Warning! Bitcoin falls below $110,000, double bearish pattern and ETF capital outflow trigger a downward alarm.

Against the backdrop of a continuous slowdown in fund inflows into the spot Bitcoin ETF in the United States for two weeks, the price of Bitcoin (BTC) has fallen below the key support level of $110,000. What is more concerning is that two bearish technical patterns have formed on the BTC price chart, suggesting that there may be greater downside risks in the coming weeks.

As of September 27 (Saturday) closing, the trading price of Bitcoin was approximately $109,600, a 12% fall from its historical high, and hovering at the lowest level since September 2.

Macroeconomic Headwinds: Interest Rate Cut Expectations Undermined

The pullback of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies this week was mainly influenced by weakened demand from American investors and hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials.

· ETF capital outflows accelerate: Data from SoSoValue shows that institutional demand for BTC ETF is weakening.

This week (as of September 26), all Bitcoin ETFs experienced a net outflow of up to $902 million.

In comparison, the net inflow for the previous week (as of September 19) was $886 million, while the week before that (as of September 12) saw a strong inflow of $2.34 billion.

· The Federal Reserve warns: Several Federal Reserve officials, including Austan Goolsbee, Beth Hammack, and Raphael Bostic, caution that caution should be exercised regarding interest rate cuts. They point out that inflation rates have been above the 2% target for over four consecutive years, and the labor market remains strong with low unemployment rates.

· Strong Economy: The U.S. economy shows resilience, with a 3.8% growth in the second quarter and a significant decline in the number of initial jobless claims in recent weeks, further weakening market expectations for a substantial rate cut in the near term.

Technical Analysis Warning: Double Bearish Pattern Emerges

As prices remain weak, both the daily and weekly charts of BTC are forming bearish patterns that could lead to further falls:

· Daily chart: Head and Shoulders (Head-and-Shoulders) pattern

Formation of the pattern: Bitcoin price has slowly formed a Head-and-Shoulders pattern during the pullback over the past few weeks. This is a classic reversal pattern that usually indicates that the price will move further down after it forms.

Key indicators: BTC has fallen below the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA), while the relative strength index (RSI) is also on a downward trend.

Potential target: These technical signals all point to further downside, with the 50% Fibonacci retracement level at $100,000 psychological barrier becoming the next important support level target.

· Weekly Chart: Rising Wedge ( with Bearish Divergence

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(Source: TradingView)

Rising Wedge: The weekly chart shows that BTC has formed a Rising Wedge pattern, characterized by two converging upward trend lines. When these two lines converge, it typically signals a bearish breakout.

Bearish Divergence: Oscillators such as RSI and MACD move downward while prices continue to rise, forming a bearish divergence pattern.

Conclusion: Both of these weekly patterns suggest that BTC faces greater downside risk in the coming weeks.

Outlook: Non-Farm Payroll Data in Focus

Looking ahead, the next important catalyst affecting the price movements of Bitcoin and other crypto assets will be the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls data released this Friday.

· Policy barometer: This data will be a key reference for determining whether the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates at the October meeting.

· Strong Employment: If employment data remains strong (low unemployment rate, high non-farm payroll numbers), it will further delay interest rate cut expectations, thereby putting continuous pressure on BTC prices.

· Weak employment: Conversely, weak employment data will increase the likelihood of the Federal Reserve taking dovish actions, which is expected to boost market sentiment and bring rebound momentum to BTC prices.

Conclusion

Bitcoin's price has fallen below the $110,000 support amid macroeconomic headwinds, forming a double bearish technical pattern on both the daily and weekly charts. Coupled with the accelerated outflow of institutional ETF funds, the market is facing a severe test. This Friday's non-farm payroll report will be a key event in determining the Federal Reserve's next steps and whether Bitcoin can hold the critical $100,000 psychological support level.