips, with significant disagreement between bulls and bears.

There are two key signals to watch closely:

First, the chip concentration area in the second phase is narrower than in the first phase. To clarify, the dark area represents the 50% concentration zone. When this zone narrows, it indicates that market consensus is gradually strengthening.

Second, the 50% chip concentration zone in the second phase has moved upward. In a normal correction, the chip center of gravity should move downward. An upward shift now signals a short-term bullish structure.

Let me also briefly explain the basic use of chip distribution — even beginners can quickly understand:

When the price is above the chip peak, that peak acts as support;

When the price is below the chip peak, that peak acts as resistance.

For example, the chip peak circled at the bottom in the chart is a strong support; the one above indicated by the arrow is a strong resistance.

Chip distribution varies across different timeframes. Our AiCoin PRO has a dedicated chip distribution feature that allows you to see all chips or customize lines to view specific time ranges.

Now, let’s look at the most critical core: the true behavior of main funds.

To judge whether this rally is real or fake, the key point is: are the main players actually buying?

Look at the chart: during this rally, major platforms’ main players placed many large limit sell orders, which are real resistance levels.

What happened? All these sell orders were actively absorbed by funds. The buying momentum was very strong, and the main players’ sell orders kept getting filled without a pullback. This is a typical sign of strength.

Another key data point: the main players’ active buying behavior.

The green circles in the chart represent market buy orders.

Recently, the core pattern is: main players’ market buy orders > market sell orders, indicating large funds are actively accumulating.

Remember, retail traders usually don’t use continuous market buy orders (due to fees and slippage). These large market buy orders, each ≥1 million USD in spot, are definitely from big players and true funds.

To sum up the main players’ actions:

The limit sell orders placed by main players are being passively filled, while they actively buy with market orders. This clearly indicates: main players are stepping up to grab chips!

Additionally, tracking main players’ limit orders, fills, and market transactions can be done using our PRO indicators.

Another useful tip: observe whether large orders at the same price level are frequently placed and canceled.

If this pattern is present, and orders are short-lived, they are usually bait orders. You can see this clearly on the bait order display.

By combining all data — chip structure + main players’ transactions — you can make a clear judgment.

My view is very clear: this is a rebound, not a reversal.

I still hold the same opinion as last week: the overall trend has not changed.

The core logic is twofold:

First, the chip center of gravity is moving upward, indicating the market structure is not deteriorating;

Second, the increase in main players’ market buy orders shows genuine funds are supporting.

Therefore, the current market can be characterized as: structural rebound + main players testing the upper resistance.

Tonight, focus on two signals:

First, whether chips continue to move upward;

Second, whether main players keep actively buying.

The key level is 74,000 USD. Above that, there’s a gap in CME at around 78,000–81,000 USD.

If BTC can effectively break through 74,000, it may have a chance to push into this gap zone.