Bitcoin Price has faced persistent downward pressure recently, briefly dropping below the $90,000 mark—a decline of more than 27% from its all-time high at the end of October. Market sentiment has plunged into "extreme fear," with the Fear & Greed Index hitting just 11, its lowest level in years.
Yet, amid this pessimism, several top analysts see signs that Bitcoin is gearing up for a third major wave of expansion, with price forecasts ranging from $200,000 to $240,000.
01 Market Sentiment: Opportunities Hidden in Extreme Fear
According to Gate data from November 18, Bitcoin’s Fear & Greed Index has dropped to 11, signaling "extreme fear."
This kind of sentiment often acts as a contrarian indicator. Historical data shows that when the index falls below 15, it typically marks the approach of a market bottom.
Currently, Bitcoin is hovering around $91,836, with a 24-hour price change of -0.4%. The price range over the past day has been between $91,202 and $96,188.
Measured from the October all-time high of $126,000, Bitcoin has corrected by more than 27% and is now in a key support zone.
02 Bullish Signals: Analysts Rally Around the Third Wave Theory
Market analyst Gert Van Lagen notes that Bitcoin has once again bounced off its 40-week simple moving average (SMA), suggesting the second corrective wave may be nearing completion and a third wave of expansion is on the horizon.
Van Lagen’s "stepwise" Elliott Wave model indicates that Bitcoin tends to build a solid foundation before each major breakout.
Similar setups in 2019 and 2023 preceded steep rallies, implying that the current consolidation could be the launchpad for the next parabolic surge.
Another crypto analyst, Jelle, shares this view. He believes Bitcoin is currently facing resistance near the midpoint of its long-term ascending channel.
Once Bitcoin breaks through this level, the channel’s upper boundary—around $350,000—could unlock substantial upside potential.
03 Wave Theory: Decoding Bitcoin’s Supercycle
The Bitcoin supercycle theory emerged during the last bull market, when expectations ran high for prices to reach $100,000.
Those expectations faded during the bear market, but as Bitcoin now trades above $100,000, belief in the supercycle has returned in full force.
Analyst Weslad points out that if the supercycle is still underway, Bitcoin’s price is far from its actual peak.
According to the supercycle theory, the third wave is still unfolding and has yet to reach its top.
Weslad explains that if this third wave completes, Bitcoin could reach $172,000—a more than 50% increase from current levels.
Completion of the third wave would confirm that the supercycle trend is intact. Once Bitcoin hits $172,000, the market would likely enter a more bearish fourth wave.
This crypto analyst expects the fourth wave to erase all gains from the third wave, pulling Bitcoin back down to $107,000.
However, this sets the stage for the fifth and final wave, which is typically the most bullish.
Weslad predicts the last wave could drive Bitcoin up to $300,000, citing the 2020–2021 bull cycle as a precedent.
04 Institutional Optimism: Bitwise Maps Out a $200K Trajectory
Ryan Rasmussen, Head of Research at Bitwise, recently set an even more ambitious price target, forecasting Bitcoin to reach $200,000 in 2025.
This prediction comes from an analyst who accurately anticipated the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in 2024, making the market pay close attention.
Rasmussen’s thesis rests on several key factors: record-breaking inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs, crypto-friendly policies under a Trump administration, and the emergence of 401(k) plans as a new channel for retail crypto adoption, potentially bringing in billions of dollars.
Coinbase’s eventual inclusion in the S&P 500 and MicroStrategy’s entry into the Nasdaq are also expected to attract more institutional capital to the market.
05 On-Chain Data: Easing Sell Pressure Supports Bullish Outlook
Despite short-term price action weakness, on-chain data is flashing positive signals. Glassnode reports that open interest in futures contracts declined after the October 10 liquidation event, with derivative activity slowing across exchanges.
The average order size for BTC futures has also shrunk significantly, indicating less whale participation and a greater impact from smaller retail traders.
However, on-chain liquidation patterns may be signaling a bullish reversal. Data from Hyblock Capital shows a cluster of long liquidations near $100,000 on November 4, hinting at local mean reversion before a modest recovery.
If recent liquidation pockets around the CME gap trigger another rebound, Bitcoin could establish a bullish reversal pivot above $105,000, reinforcing the broader uptrend described by analysts.
06 Macro Environment: Economic Recovery Could Boost Bitcoin
Macro researcher Sminston With writes that broader economic conditions may soon favor risk assets like Bitcoin.
With notes that the US Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI)—a key measure of business activity—has been below 50 for nearly three years, marking the longest economic slowdown since records began in 1948.
Historically, such prolonged slumps are often followed by strong recoveries as business cycles normalize.
This rebound, or "mean reversion," typically draws investors back into high-risk assets, setting the stage for a renewed risk appetite.
As a high-growth, speculative asset, Bitcoin could be one of the main beneficiaries once market confidence returns.
07 Trading Strategies: Seizing Opportunities Amid Volatility
For short-term trading strategies, Gate analysts recommend entry points for BTC between $91,200 and $92,000, and for ETH between $2,950 and $3,050.
For take-profit and stop-loss levels, set BTC at ±5% and ETH at ±7%. Position management should use 10–15% of total capital, with a medium risk rating.
For mid-term investment planning, the trend is expected to be mainly sideways with cautious optimism. Suggested allocation: 60% BTC and 40% ETH. Pay close attention to key factors such as SEC regulatory policies and institutional investment trends.
Market outlook: 30% probability of a bull market, 20% for a bear market, and 50% for a sideways market. Catalysts include SEC regulatory framework and institutional investment movements.
The market structure is expected to become clearer over the next 1–3 months.
Outlook
Markets always swing between fear and greed, but true insight comes from seeing beyond the surface of emotional volatility. When the Fear Index drops to 11 and Bitcoin falls more than 27% from its peak, history tells us this is often the calm before the storm.
Bitcoin’s potential third wave of expansion won’t be a smooth ride, but once it begins, the $200,000 target will no longer be an unattainable dream.
Financial markets always reward those who remain rational when others are gripped by fear.
