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Markets are now pricing a 61% chance of a hike next week, with a second likely in May- back to 4.35%, the same peak as the last cycle.
NAB’s chief economist has modelled 5% headline inflation for Australia if oil holds at or above $100. The RBA deputy governor acknowledged that scenario is no longer implausible.
Rate hikes slow demand, but they can’t fix a supply shock. Aussie mortgage holders will pay the price for a problem they didn’t create.

Amazon fired tens of thousands of engineers and replaced them with AI. Then set a mandatory target that 80% of the ones left must use AI for coding every week
(and tracked compliance, because nothing says “we trust this technology” like forcing people to use it)
They gave the AI the same system access as the humans it replaced. Asked it to fix something. It decided the easiest solution was to delete the entire environment and start over.
That deletion and rebuild process took 13 hours to resolve. They logged 4 critical outages the same week.
The official response was that it was user error.

Hedge funds are at their most short US stocks in over 3 years.
Goldman just flagged that this could set up for an extreme rally.
Violent squeeze or 2022 all over again?

The word ‘oversold’ has been doing a lot of heavy lifting lately.
Oversold describes a condition not an obligation. In a downtrend it’s basically meaningless; a market can sit there for weeks while everyone waiting for the bounce slowly becomes exit liquidity for whoever sold the top.
Same logic applies on the way up. Overbought in an uptrend isn’t a signal, it’s just a description of momentum. The signal is when buyers stop showing up, and that happens on its own schedule.
Price doesn’t owe you a reaction just because an indicator hit a number.

Australia’s employment minister Amanda Rishworth went on record this week saying there is no fuel crisis in Australia.
Sydney is paying $2.20 a litre. Diesel is $2.11 nationally. Half of all stations are above $2.
The $2.3 billions in refinery subsidies keeping Lytton and Geelong alive are the only reason the reserve number isn’t zero.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​
“No crisis” though.

The Strait of Hormuz is effectively closed. 20 million barrels a day (about 20% of everything the world burns) has been offline since US and Israeli strikes killed Khamenei on Feb 28, the largest supply disruption in recorded history.
Every producer outside the conflict just got asked to step up. Kazakhstan and US shale said no and executives publicly stated they’d need prices stable at these levels for a full year before changing capital plans, and they’re using the spike to hedge and return cash to shareholders instead.
OPEC+’s official response to a 20 million barrel gap was a 206,000 barr

How many Australians are on this app?

They’re called rare earths by they’re not rare.
Most of them are as common in the earth’s crust as copper or nickel. Large deposits exist in the US, Australia, Brazil.
In 1992, Deng Xiaoping visited a mine in Inner Mongolia and said “the Middle East has oil, China has rare earths”
3 years later, General Motors sold the only US company making magnets for American missiles. The buyer looked American, an investment group headed by the son of the Watergate prosecutor. But behind it was 2 Chinese state owned firms, both run by sons in law of Deng Xiaoping.
The US government approved it. The only

Scientists took the complete wiring diagram of a fruit fly brain and loaded it into a virtual body and turned it on.
It started walking.
The scary part is that nobody programmed the behaviour, it just emerged from the structure .
A fruit fly has 139,000 neurons.
A human brain has 86 billion.
That gap sounds enormous until you realize closing it is nothing more than engineering problem (something we are very good at)
We just proved you can digitally resurrect a mind from its wiring diagram alone.
But don’t worry it’s only a fly. For now.

Australia has no first amendment. Nothing even equivalent.
In the US, if you’re reporting on a public figure they have to prove you lied deliberately, or with reckless disregard for the truth.
Thats why American investigative journalism is brutal and relentless.
Australia runs the opposite system. Once the plaintiff establishes something defamatory the burden shifts. The journalist must prove in court that every single claim is true. One contested fact is enough to get you in trouble.
Legal costs can reach up to $800,000. You don’t even have to lose, you just have to be sued.
Australia is al

Drew Pavlou and Pete Zogoulas just released the most damning piece of investigative journalism Australia has produced in years.
Minnesota’s disability fraud broke the internet. Australia’s makes it look small.
The NDIS is a $52 billion/year program, the 3rd largest expense on the federal budget and larger than Australia’s entire defence budget.
In Lakemba there are 1,300 registered providers. Statistically, 1 in every 3 people is running one.
The investigation shows 9 providers sharing a single building address. Every door was locked across multiple visits. Phone numbers disconnected, websit