I recently observed an interesting phenomenon: in the nuclear fission stocks sector, the performance of two companies varies greatly. NuScale and Oklo are both working on next-generation nuclear reactors, but their stock price trends are completely opposite—NuScale has fallen nearly 80%, while Oklo has only dropped 20%. What exactly is happening behind the scenes?

First, let's talk about the technical side. NuScale is developing small modular reactors (SMRs), with each reactor fitting into a container 65 feet tall and 9 feet wide. The key point is that it is the only SMR manufacturer to have received standard design approval from the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission. Last year, the NRC approved its 77 MWe design, and now it’s using this technology to build a 462 MWe plant for the RoPower project in Romania. The Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA) also agreed to deploy up to 6 GW of SMR capacity across seven states.

Oklo is taking a different approach. Its microreactors are even smaller than NuScale’s SMRs, with each Aurora microreactor producing only 1.5 MWe, but they can be linked together to reach 15 to 100 MWe. The most interesting part is that it uses metallic uranium fuel pellets, which are denser, more heat-resistant, and cheaper to produce than traditional uranium dioxide. Additionally, Oklo’s reactors can recycle fuel within a closed-loop system, requiring refueling roughly once every ten years, compared to NuScale and traditional reactors that need refueling every two years.

But here’s the problem—no matter how advanced the technology is, you have to get operational to start making money. NuScale’s project in Romania just received final investment approval, but the first reactors are not expected to be operational until the early 2030s. The TVA project’s reactors are also scheduled for 2032. Until then, NuScale relies on front-end engineering design studies, converting letters of intent into formal contracts, and licensing agreements. Analysts expect NuScale’s revenue to grow from $31 million in 2025 to $287 million in 2028, but the real breakout will likely happen in the 2030s.

Oklo’s situation is similar. It won’t be able to deploy its first reactors in Idaho until the end of 2027. If everything goes as planned, it could generate $16 million in revenue in 2027, with growth accelerating afterward.

Now, looking at valuation—this is the real reason for the stock price gap between the two companies. Oklo’s market cap is $9.7 billion, with a valuation multiple over 600 times its projected 2027 sales. NuScale’s market cap is $3.9 billion, with a multiple of 19 times its 2027 sales. Although both are expensive, Oklo’s premium is clearly more outrageous.

Interestingly, the market seems to favor Oklo’s ability to deploy reactors first. Investors care more about near-term catalysts rather than the long-term potential years down the line. While NuScale’s technology is solid, its biggest positives are still years away, making it more likely to be overlooked in this volatile market.

Personally, I think both nuclear fission stocks have potential, but each comes with its own risks. Oklo’s early deployment is an advantage, but its valuation has already baked in too many expectations. NuScale, while relatively reasonably valued, requires investors to be patient and wait for reactors to come online in the 2030s. In the short term, the market favors the more immediate prospects of Oklo, but that doesn’t necessarily mean NuScale has no chance—after all, the long-term space in this sector is large enough.