Can the magic of Bitcoin's "Uptober" be replicated? Beware of the three major scenarios in the fourth quarter under the outflow of ETF funds.

As September comes to a close with a slight rise of 1%, Bitcoin's price is experiencing significant fluctuations around $109,000, and market sentiment is shifting towards October, historically one of the strongest months. Historical data shows that Bitcoin has risen in 10 out of the past 12 years in October, with an average increase of 21.89%. However, the current market is facing a massive net outflow of nearly $1.7 billion in total funds for Bitcoin and Ether ETFs in just one week, compounded by macroeconomic policy uncertainties, making the trend in the fourth quarter highly unpredictable. There is a need to be wary of the contradictions between seasonal patterns and immediate fundamentals.

Historical Patterns: The “Uptober” Phenomenon Revealed by Data and Its Driving Logic

(Source: CoinGlass)

The “Uptober” circulating in the Bitcoin market is by no means baseless, but is supported by long-term historical data and seasonal investment logic.

· Extremely high closing rise rate and strong increase: Since 2013, Bitcoin has shown significant regularity in its performance in October—over the past 12 years, there have been 10 closing rises, with an average increase of up to 21.89%. Especially during the bull market initiation or acceleration phases in 2013 (+60.79%), 2017 (+47.81%), and 2021 (+39.93%), the performance in October is particularly remarkable.

· Seasonal logic support: The formation of this phenomenon is attributed to the resonance of multiple logics:

1. Institutional Asset Reallocation Window: The fourth quarter is usually the time when institutional investors reallocate funds, with an increase in risk appetite at the end of the year, which benefits high-volatility assets.

2. Halving Cycle Effect: The supply contraction effect brought about by the Bitcoin halving cycle may become concentrated in the fourth quarter after the halving in 2024, resonating with October.

3. Macroeconomic liquidity easing expectations: The Federal Reserve has released dovish signals multiple times between September and October in recent years. Given that the interest rate cut in September 2024 has been confirmed, the market's expectation for further rate cuts in October has risen to 91.9%, providing ample liquidity expectations for risk assets.

However, investors must recognize that history is not an absolute template. In October 2014 and 2018, declines of -12.95% and -3.83% were recorded, indicating that the realization of “Uptober” requires a positive synergy of macro fundamentals. The slight rise of 1% in September 2025 at the end of the month, coupled with insufficient momentum, makes October's performance more reliant on immediate fundamentals rather than purely seasonal patterns.

Divergence in Capital: Large-scale Outflow of ETFs and Resilience of Long-term Holders

In the last two weeks of September, the price of Bitcoin fell from $117,000 to around $108,000, a decline of nearly 8%. During this period, the total liquidation amount across the network exceeded $3 billion, and long leverage was significantly cleaned out. Although analysts believe this is a “healthy correction,” the capital flow has sent conflicting signals.

· ETF capital outflow intensifies: Bitcoin spot ETF has seen consecutive net outflows over several days, with a weekly scale reaching as high as 902.5 million USD, and top products like BlackRock's IBIT and Fidelity's FBTC have not been spared. At the same time, Ethereum ETF is also facing severe challenges, with weekly outflows nearing 800 million USD, setting the worst record since its launch. The phase of cooling institutional demand reflects the market's cautious attitude towards currently overvalued assets.

· On-chain data shows long-term confidence: In contrast to the outflow of ETFs, on-chain data exhibits the resilience of long-term holders (HODLer). Despite price pressure, HODLers have not shown panic selling, and the net realized profit and loss (NRPL) remains positive. Especially near key support levels around $109,500, buying interest remains active, indicating that core investors' confidence in long-term scarcity and the halving narrative has not wavered.

This market differentiation clearly reveals the core contradiction: short-term capital flows are constrained by macroeconomic uncertainty, while the scarcity narrative of Bitcoin (institutional accumulation, supply contraction) serves as long-term support.

Fourth Quarter Game: The Driving and Suppressing Forces of Bulls and Bears

The direction of Bitcoin in the fourth quarter will be the result of the interplay of macro liquidity, institutional behavior, and regulatory forces.

· Bullish catalyst

1. If the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates as expected at the FOMC meeting on October 29, it will weaken the US dollar. The negative correlation between Bitcoin and the dollar index has reached a two-year low of -0.25, and the interest rate cut cycle is favorable for capital inflows into the crypto market.

2. As of August 2025, over 290 companies hold Bitcoin worth $163 billion, with corporate demand growing at approximately 4.3 times the Bitcoin supply. In addition, the Ethereum fork upgrade is scheduled for April 2026, and a smooth progress will reignite market interest in smart contract platforms.

3. If the technical aspect can hold the support at $109,500 and break through the resistance at $117,700, it may trigger a trend reversal. The current trend is highly similar to the consolidation and shakeout before the 2017 bull market started.

· Risk and Suppressive Factors

1. The strengthening of compliance reviews by the US SEC on cryptocurrency exchanges and the investigation into the digital asset treasury model (DAT) may suppress the pace of institutional entry.

2. The negative feedback from ETF fund outflows may amplify selling pressure. Once the price breaks below key support, panic selling could lead to a price test of the low of $98,000.

3. Recently, projects such as UXLINK and GriffinAI have suffered hacking attacks. If security incidents spread, it may undermine overall market confidence.

Future Path Forecast: Market Trend Estimation Under Three Scenarios

Based on the current complex variables, Bitcoin may present the following three scenarios in the fourth quarter:

· Optimistic scenario (probability 30%): The Federal Reserve releases clear dovish signals, Bitcoin quickly recovers to $115,000 and challenges historical highs. Institutional funds flow back into ETF, combined with “Uptober” sentiment, driving prices towards the $165,000 target.

· Neutral Scenario (Probability 50%): Long and short factors continue to tug of war, Bitcoin fluctuates widely in the range of 100,000 - 120,000 USD. The market waits for clear signals such as the results of the U.S. interest rate cut, with high volatility but lacking a trending direction.

· Cautious Scenario (Probability 20%): Macro data or regulatory tightening triggers systemic sell-off, Bitcoin tests the support at $100,000. If it falls below this level, it may further test $98,000 (52-week moving average), but long-term investors may accelerate accumulation in this area.

Conclusion

“Uptober” is an event with a high historical probability, but it is not an automatic calendar magic; rather, it is a product of market psychology intertwined with macro fundamentals. In the fourth quarter of 2025, Bitcoin undoubtedly stands at a critical crossroads. The fluctuations in September have cleaned up the leverage, which is both a release of risk and may lay the groundwork for a potential rebound in October. Investors should closely monitor the marginal changes in Federal Reserve policies and ETF fund flows, using seasonal patterns as a reference, rather than the sole basis for decision-making. In a landscape where volatility and opportunity coexist, maintaining a flexible strategy is key to seizing the potential eve of a bull market.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice. The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and investors should make decisions cautiously.