Trading Moment: Market sentiment is temporarily bearish, with Bitcoin and Ethereum cautiously at $100,000 and $4,000, respectively. Will the listing of WLFI exacerbate the bloodsucking?

Daily market key data review and trend analysis, produced by PANews.

1. Market Observation

The market is at a critical crossroads, with a flurry of employment reports, key inflation data, and the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision set to come in the next two weeks, which will set the tone for the market. Historical data shows that September is usually the worst-performing month for U.S. stocks, yet the current Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) is at an unusually low level, and the S&P 500 has not seen significant pullbacks for several days, a strange calm that has raised concerns among some Wall Street analysts. Tom Lee, chairman of BitMine’s board, predicts the market will experience a 5% to 10% pullback this fall, followed by a rebound at the end of the year. Ed Yardeni of Yardeni Research questions the likelihood of a rate cut in September, arguing that persistent inflation risks may keep the Federal Reserve from changing rates, potentially causing short-term shocks to the market.

It is worth noting that the spot silver price has broken through $40 per ounce for the first time since 2011, with an increase of over 40% this year. The U.S. Geological Survey proposed including silver in the “critical minerals list,” which Citibank interpreted as a possible precursor to imposing import tariffs of up to 50%. The bank maintains a bullish forecast for silver prices at $43 per ounce. Meanwhile, thanks to strong performance and growth in AI chip shipments, Goldman Sachs has once again raised the target price for Cambrian to 2104 yuan within a week, optimistic about its leadership position in China’s AI chip sector.

In the cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin is facing a critical test. Overall market sentiment is cautiously bearish, with a report from Greeks.live indicating that Bitcoin’s performance is weak, and the key price level of $108,000 lacks strong support. The current market adjustment is attributed to “market fatigue” or potential manipulation, with attention on the volatility that the non-farm payroll data on September 5 might trigger. Pessimistic sentiment mainly focuses on concerns over key support levels. Analyst Ted believes Bitcoin may have formed a short-term top at $124,000 and plans to short when prices rebound to the range of $115,000 to $120,000. Both Big Smokey and Altcoin Sherpa see the risk of short-term prices dropping to $105,000 or lower, pointing out that long-term whale wallet sell-offs, stagnant spot ETF inflows, and weak traditional markets are the main sources of pressure, with short-term key support at $104,000. A more pessimistic forecast comes from trader Roman, who warns that if the range of $98,000 to $100,000 is broken, it may “officially confirm the end of the bull market”; AlphaBTC also notes that if a bearish crossover signal on the daily chart reoccurs, it could lead to prices retracing to $92,000, or even dropping to $80,000 lows. However, there are also optimistic voices in the market. Michaël van de Poppe sees $102,000 to $104,000 as the ideal entry range. CrypNuevo believes that the current situation is more likely a market deviation rather than a deep correction, expecting that large funds will buy during the panic ahead of interest rate adjustments, even if prices may test $107,200 or pull back to $94,000 in the short term, but he believes the CME gap at $117,000 will eventually be filled.

In contrast to the weakness of Bitcoin, Ethereum shows relative strength. Analyst Ted pointed out that although Ethereum has recently outperformed Bitcoin, it may still face pressure to retest the key support level of $4000 in the short term. On-chain data shows that an ancient Bitcoin whale is continuously swapping its held Bitcoin for Ethereum, having recently accumulated over 837,000 ETH through the sale of BTC. Analyst Axel Bitblaze believes that the current lack of market liquidity is the main issue, but as the Federal Reserve starts to cut interest rates and ends quantitative tightening, liquidity is expected to return in October or November, thereby driving a market rebound and paving the way for a new bull market in 2026.

In terms of market dynamics, the WLFI token will become the focus at 9 PM tonight TGE, and its ecological projects Blockstreet (BLOCK) and Dolomite (DOLO) are also in high demand as a result. On-chain data shows that the well-known market maker Jump Crypto is suspected to have become the market maker for WLFI. The project has received investments from multiple institutions, including DWF Labs ($25 million), Aqua One Fund ($100 million), and NASDAQ listed company ALT5 Sigma ($1.5 billion). A partner from Momentum 6 also stated that they hold a seven-figure position.

2. Key Data (as of September 1, 12:00 HKT)

(Data source: Coinglass, Upbit, Coingecko, SoSoValue, Tomars)

• Bitcoin: $107,863 (YTD +15.24%), daily spot trading volume $30.48 billion
• Ethereum: $4,397.19 (Year-to-date +31.69%), daily spot trading volume is $23.75 billion
• Fear and Greed Index: 47 (Neutral)
• Average GAS: BTC: 1 sat/vB, ETH: 0.274 Gwei
• Market Share: BTC 58.05%, ETH 14%
• Upbit 24-hour trading volume ranking: XRP, ETH, BTC, SOL, POL
• 24-hour BTC Long/Short Ratio: 49.88%/50.12%
• Sector Changes: GameFi decreased by 7.76%, AI decreased by 5.38%
• 24-Hour Liquidation Data: A total of 100,327 people were liquidated globally, with a total liquidation amount of $230 million. The BTC liquidation amounted to $33.58 million, ETH liquidation was $57.02 million, and SOL liquidation was $13.51 million.
• BTC Medium to Long-term Trend Channel: Upper boundary line (112577.10 USD), lower boundary line (110347.85 USD)
• ETH Medium to Long-term Trend Channel: Upper channel line (4477.41 USD), lower channel line (4388.75 USD)

*Note: When the price is above the upper and lower bounds, it indicates a medium to long-term bullish trend; conversely, it indicates a bearish trend. When the price is within the range or repeatedly crosses the cost range in the short term, it indicates a state of bottoming or topping.

3. ETF Flows (as of August 29)

• Bitcoin ETF: -$127 million, first net outflow after a net inflow on the 4th
• Ethereum ETF: -165 million USD

4. Today’s Outlook

• The US stock market will be closed for one day on September 1.
• WLFI will launch on the Ethereum mainnet on September 1st, and early investors will unlock 20%.
• Starknet will enter an important stage of decentralized ordering on September 1, and will support Bitcoin staking in the coming weeks.
• Binance wallet Phase 36 TGE launches Forest(FOREST)
• Binance Alpha will launch Quack AI on September 2nd (Q)
• Eric Trump, son of Donald Trump, will attend the special shareholders’ meeting of Metaplanet on September 1.
• Sui (SUI) will unlock approximately 44 million tokens on September 1 at 8 AM, accounting for 1.25% of the current circulating supply, valued at approximately $145 million;
• ZetaChain (ZETA) will unlock approximately 44.26 million tokens on September 1 at 8 AM, which is 4.55% of the current circulating supply, valued at about 8.4 million USD.
• Ethena (ENA) will unlock approximately 40.63 million tokens on September 2 at 3 PM, which is 0.64% of the current circulating supply, valued at around 27.1 million USD;

Top 100 cryptocurrencies with the largest decline in market value today: Four.meme dropped 22.4%, Conflux dropped 10.5%, Pi Network dropped 9.4%, Pyth Network dropped 8.6%, Fartcoin dropped 6.8%.

5. Hot News

• Data: Tokens such as SUI, ENA, IMX will see large unlocks, with SUI unlocking worth approximately $145 million.
• This Week’s Preview | WLFI launches on the Ethereum mainnet, early investors will unlock 20%; Non-farm payroll data on September 5 may bring significant market volatility.
• This week’s macro outlook: Trump’s “power game” with the Federal Reserve heats up, and expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut are reignited.
• A certain ancient Bitcoin whale has deposited 1000 BTC into HyperLiquid for the purpose of exchanging for ETH.
• Binance will list World Liberty Financial (WLFI) and add a seed label for it.
• The Solana Alpenglow proposal has been voted through, and the block finalization time will be shortened to 150 milliseconds.
• Trend Research transferred 4.72 million USD in ENS to Binance and 4.78 million USD in PENDLE to Binance.
• ZhongAn Online: ZhongAn Technology intends to increase its investment in ZhongAn International, which has entered into a share purchase agreement with Cosmos, OKG, and others.
• Japanese nail salon operator Convano plans to raise $3 billion to support its Bitcoin treasury reserves.
• Bonk.fun has reached a partnership with WLFI, becoming the official USD1 Launchpad platform on Solana.
• The Ethereum Community Fund has launched the ETH destruction proof token BETH.
• China Financial Leasing Group disclosed that it has invested in BlackRock and Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs listed in Hong Kong.
• Star investor Kevin O’Leary: The proportion of personal BTC and crypto-related assets in his investment portfolio exceeds 10%.
• Japanese gaming giant Gumi plans to invest approximately $17 million to purchase XRP
• International Commercial Settlement Holdings plans to raise HKD 500 million, with 90% earmarked for exploring cryptocurrency investment opportunities.