Bitcoin challenges the $80,000 level, forming a 'death cross' as American stocks mimic the COVID-19 crash of 2020

Bitcoin hit its lowest level of the month as the market faced pressure from unemployment data in the US.

Bitcoin loses momentum at the beginning of April as stocks plunge

Data from TradingView confirms that BTC/USD has fallen below $82,000 for the first time since the beginning of the month.

BTC/USDT hourly chart | Source: TradingViewPreviously, Bitcoin surged to $88,580 when the U.S. government announced retaliatory trade tariffs. However, the rally quickly weakened as the market reassessed the impact of stronger-than-expected measures.

U.S. stocks are also under significant pressure, with the S&P 500 index dropping over 4% on the day at the time of writing.

“According to the Kobeissi Letter, ‘the 4.84% drop today is pushing the S&P 500 towards its largest one-day decline since the lockdown period during the pandemic in 2020.’ Since the peak after hours trading at 4:25 PM ET yesterday, the S&P 500 has shed more than $3 trillion in market capitalization.”

S&P 500 4-hour chart | Source: TradingViewThe latest data from the U.S. Department of Labor (DoL) shows that the number of initial unemployment claims only reached 219,000, lower than the previous forecast of 228,000.

The report also adjusted last week’s figures up by 1,000 claims, bringing the total to 225,000. Meanwhile, the 4-week average decreased by 1,250 to 223,000, reflecting an improving trend in the labor market.

A strong labor market is often not beneficial for risk assets, as this implies that policymakers may be able to maintain high interest rates for a longer period.

Despite the data above, CME Group’s FedWatch tool still shows that the market is betting on the possibility that the Fed will cut interest rates at the FOMC meeting in June.

The probability of the Fed’s target interest rate | Source: CME Group*“As the risk of recession increases, the market believes that the Fed will have no choice but to ease monetary policy soon, possibly as early as next month,” Kobeissi commented.*

Bitcoin may decrease in price in the “3-6 months”

BTC price continues to disappoint in the short term as the support level of $80,000 is increasingly threatened.

Trader Roman describes the current situation with the phrase “up the stairs, down the elevator.”

Commenting on the market, Byzantine General pointed out that the number of Short positions is increasing on major cryptocurrency pairs, while noting that the new tax levels will keep market conditions bleak.

“It is very likely that there will be a liquidity sweep below the local bottom levels before the price rebounds to force the short positions, after which the market will continue to fluctuate but in a downward trend,” he shared on X.

“I believe that with the potential application of tariff measures, the rise of Bitcoin will be limited.”

Bitcoin and Ethereum market data | Source: Byzantine General/XThe latest data from the on-chain analytics company Glassnode continues to provide not very positive signals. Accordingly, Bitcoin has just recorded the formation of a “Death Cross” - when two moving average (MA) lines intersect negatively.

“On-chain analysis shows that a similar ‘Death Cross’ pattern has emerged: the 30-day volume-weighted average price of BTC has slipped below the 180-day level - a clear indicator of weakening momentum,” Glassnode shared on platform X.

The company also warns: “In the past, this pattern has often signaled a prolonged downtrend lasting from 3 to 6 months.”

Source: Glassnode/Previously, Glassnode noted that the speculative sell-offs in recent months have been relatively modest in scale, not sufficient to create clear price peaks like previous growth cycles.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice. Investors should conduct thorough research before making any decisions. We are not responsible for your investment decisions.

• Arthur Hayes: Bitcoin must hold this level until the tax submission date.
• How has Bitcoin maintained its value over the past 16 years?

SN_Nour

@media only screen and (min-width: 0px) and (min-height: 0px) { div[id^=“wrapper-sevio-d89f58f5-7b63-40be-98c0-6b1fd62584fb”] { width:320px; height: 100px; } } @media only screen and (min-width: 728px) and (min-height: 0px) { div[id^=“wrapper-sevio-d89f58f5-7b63-40be-98c0-6b1fd62584fb”] { width: 728px; height: 90px; } }