【BTC Key Decision Brief】

1. Current situation: The price is stuck at 77,100—wait 7 hours for Powell’s speech to set the direction.

• Bullish (doves) → Probe 78,000.

• Bearish (hawks) → Push down to 76,000.

2. Bull–bear conflict:

• Bullish: Exchange reserves are at a five-year low (ongoing accumulation) + growing expectations for the US “National BTC Reserve” (Polymarket probability 52%).

• Bearish: Momentum from a two-month winning streak is running out + weekly MACD top divergence is becoming less pronounced (risk of a major correction).

3. Key critical level:

77,000 USD is the short-term lifeline.

• Hold: Look for the rebound to continue.

• Break below: Could signal a “false breakout,” opening the door to a pullback.

4. Decision instructions:

• Core: Before the speech, strictly prohibit chasing rallies or panic selling.

• Action: Remain on the sidelines. Wait until the event-driven move, when price makes a clear choice at the 77,000 key level, and then follow the trend. $BTC $ETH $DOGE