CITIC Securities International: Microsoft and OpenAI Update Cooperation Agreement, Positive Outlook for Amazon and Google

On April 29, CITIC Securities International released a report indicating that OpenAI, Microsoft, and Amazon are restructuring their cooperation. Microsoft has terminated its exclusive rights to use OpenAI’s models and adjusted the partnership to a non-exclusive agreement effective until 2032. The cooperation model has shifted from an indefinite partnership linked to AGI to a fixed-term collaboration. Overall, this adjustment signifies a transition in the AI industry from ‘cloud platform lock-in’ to a more open multi-cloud model, enhancing competition between cloud providers and large models, while also offering enterprise clients greater flexibility in model and infrastructure combinations. Marginally, the report suggests that this is more beneficial for Amazon and Google’s cloud businesses, allowing them to access OpenAI models while reinforcing their neutral AI infrastructure strategy with multiple models and partners. For Microsoft, the report takes a more neutral and balanced view of the deal. The negative aspect is that losing exclusive cooperation with OpenAI weakens Azure’s differentiated advantage in the AI sector, which may somewhat hinder the marginal growth elasticity of its cloud business. Positive factors include better financial terms, ongoing large-scale Azure resource consumption, and continued ownership of approximately 27% of OpenAI’s shares, participating in its long-term growth. Additionally, this arrangement opens up more potential financing channels for OpenAI, somewhat safeguarding Microsoft’s existing investment value in OpenAI.