I recently saw this news and found it interesting from a market perspective. It turns out that a few days ago, China confirmed that three of its ships crossed the Strait of Hormuz without major incidents, and thanked the involved parties for their cooperation. The situation in that region remains delicate, so Beijing continues to insist on resuming peace and stability in the Gulf as soon as possible.

What caught my attention was what happened afterward. U.S. officials leaked that Trump is seriously considering ending military operations against Iran, even if the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked. That is quite significant because it would essentially mean Tehran maintains control over this critical maritime route, and reopening the passage would be postponed.

From China's point of view, this is complicated. The Strait of Hormuz is vital for global energy trade, and any prolonged closure directly affects Beijing. That’s why its call for stability makes perfect sense.

Now, looking at prediction markets, the outlook appears pessimistic. On Polymarket, the probability that the Strait of Hormuz will resume navigation before the end of April has dropped to 17%. This reflects what the market is thinking: the situation won't be resolved quickly. With Trump willing to delay this, it seems a prolonged blockade is ahead, which has serious implications for energy prices and market volatility.