Ethereum Price Prediction: Under the impact of Trump's tariffs, ETH plummets 20% to $3500, with technical selling pressure and leveraged close positions accelerating the decline.

On October 11, 2025, during a period of intense trading, the price of Ethereum (ETH) experienced a significant drop, plummeting from an intraday high of nearly $4400 to a low of around $3435, a decline of nearly 20%. The immediate trigger for this dumping was U.S. President Donald Trump announcing via Truth Social that starting November 1, a 100% tariff would be imposed on all Chinese imports, and he canceled plans to meet with the Chinese president at the APEC Korea 2025 conference, exacerbating the market's “risk-off” sentiment.

Macroeconomic Risks Spread: From Trade Wars to Global Hedging

The news of Trump's announcement of tariff escalation comes at a time when the market is already under pressure, leading to a widespread decline in the prices of global risk assets.

· Traditional markets fell in sync: The S&P 500 index fell by 2.7% on the day, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased by 1.9%.

· Safe-haven assets are in demand: The price of gold futures, a safe-haven asset, has risen by more than 1%, trading at around $4,035 per ounce.

· Market sentiment turns defensive: Greg Magadini, Director of Derivatives at Amberdata, explains that this “flight to quality assets” has driven up the prices of the dollar and US Treasury bonds, as traders shift to a defensive posture.

· Trade war escalation drags down growth: Magadini pointed out that if China also takes tough trade measures, the tensions between the two major global economies may drag down global growth, prompting the market to act in a “safe-haven” manner, thereby dragging down Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.

Technical Collapse and Leverage Liquidation Accelerating the Fall

The technical aspect of Ethereum has rapidly deteriorated in this trading day, with technical selling pressure and leveraged liquidations accelerating the fall.

· Key moving average breached: Ethereum failed to hold the 20-day simple moving average of $4246.57.

· Psychological barrier collapse: When the price falls below the psychological support level of 4000 USD, the downward trend rapidly intensifies.

· Trading volume surges: The trading volume in the CEX spot market has surged to $6.87 billion, indicating that both institutional and retail traders are participating in the selling.

· Indicator turns bearish: The Relative Strength Index (RSI) falls to 34.8, approaching the oversold region. The MACD indicator clearly turns bearish, with a histogram reading of -51.26. Ethereum is currently 13.5% lower than its 50-day moving average of $4377.82, but still 21.9% higher than its 200-day moving average of $3105.75.

Leverage liquidation is the “culprit”

Stocktwits Chief Crypto Analyst Jonathan Morgan pointed out that this plunge was almost entirely due to the rapid liquidation of leveraged ETH long positions.

· Lack of confidence: Morgan cited ETF fund flow data showing that Ethereum has recently lacked buying confidence. On October 7, ETH's net inflow surged to about $420 million, but plummeted to $70 million on October 8, and turned into net outflow on October 9.

· Macroeconomic and technical mixed effects: Joe DiPasquale, CEO of BitBull Capital, believes that the fall of Ethereum is the result of the combined effects of technical forces and macro forces. The price encountered resistance around $4400, and after the momentum stagnated, the liquidation of bulls accelerated the downward trend.

Market Outlook: Focus on Key Support and Risk Mitigation

Ethereum rebounded after reaching an intraday low near 3435 USD, and then traded around 3800 USD.

(Source: TradingView)

· Key Levels: The pivot point at 3870.46 USD will be crucial in determining the short-term direction. Immediate resistance levels are at 4755 USD and 4956.78 USD. Immediate support is at the intraday low of 3435 USD.

· Market clearing: The increase in Ethereum trading volume suggests institutional profit-taking and retail capitulation selling. Automated trading systems may have exacerbated downward pressure due to stop-loss triggers.

Market participants are unwinding risk positions, and the technical support level has failed to hold. The future direction of the market will depend on further news regarding China-US trade relations.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice. The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and investors should make decisions cautiously.