US stocks await NVIDIA earnings report, Bitcoin stabilizes, gold slightly falls: the market focuses on the Fed personnel upheaval and economic data.

On Wednesday, U.S. stocks rose slightly, with the S&P 500 index up 0.2%, as the market closely follows NVIDIA’s earnings report to assess the sustainability of the AI market. The euro, despite stable demand, fell to a three-week low, while the dollar strengthened due to month-end capital outflows. Gold slightly retreated after a surge the previous day, primarily due to Trump’s plan to fire Federal Reserve Board of Governors member Lisa Cook, which raised legal disputes and concerns over Central Bank independence. The market is awaiting U.S. GDP and PCE inflation data to evaluate the prospects of Fed interest rate cuts.

[The U.S. stock market is stable and awaiting changes, NVIDIA’s earnings report becomes a market barometer]

On Wednesday, the S&P 500 index rose 0.2%, the Nasdaq Composite Index edged up 0.1%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 135 points. Overall trading was quiet, reflecting investors’ reluctance to make significant adjustments to their positions ahead of Nvidia’s earnings report. As the current leader in AI concepts and the largest component of the S&P (with a weight of about 8%), Nvidia’s earnings report is seen as key to whether the recent rally in tech stocks can be sustained. Any results that exceed expectations could impact the overall market trend.

【Euro demand remains solid but exchange rate is under pressure, dollar rebound is the main reason】

(Source: Bloomberg)

Despite the ongoing political uncertainty in France, the demand for bullish euro options remains strong, indicating that investors’ mid-to-long-term confidence in the euro is not diminished. However, the euro/USD fell to a three-week low on Wednesday, mainly due to the strengthening of the dollar driven by month-end cash flows. The previous day, news that Trump planned to fire Federal Reserve Board of Governors member Lisa Cook temporarily suppressed the dollar, boosting the euro by 0.2%, but the dollar quickly rebounded.

[Gold slight fall, Central Bank personnel turmoil triggers risk aversion emotions]

Spot gold fell 0.1% to $3388.15 per ounce on Wednesday, while futures gold rose slightly by 0.2%. The slight pullback in gold prices was mainly influenced by a stronger dollar and rising U.S. bond yields, but safe-haven demand still provided support. Previously, Trump announced plans to fire Federal Reserve Board of Governors member Lisa Cook, who stated she would file a lawsuit, raising market concerns over Central Bank independence and pushing gold to a more than two-week high in the previous trading session.

【Bitcoin Trend Comparison: Stability of Digital Assets Amid Macroeconomic Turbulence】

Price Performance: Bitcoin is currently stable around $111,400, with a slight decrease of 0.2% compared to the previous day, but the volatility is significantly lower than the sharp declines seen in previous weeks.

Market Environment: Similar to gold, Bitcoin remains strong under the influence of safe-haven buying, amidst the macro backdrop of expectations for Fed rate cuts and a strong dollar. Compared to the stock market driven by earnings reports and gold stimulated by safe-haven demand, Bitcoin’s price has stabilized near a two-month low, demonstrating a certain level of resistance.

Capital Flow and On-Chain Trends: Recent large transfers by whales have triggered short-term fluctuations, but on-chain activity remains high, with options positions concentrated in the $110,000–$115,000 range. Some analysts believe BTC has returned near the 100-day EMA, and if it holds steady, it could trigger short-term rebound momentum.

Comparative Perspective: In the context of cautious sideways movement in US stocks, slight fluctuations in gold, and pressure on the euro, Bitcoin’s trend is more akin to the characteristics of “digital gold”, indicating that the correlation between crypto assets and traditional assets still exists, but the volatility rhythms are not synchronized.

[Market Attention Turns to Economic Data, PCE Inflation Becomes a Weather Vane for Interest Rate Cuts]

Investors are awaiting the U.S. GDP data to be released on Thursday and the PCE price index to be announced on Friday— the latter being the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. The market expects the July PCE to rise by 2.6% year-on-year, and if the result is higher than expected, it could significantly reduce market expectations for interest rate cuts. According to the CME FedWatch tool, traders currently estimate that the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September exceeds 87%. In addition, precious metals such as silver, platinum, and palladium have all seen slight declines, reflecting the impact of a stronger dollar and adjustments in interest rate expectations.

[Conclusion: The market is in a wait-and-see state, influenced by multiple factors.]

NVIDIA’s financial report, the turmoil in the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, political risks in France, and the upcoming key economic data together constitute a high level of uncertainty in the current market. Whether NVIDIA can meet the high expectations for AI, whether the PCE data can reverse the narrative of interest rate cuts, and whether the strength of the dollar can be sustained will all become key variables influencing the movement of global assets in the short term. It is advised that investors remain vigilant and avoid excessive exposure to risks before major events.